I am not playing the game at all but I would Tease the Boyz down to 3 and the Over down to 43 if I had to choose. The problem with the large line is teams tend to let off the gas when they are up large.
A few weeks back I had the 49ers -4 vs Eagles:. Think back to that Goal Line stance the 49ers made in a 5 point game. If they were 2 scores there is no way they have that same intensity on defense.
The Broncos and Pats have that killer instinct, many other teams don't