I have been reading the board for awhile and finally signed up. Look forward to some good conversation.
First thing I notice for tomorrow is the Oak/LAA line. Seems awfully short for an Oakland team that has scored 6 runs in three games and shutout twice in the last 5. Have to think most people will be on LAA as a short home favorite. Neither team hitting right now but the Angels hit better against LHP but Garland has not pitched well historically against Oakland. Tough game to figure. Everything would appear to point to the Angels but they are also off of an emotional tight series with their cross-town rivals. I know Oakland is off of a similar situation but yesterday's game was too lopsided for them to be emotionally drained about.
Another game that sticks out to me is Washington. The Nats are 12-3 in Redding's 15 starts this year and should Tucker be a favorite in this game? Both teams off walk off wins so the emotional factor would seem to be even each other out except that Florida is at home. Line has shot up a lot since it opened. I guess everyone sees Florida as a small favorite against lowly washington and bets it. I don't know how they do it but they have been winning with Redding on the mound.
San Francisco looks fairly tempting tomorrow but not sure I can trust Zito against a Right handed heavy Chicago lineup but this would seem to be a bad spot (off of a rivalry series and flying west) for the struggling Cubs (losers of 4 straight and 5 out of 6). Lilly has been better lately but not the quality of pitcher to be laying a decent amount of juice on the road. Zito, as horrible as he's been has been pitching better but any success he's had has been on the road.
Detroit/Minnesota - tough call here. Galaraga great on the road this year but has been bad in two starts against Minnesota this year and the Metrodome has been a house of horrors for the Tigers lately. Perkins for the Twins can deal and pitched great against Detroit the first time. Detroit has been killing LHP so might lay off but hard to justify Detroit as a road favorite against a team that has won 11 out of 12 even though Detroit is on a six game winning streak.
NYM/STL - Interesting game. Lohse has been lights out at home and Maine struggling lately. Kind of like the Cards but this one looks like a complete tossup.
LAD/HOU - Looks like a good spot for Houston. Oswalt has been weak this year but has shown signs lately. LAD offense is pathetic and Houston does hit LHP very well but Stolts has been almost unhittable so far this year??? Wouldn't mind getting behind Oswalt but I've been burnt by him a few times this year. Dodgers could be flat after the three exhausting games against the Angels.
KC/BALT -Grienke has been on lately and Burres has been rocked. KC cooled off a little the last two days. Another tough game - probably stay away.
CLE/CWS - White Sox may come flat in this one but can't bet on Sowers even though White Sox struggle badly against LHP. Floyd good at home and White Sox on a four game win streak. Pass.
BOS/TB - Shields lousy against Boston in his career but it seems TB always wins as a home favorite. Masterson has been underrated and there is value with Boston but they aren't playing that well right now losing two out of their last three series. Different team on the road. Line looks too high but there might be a reason for that. You know Boston will get a lot of action.
Mil/AZ - Who knows. Two erratic pitchers. At first glance AZ but they are coming off of a bad loss yesterday in Miami and they are in a huge funk losing their last four series. AZ offense is awful and Mil should hit the Left hander Davis. Bush good career numbers against Arizona but he's been bad on the road his entire career. Hard to bet Milwaukee on the road but this looks like one they could win.
TX/NYY - Not much to say here. Both can score. Looks like a no brainer with Mussina against Fieldman but I can see Texas putting up some runs in this one.
SD/COL - Does anyone want to bet on either of these teams? Both on long losing streaks. No thanks.
TOR/SEA - Mariners actually playing better and Halladay off his game just slightly. Hard to bet on Toronto as a 150 road favorite but then again who wants to bet on RA Dickey. Will keep an eye on Seattle the rest of the year. They have underachieved all year obviously but they have some talent and two aces in Felix Hernandez and Bedard. They can win some games and should get some good prices. No opinion on this game though
PITT/CIN - Can't lay big juice on Harang this year. He just doesn't seem to have it. Maholm hasn't been half bad lately but I wouldn't trust him. No opinion.
Sorry to be so long-winded in my first post but would like to hear what everyone has to say.
First thing I notice for tomorrow is the Oak/LAA line. Seems awfully short for an Oakland team that has scored 6 runs in three games and shutout twice in the last 5. Have to think most people will be on LAA as a short home favorite. Neither team hitting right now but the Angels hit better against LHP but Garland has not pitched well historically against Oakland. Tough game to figure. Everything would appear to point to the Angels but they are also off of an emotional tight series with their cross-town rivals. I know Oakland is off of a similar situation but yesterday's game was too lopsided for them to be emotionally drained about.
Another game that sticks out to me is Washington. The Nats are 12-3 in Redding's 15 starts this year and should Tucker be a favorite in this game? Both teams off walk off wins so the emotional factor would seem to be even each other out except that Florida is at home. Line has shot up a lot since it opened. I guess everyone sees Florida as a small favorite against lowly washington and bets it. I don't know how they do it but they have been winning with Redding on the mound.
San Francisco looks fairly tempting tomorrow but not sure I can trust Zito against a Right handed heavy Chicago lineup but this would seem to be a bad spot (off of a rivalry series and flying west) for the struggling Cubs (losers of 4 straight and 5 out of 6). Lilly has been better lately but not the quality of pitcher to be laying a decent amount of juice on the road. Zito, as horrible as he's been has been pitching better but any success he's had has been on the road.
Detroit/Minnesota - tough call here. Galaraga great on the road this year but has been bad in two starts against Minnesota this year and the Metrodome has been a house of horrors for the Tigers lately. Perkins for the Twins can deal and pitched great against Detroit the first time. Detroit has been killing LHP so might lay off but hard to justify Detroit as a road favorite against a team that has won 11 out of 12 even though Detroit is on a six game winning streak.
NYM/STL - Interesting game. Lohse has been lights out at home and Maine struggling lately. Kind of like the Cards but this one looks like a complete tossup.
LAD/HOU - Looks like a good spot for Houston. Oswalt has been weak this year but has shown signs lately. LAD offense is pathetic and Houston does hit LHP very well but Stolts has been almost unhittable so far this year??? Wouldn't mind getting behind Oswalt but I've been burnt by him a few times this year. Dodgers could be flat after the three exhausting games against the Angels.
KC/BALT -Grienke has been on lately and Burres has been rocked. KC cooled off a little the last two days. Another tough game - probably stay away.
CLE/CWS - White Sox may come flat in this one but can't bet on Sowers even though White Sox struggle badly against LHP. Floyd good at home and White Sox on a four game win streak. Pass.
BOS/TB - Shields lousy against Boston in his career but it seems TB always wins as a home favorite. Masterson has been underrated and there is value with Boston but they aren't playing that well right now losing two out of their last three series. Different team on the road. Line looks too high but there might be a reason for that. You know Boston will get a lot of action.
Mil/AZ - Who knows. Two erratic pitchers. At first glance AZ but they are coming off of a bad loss yesterday in Miami and they are in a huge funk losing their last four series. AZ offense is awful and Mil should hit the Left hander Davis. Bush good career numbers against Arizona but he's been bad on the road his entire career. Hard to bet Milwaukee on the road but this looks like one they could win.
TX/NYY - Not much to say here. Both can score. Looks like a no brainer with Mussina against Fieldman but I can see Texas putting up some runs in this one.
SD/COL - Does anyone want to bet on either of these teams? Both on long losing streaks. No thanks.
TOR/SEA - Mariners actually playing better and Halladay off his game just slightly. Hard to bet on Toronto as a 150 road favorite but then again who wants to bet on RA Dickey. Will keep an eye on Seattle the rest of the year. They have underachieved all year obviously but they have some talent and two aces in Felix Hernandez and Bedard. They can win some games and should get some good prices. No opinion on this game though
PITT/CIN - Can't lay big juice on Harang this year. He just doesn't seem to have it. Maholm hasn't been half bad lately but I wouldn't trust him. No opinion.
Sorry to be so long-winded in my first post but would like to hear what everyone has to say.
