New system (9-0) - indicates texas tech will not win

[jmikullitz]

Teams win bowl games using offensive balance! Teams that do not have a balanced running/passing attack are defined as one-dimensional and do NOT win bowl games! I define a one-dimensional offense as either averaging less than 100 rushing yards/game AND more than 200 passing yds per game, or avg more than 200 rushing yards/game AND less than 100 passing yards per game.

The following Bowl teams qualified under this definition as having a one-dimensional offense: South Carolina, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Hawaii, Boise St, BYU, Navy, Air Force, and Georgia Tech....and all 9 teams lost their bowl games this year!

One dimensional teams do not win bowls because the opposing coaches have sufficient time to prepare schemes that will shut them down. The preparation for bowl games are not similar to preparing for a regular season. Football is like a good chess match, coaches have 4-5 times as long to prepare for the one match they wait all year for - Coaches prepare for them differently!

Texas Tech has a very high-powered offense, but they are one-dimensional. According to the system, they will lose today's game.

 

[pezgordo]

Teams win bowl games using offensive balance! Teams that do not have a balanced running/passing attack are defined as one-dimensional and do NOT win bowl games! I define a one-dimensional offense as either averaging less than 100 rushing yards/game AND more than 200 passing yds per game, or avg more than 200 rushing yards/game AND less than 100 passing yards per game.

The following Bowl teams qualified under this definition as having a one-dimensional offense: South Carolina, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Hawaii, Boise St, BYU, Navy, Air Force, and Georgia Tech....and all 9 teams lost their bowl games this year!

One dimensional teams do not win bowls because the opposing coaches have sufficient time to prepare schemes that will shut them down. The preparation for bowl games are not similar to preparing for a regular season. Football is like a good chess match, coaches have 4-5 times as long to prepare for the one match they wait all year for - Coaches prepare for them differently!

Texas Tech has a very high-powered offense, but they are one-dimensional. According to the system, they will lose today's game.

jmikullitz, I believe I understand the concept/point you are trying to make, and it makes sense. However, based on your definition of a one-dimensional team, Cincinnati, Minnesota, BYU, Boise State and Texas Tech today would not qualify because they all avg over 100 ypg rushing.

Couldn't this system or theory be better expressed by saying something like: Teams w/ a disproportionate balance between running and passing can be defined or considered one-dimensional and therefore are more likely to lose or not cover in bowl games.

I like your theory here because it makes sense and seems to have merit.

Good luck today and the remainder of the bowl season.

 

[cruisin]

So what other games left would apply to this theory?

 

[coitus_maximus]

I hate to say it but most of the Big XII schools are more pass than rush

Liking your system also, good thinking. Wish I saw this at the beginning of bowl season

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Interesting stuff, what remaining games are left under this system?

 

[GoSooners]

I hate to say it but most of the Big XII schools are more pass than rush

Liking your system also, good thinking. Wish I saw this at the beginning of bowl season

Almost every team in the country is more one than the other. But there are no teams in the Big 12 that fit into his system. Texas Tech has always been the most one dimensial team in the Big 12. But they average 115 yards rushing per game. I do agree with his Ole Miss pick though.

 

[Teaser411]

so why did one deminsional pass heavy Houston team won?

 

[wixx]

This system makes no sense.

 

[fballplaya]

so why did one deminsional pass heavy Houston team won?

Cuz they ran the ball exceptionally well....

 

[GoSooners]

so why did one deminsional pass heavy Houston team won?

Houston doesn't even come close to fitting into his system. They average 163 yards rushing per game. He's talking about teams who average less than a hundered yards in one phase of their offense.

 

[fballplaya]

This system makes no sense.

What are you confused about? He basically posted those teams who either "he" or the "nation" deems as one-dimensional have yet to win a bowl game this season.

Although I do not agree with all of his "one-dimensional" teams, it seems to have some merit to it....

 

[GoSooners]

This system makes no sense.

I think it makes a hell of a lot of sense

 

[jmikullitz]

Pezgordo& GO Sooners - Thanks for the correction and feedback. You are right! I was looking at this late last night and did not catch my mistake that it was a Phil Steel Power Play Projection for rushing/passing yardage for the bowl game based on the matchup and season history.

Still a very interesting concept about one-dimensional teams not faring well whether its strong in passing or running. As we saw all season that Navy, Air Force, Georgia Tech were all about the run, while BYU, Cinci, Boise St, and South Carolina were more pass happy teams. Theory is one-dimensional teams lose when they play teams that are more balanced.

I was all over the Mississippi selection when I sawy this - hope I'm right. Then again this is gambling, and anything can happen. That's what you gotta love about this "sport". Good luck with the rest of your Bowl selections.

Link to Phil Steele's Bowl Issue below.

http://www.zshare.net/download/52833543d20a6c5d/

 

[powerz]

This post got me wondering what TT record was in bowl games, as I think it is one of the few intelligent posts here at the RX.

From Statfox

Texas Tech is 10-20-1 in bowl games, with 5-11-1 ATS record. They have not covered the last three bowl games and are 2-8 ATS when favored. Ole Miss lost four games, but none by more than a touchdown and could have been 10-2 easily. For the season, the Rebels finished 8-3 ATS and are 11-1 against the spread in road games vs. passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards over the last 3 seasons

I have been cashing on Ole miss all season - Their offensive Co-ord (kent Austin) was a Canadian football league star QB - Last season he coached the Saskatchewan roughriders to the Championship and their QB to a MVP.
He is also and ole Miss ALUM...

Austin is a wizard look for a solid offensive game from Ole Miss..

Also got this from stat fox when moving the money line in OLE MISS games 70% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-9)


GL guys

 

[GoSooners]

This post got me wondering what TT record was in bowl games, as I think it is one of the few intelligent posts here at the RX.

From Statfox

Texas Tech is 10-20-1 in bowl games, with 5-11-1 ATS record. They have not covered the last three bowl games and are 2-8 ATS when favored. Ole Miss lost four games, but none by more than a touchdown and could have been 10-2 easily. For the season, the Rebels finished 8-3 ATS and are 11-1 against the spread in road games vs. passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards over the last 3 seasons

I have been cashing on Ole miss all season - Their offensive Co-ord (kent Austin) was a Canadian football league star QB - Last season he coached the Saskatchewan roughriders to the Championship and their QB to a MVP.
He is also and ole Miss ALUM...

Austin is a wizard look for a solid offensive game from Ole Miss..

Also got this from stat fox when moving the money line in OLE MISS games 70% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-9)


GL guys

I like Statfox...But they don't always tell you the whole picture. Tech has an overall bad record in bowl games. But Leach has a very good bowl record. And Houston Nutt is 2-5 in bowls. But I've watched these two teams play quite a few games this year. And Ole Miss was the better team coming down the stretch. So the Rebs getting points here is a plus.

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Nice hit! I followed you on this game. Is there any other game falling under this system?

 

[Raffie]

So does bama or utah fit?

 

[kingking]

Nice one, thanks, looking forward to more system plays!

 

[GoSooners]

There are no teams left that fit this system...jm, I hope you bring this system up next year before bowl season.

 

[kingking]

yes, please do.