New Mexico +18 Against Utah State.....507 Yards Rushing Last Week Against Boise State

[Leatherballs]

Another game I am looking at fellas and I would like some insight. New Mexico rushed for 507 yards against Boise State last week, finally losing 60-49 and was up in the 4th quarter. Boise's defense was allowing 160 yards a game on the ground prior to this game.

Looking at New Mexico's schedule, they have only lost by 18 points or more once this season and that was to Arizona State 58-23 back in September. All of their other losses are by 7, 11, 10, 4, and 11 points. They are averaging over 300 yards a game on the ground and I feel they could be a live dog in this situation. Obviously they can not put teams away and/or win big, but this rushing attack is something that should not go unnoticed.

I think they keep it close in this game with the mere fact they can run the football and control the clock.

Thoughts?

 

[Addicted2quack]

New Mexico is obviously a triple option team which is extremely difficult to face with little time to prepare. It's assignment football and boise states defense got exposed. On the other hand new mexico a defense is average. They score points that's whybthey stay in games. Utah state has a nasty defense, how or why I've got not clue. They swarm to the ball and shut down the run... Offensively they haven't lost a beat even tho they are on their 4th string qb...so to me im lost on this... Utah state will be at home but they are coming off a trip to Hawaii and then wyoming both resulting in wins. nex mexicos defense is 120th in total yards allowed per game.... That's horrendous, and their passing game is non existent.... If Utah state stops the run its game over early... just a heads up they beat air force at home who is a triple ot option team 34-16.... I've got zero idea tho as to a pick... If the line moves in favor of utah state then I guess try to get New Mexico above +18.... Don't hold me to it tho lol

 

[thecruncher]

I think you're right on there, Quack. My line is -16.5 so it's a definite pass. UNM got 160 of those run yards on two 75 yard TD runs. It's hard to balance the effect of huge plays on over all statistics.

 

[Leatherballs]

Well, glad you provided some solid knowledge. Good to know that Utah State shut down AF. Although New Mexico gives up a lot of yards, they have somehow kept the majority of their games close while losing them in the 2nd half. I bet if they get 3-4 stops in this game, they cover the number.

New Mexico is obviously a triple option team which is extremely difficult to face with little time to prepare. It's assignment football and boise states defense got exposed. On the other hand new mexico a defense is average. They score points that's whybthey stay in games. Utah state has a nasty defense, how or why I've got not clue. They swarm to the ball and shut down the run... Offensively they haven't lost a beat even tho they are on their 4th string qb...so to me im lost on this... Utah state will be at home but they are coming off a trip to Hawaii and then wyoming both resulting in wins. nex mexicos defense is 120th in total yards allowed per game.... That's horrendous, and their passing game is non existent.... If Utah state stops the run its game over early... just a heads up they beat air force at home who is a triple ot option team 34-16.... I've got zero idea tho as to a pick... If the line moves in favor of utah state then I guess try to get New Mexico above +18.... Don't hold me to it tho lol

 

[Leatherballs]

Cruncher you know your stuff so maybe I should look elsewhere. Maybe I fell in love with the explosive offense against Boise. If anything, I am sure that burst of offense from New Mexico is motivating the coaching staff at Utah State to take a harder look at what they are doing.

I think you're right on there, Quack. My line is -16.5 so it's a definite pass. UNM got 160 of those run yards on two 75 yard TD runs. It's hard to balance the effect of huge plays on over all statistics.

 

[thecruncher]

Yeah, USU had a big halftime lead against AFA and basically shut down their own offense in the 2nd half, just running the ball a lot to each clock. It made for a good 2nd half bet on AFA, as AFA has a decent run defense and they limited USU to just 3 2nd half points. USU does tend to get really conservative with a big lead. In the 2nd half against Hawaii they threw the ball I think only 4 times! lol. So that is an advantage for UNM here, USU doesn't mind going vanilla, opening up the possibility of a backdoor. The problem, still, is that UNM has a gawdawful run defense, (I rate it 2nd worst in FBS), so USU can still score even when UNM knows they are just going to run the ball.

 

[GoSooners]

I think you're right on there, Quack. My line is -16.5 so it's a definite pass. UNM got 160 of those run yards on two 75 yard TD runs. It's hard to balance the effect of huge plays on over all statistics.

That's exactly what my line is on the game. I had New Mexico last week for a small play because teams coming off a bye week and favored by more than 10 on the road only cover a little over 40% of their games. Clemson was in the same spot last week coming off a bye and couldn't cover against WF on the road. I had that one as an official play because Clemson doesn't have all that great of an offense either to cover the big number. I've learned that winning teams who have an easy game with bigger fish to fry the next week don't always come in 100% focused. Boise and Clemson pretty much sleepwalked through their games last week. So I wouldn't put too much weight in those games.

 

[Addicted2quack]

Leather balls, if you're looking for some bets that might be a little more appealing with less ambiguity, take a peek at thursday nights when ECU goes to cincy and is only a 3 point favorite ...I already jumped on ecu at -3. Reason why is pretty simple. They just came off a frustrating loss in a bad weather game... They are both coming off a bye week but cincy isn't a defensive juggernaut by any means, nor is it a hostile place to play. I'm banking on ecu coming out hungry on both sides of the ball and looking to bury cincy... This could be a high scoring affair, predominantly in favor of ecu. I see them covering 3 easily based on the motivation factor alone, but they are also very much the better team

 

[Leatherballs]

I will give it a look. I tend to always bypass points on the road and particularly those that around 3 or lower. I will check out your post on it again. I think you posted a thread right?

Leather balls, if you're looking for some bets that might be a little more appealing with less ambiguity, take a peek at thursday nights when ECU goes to cincy and is only a 3 point favorite ...I already jumped on ecu at -3. Reason why is pretty simple. They just came off a frustrating loss in a bad weather game... They are both coming off a bye week but cincy isn't a defensive juggernaut by any means, nor is it a hostile place to play. I'm banking on ecu coming out hungry on both sides of the ball and looking to bury cincy... This could be a high scoring affair, predominantly in favor of ecu. I see them covering 3 easily based on the motivation factor alone, but they are also very much the better team