4 Unit Play. #826. Take Toledo -4 over Northern Illinois (Sunday @ 2pm est). Congrats on yet another winning week in college hoops. We went 4-2 overall in hoops this week as we look to go 5-2 on the week. There is a big difference between 5-2 and 4-3 and given that we hit Kansas yesterday and have won back to back weeks in hoops, I feel good about today. The Rockets of Toledo was not a hard pick for the POD today. Keep in mind they have just 6 wins this year - but all come at home. Yes, Northern Illinois is a team that has 10 wins, but did you know they have yet to win a conference game on the road this year? Remember, Northern Illinois is a team that has 5 conference wins as compared to Toledo that has just 4 conference wins. But, Northern Illinois is a completely different team on the road. NI shoots just a clip over 58% from the Free Throw line overall and when on the highway, they simply do not get the calls. Tack on the fact that Toledo gets the home cooking calls today, has revenge from an ugly 51-75 loss earlier this year, this makes out to be a similar game for us when we took Columbia over Princeton earlier this week in college. Remember, Toledo shoots 64% from the line which although is not great, is sufficient enough and better than NI for certain. Toledo has some quality wins at home this year and they have defeated even better ranking teams than Northern Illinois. This includes wins over Western Michigan at home, Ball State at home, Central Michigan at home and Eastern Michigan at home. In short, these are all teams around the 225 to 260 range that Toledo has taken care of when they are on their home court. Having said this, NI is a team that has a power ranking over 280. Plus, on the road this, team has a power ranking outside the top 300. In short, let's take the team in Toledo who has a great deal of revenge, is at home for Senior Day, shoots better free throws, comes home after a tough loss to Central Michigan on the road and has beaten even better teams at home than Northern Illinois so this is a game they likely win by a 10-12 point margin in my opinion. NI has yet to win a conference road game this year once again and are 0-7 ATS as road underdogs so why do we expect that to change on the last regular season game of the year for them? The Rockets have covered their last 5 contests as a favorite.