New Hampshire Prediction

[Shotgun]

I'm going with momentum picks:

Dean 31%
Kerry 29
Edwards 19
Lieberman 11
Clark 10%

Everyone but Lieberman moves on.

 

[FloydGondolli]

Very close, I agree with your 3-5, but I would flip-flop Kerry and Dean. I think Kerry wins by about 5% over Dean.

 

[D2bets]

Kerry 35
Dean 23
Clark 15
Edwards 14
Lieberman 10
Others 3

 

[WildBill]

I have no feeling on this one and the upcoming primaries. I think everything from here on out is beyond prediction. This whole thing could come down to who makes the costliest mistakes, a la Dean's speech. Dean still is alive and could pull this out, but he used up his one get out of jail for free card and I don't know if voters will even think of giving him another.

 

[FloydGondolli]

I heard on TV tonight that Independents can vote in the Dem primary (I knew that) but that almost all of the polls are only polls of registered Dems.

Does anyone know of a poll that includes Independents and not just registered Dems?? My guess is Lieberman and Clark would benefit most from Independents.

 

[WildBill]

Dean probably will do well too as that piece is probably the most disaffected and least likely to vote. Never forget the power of media and proximity and with Kerry and Dean being neighbors that probably gives them a little extra push.