As always, depends what poll you look at:
ARG 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking
3-Day Results Jan 16-18 Jan 17-19 Jan 18-20 Jan 19-21 Jan 20-22
Clark 20% 19% 18% 19% 20%
Dean 28% 28% 26% 22% 18%
Edwards 8% 8% 9% 9% 11%
Kerry 19% 20% 24% 27% 31%
Kucinich 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Lieberman 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 15% 13% 13% 14% 12%
Sample size 617 617 718 811 806
Democrats 432 436 511 573 558
Undeclared 185 181 207 238 248
Undeclared (%) 30% 29% 29% 29% 31%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
Kerry is clearly rising and Dean clearly falling. Clark and Edwards are basically flat. My Tuesday prediction:
Kerry 29
Clark 22
Dean 21
Edwards 14
Lieberman 11
Kucinich 2
Sharpton 1
The big day, however, is Feb 3, when there are 9 states up for grabs. That's win or cut bait day. If a candidate hasn't won a state by that day then it's sayonara. I expect the top 4 candidates will all claim wins that day and none of them will even be close to having 50% of the total delegates.
ARG 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking
3-Day Results Jan 16-18 Jan 17-19 Jan 18-20 Jan 19-21 Jan 20-22
Clark 20% 19% 18% 19% 20%
Dean 28% 28% 26% 22% 18%
Edwards 8% 8% 9% 9% 11%
Kerry 19% 20% 24% 27% 31%
Kucinich 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Lieberman 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 15% 13% 13% 14% 12%
Sample size 617 617 718 811 806
Democrats 432 436 511 573 558
Undeclared 185 181 207 238 248
Undeclared (%) 30% 29% 29% 29% 31%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
Kerry is clearly rising and Dean clearly falling. Clark and Edwards are basically flat. My Tuesday prediction:
Kerry 29
Clark 22
Dean 21
Edwards 14
Lieberman 11
Kucinich 2
Sharpton 1
The big day, however, is Feb 3, when there are 9 states up for grabs. That's win or cut bait day. If a candidate hasn't won a state by that day then it's sayonara. I expect the top 4 candidates will all claim wins that day and none of them will even be close to having 50% of the total delegates.
New 1/23/04 poll at Zogby has
Kerry
30
Dean
22
Clark
14
Edwards
7
Lieberman
6
Kucinich
1
Sharpton
0.1
Undecided
17
Strange how you seek out the only poll that has Clark in 2nd. Gallup and Zogby are probably the two best known polling organizations out there.
BTW Boston Globe has Kerry-31, Dean-21, Clark-16, Edwards-11.
Kerry
30
Dean
22
Clark
14
Edwards
7
Lieberman
6
Kucinich
1
Sharpton
0.1
Undecided
17
Strange how you seek out the only poll that has Clark in 2nd. Gallup and Zogby are probably the two best known polling organizations out there.
BTW Boston Globe has Kerry-31, Dean-21, Clark-16, Edwards-11.
Zogby's polls have a terrible history. I don't trust him at all. ARG has been daily tracking NH for a month, not just recently. Been following that one the whole time. The last single day of tracking actually had Kerry 34, Clark 21, Dean 13, Edwards 13. The 3-day polls just don't relect the full fallout from the Iowa debacle for Dean. Dean may very well slip to 4th in NH behind Edwards.
Clark didn't do himself any favors last night. Guess he made some more brilliant statements this morning calling affluent people unpatriotic if they didn't want to pay more in taxes.
By the way D2 please tell me what services he provided for Axicom and why you anti-Patriot act folks aren't up in arms.
By the way D2 please tell me what services he provided for Axicom and why you anti-Patriot act folks aren't up in arms.
Haven't seen anything today about the taxes thing. Got a link on that?
As for Axicom and Patriot Act, here are the Q&A's on that subject last night:
GRIFFITH: General Clark, Patriot Act, come under an awful lot of criticism, as you well know. Many say it erodes our personal liberties, while, of course, it's clear that we all want a secure country. How would your administration revisit the Patriot Act and strike a balance between national security and personal liberties?
CLARK: Well, I'm very concerned about the Patriot Act. It was passed in haste. It's very long. It's got dozens and dozens and dozens of changes. What we would do is suspend all the portions of the Patriot Act that have to do with search and seizure: sneak-and-peek searches; library records; and so on. If they want to do a wiretap, they can do it the old-fashioned way, go to a judge with probable cause. And then, bring the whole act back into the Congress. Lay it out. Ask former Attorney General John Ashcroft to come and testify on his use and abuse of the Patriot Act. Just lay it out. What provisions were used, for what, for what good? Why couldn't it have been done another way? And then we're going to put together the right kind of authorities for law enforcement to keep us safe. But, Tom, we cannot win the war on terror by giving up the very freedoms we're fighting to protect.
DISTASO: General Clark, you've already discussed your concerns about the Patriot Act and support for civil liberties and privacy rights. But as a lobbyist for Axiom Corp, you helped secure a federal contract for the system known as CAPPS II, a passenger-screening program which has been criticized by the ACLU for violating people's rights to privacy.
How does CAPPS II, which I know many air-traveler advocacy groups are concerned about, not do that, not step over the line? Or does it, now that it's about to be in place?
CLARK: Well, I don't know about CAPPS II because I have not seen the program, and I don't think many of the people who are worried about it have. Here's what I believe. I believe that we need to use all of the tools and tradecraft at our disposal to help keep this country safe. And we need to do so in a way that doesn't violate people's privacy.
And when I was consulting with Axiom — and I was on the board of the company, and I did take them around and introduce them to various members of the United States government, the Defense Department and so forth, because their technology will improve our security. But I was insistent that we do so with a firm grip on the privacy issues. Had I still been on that board when all this was going through, I would have insisted that the ACLU and others be brought in to pre-approve CAPPS II. Whether that was done or not, I have no idea. But there's nothing intrinsic in the system that we're using that can't be made fully compatible with all of the privacy concerns.
My understanding is that he left Axicom before CAPPS II was created. As someone who is concerned about the Patriot Act, his answers fully satisfy me.
As for Axicom and Patriot Act, here are the Q&A's on that subject last night:
GRIFFITH: General Clark, Patriot Act, come under an awful lot of criticism, as you well know. Many say it erodes our personal liberties, while, of course, it's clear that we all want a secure country. How would your administration revisit the Patriot Act and strike a balance between national security and personal liberties?
CLARK: Well, I'm very concerned about the Patriot Act. It was passed in haste. It's very long. It's got dozens and dozens and dozens of changes. What we would do is suspend all the portions of the Patriot Act that have to do with search and seizure: sneak-and-peek searches; library records; and so on. If they want to do a wiretap, they can do it the old-fashioned way, go to a judge with probable cause. And then, bring the whole act back into the Congress. Lay it out. Ask former Attorney General John Ashcroft to come and testify on his use and abuse of the Patriot Act. Just lay it out. What provisions were used, for what, for what good? Why couldn't it have been done another way? And then we're going to put together the right kind of authorities for law enforcement to keep us safe. But, Tom, we cannot win the war on terror by giving up the very freedoms we're fighting to protect.
DISTASO: General Clark, you've already discussed your concerns about the Patriot Act and support for civil liberties and privacy rights. But as a lobbyist for Axiom Corp, you helped secure a federal contract for the system known as CAPPS II, a passenger-screening program which has been criticized by the ACLU for violating people's rights to privacy.
How does CAPPS II, which I know many air-traveler advocacy groups are concerned about, not do that, not step over the line? Or does it, now that it's about to be in place?
CLARK: Well, I don't know about CAPPS II because I have not seen the program, and I don't think many of the people who are worried about it have. Here's what I believe. I believe that we need to use all of the tools and tradecraft at our disposal to help keep this country safe. And we need to do so in a way that doesn't violate people's privacy.
And when I was consulting with Axiom — and I was on the board of the company, and I did take them around and introduce them to various members of the United States government, the Defense Department and so forth, because their technology will improve our security. But I was insistent that we do so with a firm grip on the privacy issues. Had I still been on that board when all this was going through, I would have insisted that the ACLU and others be brought in to pre-approve CAPPS II. Whether that was done or not, I have no idea. But there's nothing intrinsic in the system that we're using that can't be made fully compatible with all of the privacy concerns.
My understanding is that he left Axicom before CAPPS II was created. As someone who is concerned about the Patriot Act, his answers fully satisfy me.
By the way, the scoop from the RNC is not to whack Kerry too badly until he's the nominee. They learned their lesson with Dean. They figure that Dean is already buried, so if they happened to knock Kerry out of it, then they'd get either Edwards or Clark, both from the South, both much tougher matchups. They preferred Dean, but at this point they don't mind getting Kerry. That's why the Fox moderators pitched him softballs last night.
Had I still been on that board when all this was going through, I would have insisted that the ACLU and others be brought in to pre-approve CAPPS II.
________________________________________________
This guy is so full of sh_t his eyes are brown. Lots of companies bring in the ACLU to approve their product.
The self destruction has begun!
________________________________________________
This guy is so full of sh_t his eyes are brown. Lots of companies bring in the ACLU to approve their product.
First poll taken post-Iowa from any state other than NH:
1/23/2004 Oklahoma Democratic Primary
2004 Survey USA Election Polls
Clark 32%
Edwards 23%
Kerry 17%
Dean 10%
Lieberman 8%
Other 7%
Undecided 5%
Data Collected
1/21/04 - 1/22/04
Geography
State of Oklahoma
Sample Population
551 Certain Voters
Margin of Error
4.3%
Client
KFOR-TV Oklahoma City
KJRH-TV Tulsa
1/23/2004 Oklahoma Democratic Primary
2004 Survey USA Election Polls
Clark 32%
Edwards 23%
Kerry 17%
Dean 10%
Lieberman 8%
Other 7%
Undecided 5%
Data Collected
1/21/04 - 1/22/04
Geography
State of Oklahoma
Sample Population
551 Certain Voters
Margin of Error
4.3%
Client
KFOR-TV Oklahoma City
KJRH-TV Tulsa
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Floyd Gondolli:
http://www.gallup.com/images/Poll/Releases/pr040123i.gif <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
as i suspected. if the trend continues Clark & Edwards will fight for 3rd
http://www.gallup.com/images/Poll/Releases/pr040123i.gif <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
as i suspected. if the trend continues Clark & Edwards will fight for 3rd
