This is going to be a great football game. Before I analysis this game and give you my prediction. I would like to convey a thought to you, "opening line bets" from my own experience betting at books here in Nevada with my favorite mentor and best friend J.J. . Line opener really comes from Great Guru of the line Jeff Sagarin, Mr. Stats & Mr. computer & and most important a Mr.Wall Street Broker. I am going to use this game as an example. Green Bay really opened at -4 to -3 on flip side New England +4 To + 2 1/2 and now at +3 which Green Bay moved too, around town 9: 45 am PST. These opening lines do not stay on betting board long my friends, if you snooze you lose making your bet on the opener/ LOL !!. This is really the line +4 or -4[ other NFL games you might see real big jump sometimes. This line stays open for select few, Whales and sharpies and little old man smoking his pipe at the front seat, 20 big giant steps from the betting window and the odds board will also make his move. We as our group call these Type of gambler as" minute men". Remember this opening line is not up that long in every book in the state. The big books will adjust the line on what they see percentage bets made on either team in that short of time. In our modern technology and communications not like the old era of sports betting, Every book in the state will adjust the opening line as country second quicker then N.Y.minute.
I use to know Frank Lefty Rosenthal who was sports book manager at Stardust in 70S. J.J. myself use too hang out with Lefty Rosenthal and Bob Martin who told us stories about how the line got ironed out before it was given to the rest of the world. The bar was Thoroughbred lounge owned by Bill Miller[Boxing promoter for strip fight of the week at the silver slipper casino on the strip in the 70s} where we use meet.The book we use you hang out was right next door where we use make our bets Sammie Cohen's Santa Anita Sports-Book across street from Stardust in 70s. Well to day the opening line adjusts lot faster with technology every body in the country is adjusting at the same time . You won,t lay the points in this situation-4 but take the points+4 and big a bang of boom line drops to -3 and all the social betters in the game with Greenbay[ home field advantage]. Well these guys betting must really have to win with a touchdown margin from books point of view, Well now by game time spread went to -2 1/2.. Wow Field goal might win this bet. where J.J. has this game at a 1/2 point with home team advantage to Greenbay compared to -3 to -2/1/2 vegas line now so whats this line tell you?. But here is the curve ball I going to throw at friends and members of Rx on game day. Both Great Guru of the line Jeff Sagarin & J.J. Bascus has about the same power rating NE at 3 and Greenbay at 14. Lower the number better rating. Consecutive Patriots victories against NFC North teams, which is the longest current streak any team has against another division. The Patriots' last loss to an NFC North team was a 28-10 loss to the Packers on Oct. 13, 2002. Also looking at stats of both teams, quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers I see this game pretty even. Here comes another curve ball at you guys Magic Tom Brady career in Red Zone:140 TD passes, 3 INT (just threw his 3rd) His team mates call him the professor[ no kidding].
So you think ladies and gentlemen of the jury [ Rx members] which team I favor to win. After reading this tread, you might call me Senile & Change of life old man who is a crazy NFL gambler. So you guys be nice with your comments and reply's until I start having a couple good belts of Scotch whiskey shots with a spring mt. bottle water in me after 12 noon PST[ our post time for the group for cocktails] here at book before your reply's thinking I am crazy//LOL!!! LOL!!!! LOL!!!! I will tell you guys why don,t we ask late Bob Martin about Opening line movement?
PS. [ taken from some web site] But true I was there>> At Bob Martins funeral some years ago, the old-timers came to pay their last respects. Everyone that I spoke with remembered him fondly and so did I. They all told their favorite stories of a time when the wise guys gathered at Sammie Cohen's Santa Anita Sports-Book across street from Stardust, where J.J. Smitty and myself use to hang out too. The conversation was peppered with nicknames and laughter. This wasn't your normal funeral. It truly was a celebration of one of the finest men Las Vegas has ever known. Bob Martin wasn't just another guy. He was well loved. Tough guys in a tough town remembered him as a guy who had the respect of everyone. He was smart, quick-witted and dead-pan funny. He was stand-up. The best odds maker the industry has ever seen.
Thanks all for reading my thread and good luck to you all this Sunday !!!!
Hårr¥THëHÄT
I use to know Frank Lefty Rosenthal who was sports book manager at Stardust in 70S. J.J. myself use too hang out with Lefty Rosenthal and Bob Martin who told us stories about how the line got ironed out before it was given to the rest of the world. The bar was Thoroughbred lounge owned by Bill Miller[Boxing promoter for strip fight of the week at the silver slipper casino on the strip in the 70s} where we use meet.The book we use you hang out was right next door where we use make our bets Sammie Cohen's Santa Anita Sports-Book across street from Stardust in 70s. Well to day the opening line adjusts lot faster with technology every body in the country is adjusting at the same time . You won,t lay the points in this situation-4 but take the points+4 and big a bang of boom line drops to -3 and all the social betters in the game with Greenbay[ home field advantage]. Well these guys betting must really have to win with a touchdown margin from books point of view, Well now by game time spread went to -2 1/2.. Wow Field goal might win this bet. where J.J. has this game at a 1/2 point with home team advantage to Greenbay compared to -3 to -2/1/2 vegas line now so whats this line tell you?. But here is the curve ball I going to throw at friends and members of Rx on game day. Both Great Guru of the line Jeff Sagarin & J.J. Bascus has about the same power rating NE at 3 and Greenbay at 14. Lower the number better rating. Consecutive Patriots victories against NFC North teams, which is the longest current streak any team has against another division. The Patriots' last loss to an NFC North team was a 28-10 loss to the Packers on Oct. 13, 2002. Also looking at stats of both teams, quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers I see this game pretty even. Here comes another curve ball at you guys Magic Tom Brady career in Red Zone:140 TD passes, 3 INT (just threw his 3rd) His team mates call him the professor[ no kidding].
So you think ladies and gentlemen of the jury [ Rx members] which team I favor to win. After reading this tread, you might call me Senile & Change of life old man who is a crazy NFL gambler. So you guys be nice with your comments and reply's until I start having a couple good belts of Scotch whiskey shots with a spring mt. bottle water in me after 12 noon PST[ our post time for the group for cocktails] here at book before your reply's thinking I am crazy//LOL!!! LOL!!!! LOL!!!! I will tell you guys why don,t we ask late Bob Martin about Opening line movement?
PS. [ taken from some web site] But true I was there>> At Bob Martins funeral some years ago, the old-timers came to pay their last respects. Everyone that I spoke with remembered him fondly and so did I. They all told their favorite stories of a time when the wise guys gathered at Sammie Cohen's Santa Anita Sports-Book across street from Stardust, where J.J. Smitty and myself use to hang out too. The conversation was peppered with nicknames and laughter. This wasn't your normal funeral. It truly was a celebration of one of the finest men Las Vegas has ever known. Bob Martin wasn't just another guy. He was well loved. Tough guys in a tough town remembered him as a guy who had the respect of everyone. He was smart, quick-witted and dead-pan funny. He was stand-up. The best odds maker the industry has ever seen.
Thanks all for reading my thread and good luck to you all this Sunday !!!!
Hårr¥THëHÄT
