New England matchup vs Denver

[coitus_maximus]

The matchups are Talib/ Thomas....Dennard/ Decker.... and Arrington/Ryan vs. Welker. And Collins/ J. Thomas The weakest link on the pass matchups is Welker vs Arrington or rookie Ryan. I expect double coverage most of the time on Welker, but as you can see along with Moreno who has been running the ball well, Peyton has lots of weapons at this disposal. If you watched Indy vs. NWE last week, their safeties were horrible. But their was enough pressure to make Luck have a few mistakes. Against Denver, NWE will have to be flawless in its play. I personally don't think Brady and Co. can match up to Denver's offense especially in mild conditions at home.

I expect Bellicheck to pound that front 7 with Blount, Vareen, and a bit of Ridley. What I have noticed is that NWE has run the ball quite a bit more since the Miami defeat. They went from about 22 running plays to 34 run plays. Chromartie and Bailey will be the main DB's there, but the abscence of Harris will be an issue. What I have noticed is that the Def. front 7 gave a lot of problems vs. San Diego, but SD had issues with running the ball. Ryan Matthews only had 5 carries and the bulk of the carries was done by little Danny Woodhead.

My analysis is the following, I beleive NWE will pound the ball vs. Den. knowing that they will need to eat clock and try to keep Den off the field. No doubt Den will be able to score with poor matchups against Welker and maybe J. Thomas who is a beast. I really believe that New England will not be down early like they were the last time they played. Denver front 7 may at first get some pressure on Brady but the difference between him and Rivers is that SD had no run game. I expect Brady to hand the ball off at least 30 times and will take play action when necessary. Even though the NWE receivers will not be as talented, the play action should throw Den db's off a bit. I see this game as fairly close in which the last possession may determine who wins the game. IMO, I wouldn't be surprised at all if New England won, but will take New England and the points +5 and if you can get +7 later in the week, doubt it, but would jump on that immediately. +5 is available everywhere and that is my play.

Any thoughts or analysis is welcome.

 

[DC.]

new england wins 30-27

 

[sendacash]

One thing to consider is that NE is just a 4-4 team on the road this year, while Den is 8-1 at home. Belicheck likes to take away what the other teams does best and one of the things Den does really well is convert on third downs ranked #1 at 47.71%. That might mean trying to limit Welker whom the Pats are obviously very familiar with. Welker wore an extra large helmet last week to protect him for another concussion, not sure if it limited him in any way maybe it would be hard to see in? Something to keep in mind though is that Julius Thomas has really blossomed into a pass catching TE and did not play in the previous match up.

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Denver Broncos head coach John Fox had just been asked about how teams all over the league seem intent on finding a guy like Julius Thomas these days.

“I think they're hard to find,'' Fox said. “It's kind of a unique position because you have to block and be a receiver -- and that is a unique, physical body to find, with that athleticism. It's like trying to find a center in the NBA. I mean, it's not easy to do.''

Fox could just as well been talking about why the position is so difficult to defend in today's NFL as much as he was about the difficulty in finding the guy to play it in the first place.
[h=4]Julius Thomas[/h] [h=5]#80 TE
Denver Broncos[/h] 2013 STATS

• Rec65
• Yds788
• TD12
• Avg12.1
• Long74
• YAC348

In Sunday's AFC Championship the full spectrum of the position will be on display in the two team's offenses. The guy who could do it all, the matchup nightmare of nightmares at the position, Rob Gronkowski is on injured reserve for the Patriots, so he is not on the Broncos' defensive to-do list.

But in Thomas, the Broncos have the kind of pass catcher everyone covets at the position in this wide-open era. He is riding a breakout season that has included 65 receptions to go with 12 touchdowns as well as an invitation to the Pro Bowl. Thomas is too quick, too agile with too much top-end speed for most of the linebackers who have tried to shadow him this year. He's too strong, with too much reach, for most of the defensive backs who have taken their turn as well. And while his blocking remains a work in progress, when Peyton Manning throws you the ball on a third-and-17 late in the fourth quarter with a playoff game on the line you have arrived as a go-to guy in the pattern.

Even though the Patriots have a linebacker with athleticism in rookie Jamie Collins -- the former safety ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at last February's scouting combine at 250 pounds and his drop into the passing lane to snatch an Andrew Luck pass last weekend had the look of a cornerback in coverage -- New England's defensive staff will still face plenty of difficult choices in what to do with Thomas. Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase is willing to line up Thomas all over the formation, often forcing defenses to put bigger players in the open spaces where they are not nearly as comfortable.

But the Broncos will have their own problems with the position as well. While the Patriots' Michael Hoomanawanui had just one catch in last Saturday night's Patriots win over the Indianapolis Colts, he was no less a matchup problem for the Colts in that game. As the Patriots pounded out 234 yards rushing, it was Hoomanawanui who was often creating the crease on the outside edge, consistently allowing the Patriots to plow open holes as if they had six offensive linemen in the game.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick is one of the game's most proficient practitioners of situational football. Belichick consistently creates the matchups on both sides of the ball that suit his team the best against a particular opponent and sticks to it.

To that end Belichick played Hoomanawanui on every offensive snap in the game -- 74 in all. Overall the Patriots used a two-tight end look for 34 plays in the game.

It means Broncos defensive ends Jeremy Mincey, Robert Ayers and Shaun Phillips will have to find a way to disengage from Hoomanawanui and hold the edge. Because if running backs LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley are getting the corner down after down against the Broncos that will be every bit as disruptive as Thomas helping the Broncos to move the chains.

 

[Samhain]

Denver 35
New England 24

 

[SerfCap]

The line movement has me thinking the Patriots are a sucker bet and the Broncos are the play. Trying not to over-think this and go with what we know and see. Even if I do lean Denver, the one thing I can't get over is the coaching advantage the Patriots have. It easily goes to Belichick. BB vs. Peyton/Fox.

 

[RookieDL]

don't be a sucker and read that much into the line movement. The line should stay between key numbers 4 and 7. Doesn't take much money at all to move in between these numbers.

 

[r.a.]

Like the rest here I believe Bill Bellichick is an excellent coach but I don't think he is the best of all time and doesn't walk on water. The Patriots last won the Super Bowl NINE years ago and honestly were out coached in their two more recent Super Bowl losses to the New York Giants. I don't know how good this Patriot team is but with the personnel loses they've suffered, Mayo, Wolfork, Gronkowski etc. they are suspect. The Patriots are not at home and I don't think Manning will throw four interceptions.

 

[AK_Bandito]

I got NE winning 34-32, agree with your analysis.:toast:

 

[skins85]

Pats havnt won a road playoff game since 2006, and everyone should remember how that was a miracle. google Marlon McCree if you don't.

Expect a better game from Welker this time around, Denver rolls in this one i think. too much credit given to the pats offense for doing well against the colts--who gave up 86 points in 2 playoff games. meanwhile denver did pretty well against a san diego defense that played well in both games defensively.
Tom Brady is great, but Denver is a team on a mission this year.
35-24 denver

 

[coitus_maximus]

Thanks for all the analysis and I do see the line moving to -6 now for Denver such as the Greek, but between all their matchups, there has never been more than a TD difference. Again may wait to see if line may even go Den -6.5. Agree NWE has been poor on the road, but I really don't see them losing by more than 7pts even with the injuries placed on NWE.

 

[sendacash]

Don't expect as many Pats fans in the stands @ Mile High for this game:

http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_24930711/go-home-chowderheads-broncos-patriots

 

[TheChathamPontiff]

New England's 4-4 road record is highly deceiving. They had a chance to win all four games in the 4th quarter and the loss at the Jets had the questionable FG block penalty that gave NY a second chance at the GW FG. I don't give any credence to that record in looking at the Denver matchup. They lost the road games by an average of 4.5 points per loss. Not terrible. Weird how the spread is 5...

Pats will come out no huddle, up tempo and throwing. The pass will set up the run, not the other way around. If they have success early in the air, Denver will be in trouble, because the ground and pound will take over.