[h=1]Way-too-early 2015 mock draft[/h][h=3]Taking a first look at the players who could make up the '15 draft class[/h]By Todd McShay | ESPN Insider
I'd say that it's never too early to talk about next year's NFL draft ... but it's too early to be talking about next year's NFL draft. Regardless, we understand that with the 2014 draft in the books, fans are interested in knowing now the names that we could be talking about when the 2015 draft process rolls around, so as the headline indicates, we're taking a way-too-early look at who those players might be.
A couple of important notes:
• This mock draft should carry zero weight in the decision process for underclassmen after the season. For one, the NFL draft advisory committee was assembled for that very purpose. For another, we haven't yet studied these players with an eye toward their NFL potential. We'll begin that process later this month by studying last season's tape on approximately 150 prospects prior to the start of the 2014 college football season. And by the time next year's NFL draft rolls around, we will have a database of more than 2,000 prospects and will have done full evaluations (which require a minimum of four tapes studied for each player) on more than 350 of the top prospects.
Since the rookie wage-scale changes in 2011 (based on the new collective bargaining deal), there has been a significant growth in underclassmen departing early for the NFL draft: 56 in 2011, 65 in 2012, 73 in 2013 and 98 in 2014. Underclassmen who are considering ignoring their draft projection based on the argument that it's far more important to get the clock running toward their second NFL contract should consider two facts: (1) 44 percent of underclassmen who declared early from 2011 to 2013 were no longer on NFL rosters by the end of last season; (2) of the 98 underclassmen who declared early this year, 36 went undrafted.
• Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders was kind enough to provide us with a 2015 draft order based off of his early projected win totals for every team (rounded off to create a win-loss record, and projected SOS numbers breaking the ties). That's the order we'll use for the purposes of this projection.
With all of that out of the way, here is our way-too-early mock draft for 2015. And, as always, draft-eligible non-seniors are denoted with an asterisk.
[h=3]1. Oakland Raiders (FBO projected record: 4-12): Leonard Williams*, DL, USC[/h]The 6-foot-5, 290-pound Williams can move extremely well for his size, and that translated to him being very disruptive and productive for the Trojans in 2013. He showed impressive awareness, quickness and a good motor.
[h=3]2. Cleveland Browns (6-10): Amari Cooper*, WR, Alabama[/h]
The Browns didn't take a receiver in the 2014 draft, so we'll give them one early here. Cooper was banged up early on last season but by the end of the year he was back to his dominant freshman-year form. He has good savvy and body control to go with his size and speed.
[h=3]3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): Cedric Ogbuehi*, OL, Texas A&M[/h]
The Aggies have had an offensive lineman taken in the top 10 of the draft in back-to-back seasons, and Ogbuehi has flashed the potential to become the third. He has played both guard and tackle at A&M and figures to be one of the top offensive linemen in the nation in 2014.
[h=3]4. Washington Redskins (6-10): Dante Fowler Jr.*, DE, Florida[/h]
Fowler plays with an edge and a high-revving motor, and has maintained his speed to this point in his career even while adding bulk. He has good explosiveness and closing burst, and violent hands. The Gators have played him all along the defensive line and at outside linebacker.
[h=3]5. New York Jets (6-10): Jameis Winston*, QB, Florida State[/h]
If this scenario were to unfold and the Jets went 6-10 next season, chances are they'd be looking for a QB. There's no denying the Heisman-winning Winston's talent -- he shows good arm strength and accuracy to go with very good pocket presence and decision-making -- but his maturity and behavior off the field will be watched closely.
[h=3]6. Minnesota Vikings (6-10): Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon[/h]
Ekpre-Olomu should be one of the top cornerbacks in college football this season. He is a fluid and flexible athlete with good ball skills and playmaking ability, and he is also a willing run defender.
[h=3]7. St. Louis Rams (6-10): Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa[/h]
The Rams would continue to build their offensive line in this scenario with the selection of Scherff, who brings prototypical size to the left tackle position at 6-5, 320 pounds.
[h=3]8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Marcus Mariota*, QB, Oregon[/h]
Mariota was one of the nation's top quarterbacks last season, and by returning to Oregon he'll have the opportunity to improve upon his mechanics and accuracy and come closer to fulfilling his very high upside. He's a big-time running threat because of his speed and size combo (6-4, 211 pounds).
[h=3]9. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Mario Edwards Jr.*, DE, Florida State[/h]
Edwards was one of the key contributors to the Seminoles' national-title-winning defense last season. The former No. 1 overall recruit, Edwards has good size at 6-3, 277 pounds.
[h=3]10. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo Bills): Landon Collins*, S, Alabama[/h]
As part of the trade that allowed the Bills (projected by Football Outsiders to finish 7-9 next season) to move up from the ninth pick to the fourth pick to draft Sammy Watkins, the Browns now own Buffalo's 2015 first-round pick -- in this case, a top-10 selection. Collins brings great speed and playmaking to the safety position.
[h=3]11. Dallas Cowboys (7-9): Nelson Agholor*, WR, USC[/h]
Agholor is keeping up USC's tradition of talented wide receivers. At 6-foot, 185 pounds, Agholor has good speed and the ability to make defenders miss with the ball in his hands (8 total TDs).
[h=3]12. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Shilique Calhoun*, DE/OLB, Michigan State[/h]
Calhoun recorded 7.5 sacks last season on a very good Michigan State defense, and he could be one of the best defenders in the country in 2014. He has good size at 6-4, 250 pounds.
[h=3]13. Detroit Lions (7-9): P.J. Williams*, CB, Florida State[/h]
Williams had an impressive 2013 campaign in a very talented Seminoles secondary, including coming up with an interception in FSU's BCS title game victory over Auburn. At 6-foot, 190 pounds, he has good size for a corner.
[h=3]14. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State[/h]
Greene's teammate Kelvin Benjamin went in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft, but it was actually Greene who was the Seminoles' most prolific receiver (and according to Winston, its most reliable). He hauled in 76 passes for 1,128 yards (both team highs).
[h=3]15. Houston Texans (8-8): Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor[/h]
The Texans could be looking to draft a quarterback in the first round of next year's draft, after waiting until the fourth to take one in 2014 (Pittsburgh's Tom Savage). The 6-3, 230-pound Petty threw for 4,200 yards and a 32-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2013.
[h=3]16. Tennessee Titans (8-8): Brett Hundley*, QB, UCLA[/h]
Hundley made the smart decision by returning to UCLA for the 2014 season, as he had some improving to do with his throwing ability. But he has all the physical tools to be very good, at 6-3, 222 pounds with good athleticism and a strong arm.
[h=3]17. Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Cameron Erving, OT, Florida State[/h]
Erving has great size for the tackle position at 6-6, 320 pounds, and figures to have plenty of opportunities to impress on a Florida State offense that should once again be very prolific in 2014.
[h=3]18. Chicago Bears (8-8): Hroniss Grasu, C, Oregon[/h]
Grasu is one of the nation's best interior offensive linemen, having been named to the Pac-12 first team for two straight years. He should be a catalyst for the Ducks' running game this season.
[h=3]19. Carolina Panthers (8-8): Andrus Peat*, OT, Stanford[/h]
Peat has excellent measurables at 6-7, 310 pounds, and should be the anchor of a very good Stanford offensive line in 2014.
[h=3]20. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Vic Beasley*, DE/OLB, Clemson[/h]
Beasley was one of the best pass-rushers in college football last season, recording 13 sacks for the Tigers, including nine in the first six games. He's currently listed at 6-3, 225 pounds,
[h=3]21. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): Jalen Mills*, CB, LSU[/h]
Mills brings very good size to the cornerback position, measuring in at 6-foot, 185 pounds. He should have a lot of playmaking opportunities in the LSU secondary this season.
[h=3]22. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina[/h]
Robinson is a massive tackle prospect at 6-8, 341 pounds who could be one of the SEC's best offensive linemen this season. He'll be blocking for a very good running back in Mike Davis.
[h=3]23. New York Giants (9-7): Ramik Wilson, LB, Georgia[/h]
The SEC's leading tackler in 2013, Wilson is one of several talented players that new Bulldogs defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt (who served as the Seminoles' DC last season) is inheriting. Wilson had 18 tackles in the UGA-Auburn game alone.
[h=3]24. San Diego Chargers (9-7): Jaelen Strong*, WR, Arizona State[/h]
Strong is a big target (6-4, 205 pounds) who was very productive for the Sun Devils in 2013 (75 catches for 1,122 yards and 7 TDs). He's one of the Pac-12's top big-play threats.
[h=3]25. San Francisco 49ers (9-7): Devonte Fields*, DE/OLB, TCU[/h]
Fields played in only three games last season, his 2013 campaign cut short by injury, but he showed off his considerable talent as a freshman when he recorded 10 sacks for the Horned Frogs.
[h=3]26. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Tre' Jackson, G, Florida State[/h]
Jackson is a huge guard prospect at 6-4, 339 pounds who earned All-ACC first-team honors last season and has the potential to put together another very good campaign in 2014.
[h=3]27. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Benardrick McKinney*, ILB, Mississippi State[/h]
McKinney possesses very good length for the linebacker position (he measures in at 6-5, 235 pounds), and he had a strong 2013 campaign (including a 1.5-sack game against Texas A&M and a 10-tackle game against Kentucky).
[h=3]28. New England Patriots (10-6): Randy Gregory*, DE, Nebraska[/h]
Gregory recorded 10.5 sacks last season, best in the Big Ten, including a three-sack performance in the Huskers' 17-13 win over Michigan. He has good length at 6-6, 230.
[h=3]29. Green Bay Packers (10-6): Eric Striker*, LB, Oklahoma[/h]
Striker is undersized at 6-foot, 219 pounds, but flashed during the Sooners' stunning Sugar Bowl win over Alabama, recording three sacks in OU's victory. He gave the Crimson Tide's tackles fits with his speed off the edge.
[h=3]30. Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Todd Gurley*, RB, Georgia[/h]
Injuries limited Gurley's production this season after his 1,385-yard freshman campaign, but he still managed to produce 6.0 yards per carry and 16 total TDs. He is a powerful inside runner with breakaway speed and good lateral agility.
[h=3]31. New Orleans Saints (11-5): Shane Ray*, DE/OLB, Missouri[/h]
Ray was a key part of a productive Tigers defensive line last season that also featured Kony Ealy and Michael Sam, and he appears primed for a very strong 2014 campaign. He measures up at 6-3, 245 pounds.
[h=3]32. Denver Broncos (12-4): Michael Bennett*, DT, Ohio State[/h]
The 6-3, 285-pound Bennett recorded seven sacks in 2013, and should be a key part of a formidable Buckeyes defensive line this season.
I'd say that it's never too early to talk about next year's NFL draft ... but it's too early to be talking about next year's NFL draft. Regardless, we understand that with the 2014 draft in the books, fans are interested in knowing now the names that we could be talking about when the 2015 draft process rolls around, so as the headline indicates, we're taking a way-too-early look at who those players might be.
A couple of important notes:
• This mock draft should carry zero weight in the decision process for underclassmen after the season. For one, the NFL draft advisory committee was assembled for that very purpose. For another, we haven't yet studied these players with an eye toward their NFL potential. We'll begin that process later this month by studying last season's tape on approximately 150 prospects prior to the start of the 2014 college football season. And by the time next year's NFL draft rolls around, we will have a database of more than 2,000 prospects and will have done full evaluations (which require a minimum of four tapes studied for each player) on more than 350 of the top prospects.
Since the rookie wage-scale changes in 2011 (based on the new collective bargaining deal), there has been a significant growth in underclassmen departing early for the NFL draft: 56 in 2011, 65 in 2012, 73 in 2013 and 98 in 2014. Underclassmen who are considering ignoring their draft projection based on the argument that it's far more important to get the clock running toward their second NFL contract should consider two facts: (1) 44 percent of underclassmen who declared early from 2011 to 2013 were no longer on NFL rosters by the end of last season; (2) of the 98 underclassmen who declared early this year, 36 went undrafted.
• Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders was kind enough to provide us with a 2015 draft order based off of his early projected win totals for every team (rounded off to create a win-loss record, and projected SOS numbers breaking the ties). That's the order we'll use for the purposes of this projection.
With all of that out of the way, here is our way-too-early mock draft for 2015. And, as always, draft-eligible non-seniors are denoted with an asterisk.
[h=3]1. Oakland Raiders (FBO projected record: 4-12): Leonard Williams*, DL, USC[/h]The 6-foot-5, 290-pound Williams can move extremely well for his size, and that translated to him being very disruptive and productive for the Trojans in 2013. He showed impressive awareness, quickness and a good motor.
[h=3]2. Cleveland Browns (6-10): Amari Cooper*, WR, Alabama[/h]
The Browns didn't take a receiver in the 2014 draft, so we'll give them one early here. Cooper was banged up early on last season but by the end of the year he was back to his dominant freshman-year form. He has good savvy and body control to go with his size and speed.
[h=3]3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): Cedric Ogbuehi*, OL, Texas A&M[/h]
The Aggies have had an offensive lineman taken in the top 10 of the draft in back-to-back seasons, and Ogbuehi has flashed the potential to become the third. He has played both guard and tackle at A&M and figures to be one of the top offensive linemen in the nation in 2014.
[h=3]4. Washington Redskins (6-10): Dante Fowler Jr.*, DE, Florida[/h]
Fowler plays with an edge and a high-revving motor, and has maintained his speed to this point in his career even while adding bulk. He has good explosiveness and closing burst, and violent hands. The Gators have played him all along the defensive line and at outside linebacker.
[h=3]5. New York Jets (6-10): Jameis Winston*, QB, Florida State[/h]
If this scenario were to unfold and the Jets went 6-10 next season, chances are they'd be looking for a QB. There's no denying the Heisman-winning Winston's talent -- he shows good arm strength and accuracy to go with very good pocket presence and decision-making -- but his maturity and behavior off the field will be watched closely.
[h=3]6. Minnesota Vikings (6-10): Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon[/h]
Ekpre-Olomu should be one of the top cornerbacks in college football this season. He is a fluid and flexible athlete with good ball skills and playmaking ability, and he is also a willing run defender.
[h=3]7. St. Louis Rams (6-10): Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa[/h]
The Rams would continue to build their offensive line in this scenario with the selection of Scherff, who brings prototypical size to the left tackle position at 6-5, 320 pounds.
[h=3]8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Marcus Mariota*, QB, Oregon[/h]
Mariota was one of the nation's top quarterbacks last season, and by returning to Oregon he'll have the opportunity to improve upon his mechanics and accuracy and come closer to fulfilling his very high upside. He's a big-time running threat because of his speed and size combo (6-4, 211 pounds).
[h=3]9. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Mario Edwards Jr.*, DE, Florida State[/h]
Edwards was one of the key contributors to the Seminoles' national-title-winning defense last season. The former No. 1 overall recruit, Edwards has good size at 6-3, 277 pounds.
[h=3]10. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo Bills): Landon Collins*, S, Alabama[/h]
As part of the trade that allowed the Bills (projected by Football Outsiders to finish 7-9 next season) to move up from the ninth pick to the fourth pick to draft Sammy Watkins, the Browns now own Buffalo's 2015 first-round pick -- in this case, a top-10 selection. Collins brings great speed and playmaking to the safety position.
[h=3]11. Dallas Cowboys (7-9): Nelson Agholor*, WR, USC[/h]
Agholor is keeping up USC's tradition of talented wide receivers. At 6-foot, 185 pounds, Agholor has good speed and the ability to make defenders miss with the ball in his hands (8 total TDs).
[h=3]12. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Shilique Calhoun*, DE/OLB, Michigan State[/h]
Calhoun recorded 7.5 sacks last season on a very good Michigan State defense, and he could be one of the best defenders in the country in 2014. He has good size at 6-4, 250 pounds.
[h=3]13. Detroit Lions (7-9): P.J. Williams*, CB, Florida State[/h]
Williams had an impressive 2013 campaign in a very talented Seminoles secondary, including coming up with an interception in FSU's BCS title game victory over Auburn. At 6-foot, 190 pounds, he has good size for a corner.
[h=3]14. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State[/h]
Greene's teammate Kelvin Benjamin went in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft, but it was actually Greene who was the Seminoles' most prolific receiver (and according to Winston, its most reliable). He hauled in 76 passes for 1,128 yards (both team highs).
[h=3]15. Houston Texans (8-8): Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor[/h]
The Texans could be looking to draft a quarterback in the first round of next year's draft, after waiting until the fourth to take one in 2014 (Pittsburgh's Tom Savage). The 6-3, 230-pound Petty threw for 4,200 yards and a 32-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2013.
[h=3]16. Tennessee Titans (8-8): Brett Hundley*, QB, UCLA[/h]
Hundley made the smart decision by returning to UCLA for the 2014 season, as he had some improving to do with his throwing ability. But he has all the physical tools to be very good, at 6-3, 222 pounds with good athleticism and a strong arm.
[h=3]17. Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Cameron Erving, OT, Florida State[/h]
Erving has great size for the tackle position at 6-6, 320 pounds, and figures to have plenty of opportunities to impress on a Florida State offense that should once again be very prolific in 2014.
[h=3]18. Chicago Bears (8-8): Hroniss Grasu, C, Oregon[/h]
Grasu is one of the nation's best interior offensive linemen, having been named to the Pac-12 first team for two straight years. He should be a catalyst for the Ducks' running game this season.
[h=3]19. Carolina Panthers (8-8): Andrus Peat*, OT, Stanford[/h]
Peat has excellent measurables at 6-7, 310 pounds, and should be the anchor of a very good Stanford offensive line in 2014.
[h=3]20. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Vic Beasley*, DE/OLB, Clemson[/h]
Beasley was one of the best pass-rushers in college football last season, recording 13 sacks for the Tigers, including nine in the first six games. He's currently listed at 6-3, 225 pounds,
[h=3]21. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): Jalen Mills*, CB, LSU[/h]
Mills brings very good size to the cornerback position, measuring in at 6-foot, 185 pounds. He should have a lot of playmaking opportunities in the LSU secondary this season.
[h=3]22. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina[/h]
Robinson is a massive tackle prospect at 6-8, 341 pounds who could be one of the SEC's best offensive linemen this season. He'll be blocking for a very good running back in Mike Davis.
[h=3]23. New York Giants (9-7): Ramik Wilson, LB, Georgia[/h]
The SEC's leading tackler in 2013, Wilson is one of several talented players that new Bulldogs defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt (who served as the Seminoles' DC last season) is inheriting. Wilson had 18 tackles in the UGA-Auburn game alone.
[h=3]24. San Diego Chargers (9-7): Jaelen Strong*, WR, Arizona State[/h]
Strong is a big target (6-4, 205 pounds) who was very productive for the Sun Devils in 2013 (75 catches for 1,122 yards and 7 TDs). He's one of the Pac-12's top big-play threats.
[h=3]25. San Francisco 49ers (9-7): Devonte Fields*, DE/OLB, TCU[/h]
Fields played in only three games last season, his 2013 campaign cut short by injury, but he showed off his considerable talent as a freshman when he recorded 10 sacks for the Horned Frogs.
[h=3]26. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Tre' Jackson, G, Florida State[/h]
Jackson is a huge guard prospect at 6-4, 339 pounds who earned All-ACC first-team honors last season and has the potential to put together another very good campaign in 2014.
[h=3]27. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Benardrick McKinney*, ILB, Mississippi State[/h]
McKinney possesses very good length for the linebacker position (he measures in at 6-5, 235 pounds), and he had a strong 2013 campaign (including a 1.5-sack game against Texas A&M and a 10-tackle game against Kentucky).
[h=3]28. New England Patriots (10-6): Randy Gregory*, DE, Nebraska[/h]
Gregory recorded 10.5 sacks last season, best in the Big Ten, including a three-sack performance in the Huskers' 17-13 win over Michigan. He has good length at 6-6, 230.
[h=3]29. Green Bay Packers (10-6): Eric Striker*, LB, Oklahoma[/h]
Striker is undersized at 6-foot, 219 pounds, but flashed during the Sooners' stunning Sugar Bowl win over Alabama, recording three sacks in OU's victory. He gave the Crimson Tide's tackles fits with his speed off the edge.
[h=3]30. Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Todd Gurley*, RB, Georgia[/h]
Injuries limited Gurley's production this season after his 1,385-yard freshman campaign, but he still managed to produce 6.0 yards per carry and 16 total TDs. He is a powerful inside runner with breakaway speed and good lateral agility.
[h=3]31. New Orleans Saints (11-5): Shane Ray*, DE/OLB, Missouri[/h]
Ray was a key part of a productive Tigers defensive line last season that also featured Kony Ealy and Michael Sam, and he appears primed for a very strong 2014 campaign. He measures up at 6-3, 245 pounds.
[h=3]32. Denver Broncos (12-4): Michael Bennett*, DT, Ohio State[/h]
The 6-3, 285-pound Bennett recorded seven sacks in 2013, and should be a key part of a formidable Buckeyes defensive line this season.
