[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEVADA WILL HOPE FOR THE BEST WITH CARDS/STEELERS SUPER BOWL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It doesn't exactly light up the night sky in neon.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers won their way into the 43rd Super Bowl with conference championship victories this past Sunday. "Sharps" (professional wagerers) generally did well on the day with big bets on Arizona (+) over Philadelphia (with a lot of moneyline bets on the dog to win outright as well), and the Over 34 in Baltimore/Pittsburgh. The public was happy to see both games go Over. The typical "square" approach of favorites and Overs went 3-1 on the day. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Obviously, if most of the bettors were reasonably happy with the day, the sportsbooks must not have been! Proposition bets helped the books out, as they always do. And, oddsmakers know that whenever the public wins...they go right back to the window and make another bet. The public always loses eventually. Any money they win is like a temporary loan. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sportsbooks operators were more concerned in general with the relatively lackluster matchup two weeks hence. Arizona is a team that few really think of as Super Bowl caliber. Pittsburgh advanced by the skin of its teeth after playing a horrible second half against Baltimore. It would be one thing if this was a popular Cinderella facing a true superpower. That would bring out action on both sides of the equation. If it's "pretender" vs. "winning ugly," mainstream interest is going to be much less than in recent seasons. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last year was a dream scenario, with a Cinderella team led by a name quarterback representing a classic franchise in a huge city...facing a dynasty franchise chasing immortality. Nevada (or the NFL) couldn't have asked for a better matchup to market. Steelers/Cardinals is quite a letdown in context. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Arizona has to be one of the LAST teams that Nevada wanted in the Super Bowl! There's no national following in terms of a fan base. There's no big media following. This isn't a team you love to love...or love to hate. The great thing about the media teams in terms of driving betting action is that so many teams hate them![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sure there are some good stories here. The networks will do what they can to tell them. Kurt Warner's return to the top is certainly storybook. Larry Fitzgerald is finally getting the recognition he's always deserved. You can bet he'll be the focus of several Super Bowl betting propositions. The Cards obviously aren't a marquee franchise in terms of recent history. There's just not much here that's going to light a fire for the general public. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pittsburgh seems less like a pretender because they play great defense and earned a bye. Still, the Steelers really couldn't establish themselves in big games this year. They struggled all season against quality opposition...either winning or losing low scoring slugfests. Sunday's result would have been 16-14 if not for the late pick six. How many 16-14 type games did Pittsburgh play? I've lost count. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The public HATES watching games like that![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You know, casinos are having a hard time right now in both Las Vegas and Reno because of the national economy. They were hoping an exciting Super Bowl matchup would invigorate the state of Nevada. Sports fans are still going to bet the game because sports fans find a way to bet the Super Bowl! The bet sizes will be smaller. The collateral interest just isn't there without a team chasing history...or the Dallas Cowboys...or even a Manning brother![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I can tell you that oddsmakers will try to make the most of the situation. Even before the Super Bowl matchup was finalized with the end of the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game late Sunday, oddsmakers were hard at work making plans for an onslaught of action.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Once that initial surge has subsided, oddsmakers start thinking about props. This has become an animal in its own right. You'll have 15 sheets of prop options by the time the game rolls around. These take 2-3 days to put together. Some are as simple as picking which team will win the coin flip. Others are directly related to key players in the game. Some are just silly. The public bets them all! [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sportsbooks now do HUGE business on the props. And, they generally clear a good profit. Limits are kept reasonable to prevent sharps from badly abusing any off numbers. The vigorish is higher on these in terms of the moneyline payoffs, so the public is taking the worst of it right off the bat. And, the public tends to have no idea how to really handicap these options. So, the squares make BAD picks at BAD odds on one side of the equation, and the sharps are kept in check to a degree by low limits on the other. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Next week, I'll go more in depth regarding what Super Bowl week is like in Nevada. Hopefully I'll have room to talk about many of the props that are available as well. You can earn some extra profits with you handicapping expertise if you pick your spots intelligently. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The layoff before the Super Bowl is great for handicapping, because you have plenty of time to play through the game possibilities in your mind. But, it's also great because you've got several days to build your bankroll with basketball winners. You can win even more in the Super Bowl if you have more to play with on Super Bowl Sunday![/FONT]
With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEVADA WILL HOPE FOR THE BEST WITH CARDS/STEELERS SUPER BOWL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It doesn't exactly light up the night sky in neon.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers won their way into the 43rd Super Bowl with conference championship victories this past Sunday. "Sharps" (professional wagerers) generally did well on the day with big bets on Arizona (+) over Philadelphia (with a lot of moneyline bets on the dog to win outright as well), and the Over 34 in Baltimore/Pittsburgh. The public was happy to see both games go Over. The typical "square" approach of favorites and Overs went 3-1 on the day. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Obviously, if most of the bettors were reasonably happy with the day, the sportsbooks must not have been! Proposition bets helped the books out, as they always do. And, oddsmakers know that whenever the public wins...they go right back to the window and make another bet. The public always loses eventually. Any money they win is like a temporary loan. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sportsbooks operators were more concerned in general with the relatively lackluster matchup two weeks hence. Arizona is a team that few really think of as Super Bowl caliber. Pittsburgh advanced by the skin of its teeth after playing a horrible second half against Baltimore. It would be one thing if this was a popular Cinderella facing a true superpower. That would bring out action on both sides of the equation. If it's "pretender" vs. "winning ugly," mainstream interest is going to be much less than in recent seasons. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last year was a dream scenario, with a Cinderella team led by a name quarterback representing a classic franchise in a huge city...facing a dynasty franchise chasing immortality. Nevada (or the NFL) couldn't have asked for a better matchup to market. Steelers/Cardinals is quite a letdown in context. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Arizona has to be one of the LAST teams that Nevada wanted in the Super Bowl! There's no national following in terms of a fan base. There's no big media following. This isn't a team you love to love...or love to hate. The great thing about the media teams in terms of driving betting action is that so many teams hate them![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sure there are some good stories here. The networks will do what they can to tell them. Kurt Warner's return to the top is certainly storybook. Larry Fitzgerald is finally getting the recognition he's always deserved. You can bet he'll be the focus of several Super Bowl betting propositions. The Cards obviously aren't a marquee franchise in terms of recent history. There's just not much here that's going to light a fire for the general public. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pittsburgh seems less like a pretender because they play great defense and earned a bye. Still, the Steelers really couldn't establish themselves in big games this year. They struggled all season against quality opposition...either winning or losing low scoring slugfests. Sunday's result would have been 16-14 if not for the late pick six. How many 16-14 type games did Pittsburgh play? I've lost count. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The public HATES watching games like that![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You know, casinos are having a hard time right now in both Las Vegas and Reno because of the national economy. They were hoping an exciting Super Bowl matchup would invigorate the state of Nevada. Sports fans are still going to bet the game because sports fans find a way to bet the Super Bowl! The bet sizes will be smaller. The collateral interest just isn't there without a team chasing history...or the Dallas Cowboys...or even a Manning brother![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I can tell you that oddsmakers will try to make the most of the situation. Even before the Super Bowl matchup was finalized with the end of the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game late Sunday, oddsmakers were hard at work making plans for an onslaught of action.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Super Bowl openers always gets bet heavily by the public as soon as the pointspread and total go up on the board after the championship games have ended. "Squares" are still in town because many traveled in Sunday for the league championship games. They watched both games on the big screen TV's during the day. They want to bet the Super Bowl before they go back home. They're caught up in the excitement of the moment, especially if they won their bets in the last game![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Super Bowl may also heavily bet by professional wagerers as soon as the line goes up. It depends They have a number in mind. If "sharps" see an edge they don't think will last, they'll take it right at the opener. What's more common though is that the sharps will take a position on the favorite knowing the public is likely to take the number higher. Then, sharps will come back over the top on the underdog closer to kick off. When done properly, this sets up a middle opportunity while allowing sharps to get down heavily on their preferred side. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The same thing can happen on the Over/Under, where the public typically bets the Over, and the professionals will take early positions to set up middles later. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]On the off chance that the line just seems too high to begin with (which happened last year in the New England/NY Giants game), sharps will hit the dog right away if they figure that's the best line they're going to get. This is rare. Last year we had a public team as the underdog. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Once that initial surge has subsided, oddsmakers start thinking about props. This has become an animal in its own right. You'll have 15 sheets of prop options by the time the game rolls around. These take 2-3 days to put together. Some are as simple as picking which team will win the coin flip. Others are directly related to key players in the game. Some are just silly. The public bets them all! [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sportsbooks now do HUGE business on the props. And, they generally clear a good profit. Limits are kept reasonable to prevent sharps from badly abusing any off numbers. The vigorish is higher on these in terms of the moneyline payoffs, so the public is taking the worst of it right off the bat. And, the public tends to have no idea how to really handicap these options. So, the squares make BAD picks at BAD odds on one side of the equation, and the sharps are kept in check to a degree by low limits on the other. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Next week, I'll go more in depth regarding what Super Bowl week is like in Nevada. Hopefully I'll have room to talk about many of the props that are available as well. You can earn some extra profits with you handicapping expertise if you pick your spots intelligently. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The layoff before the Super Bowl is great for handicapping, because you have plenty of time to play through the game possibilities in your mind. But, it's also great because you've got several days to build your bankroll with basketball winners. You can win even more in the Super Bowl if you have more to play with on Super Bowl Sunday![/FONT]
