Need your opinion on a fair resolution.

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Ill make this simple as possible. Me and buddy play a game where we pick three games a week against spread.
1 pt per win, .5 per tie and one pick is designated best best worth 2x points.
Additionally each person can make a pick worth 3x points at any time, once every half season,(9 weeks in our case)

So over the course of 9 weeks a person can earn up to 39 points. (9weeks x4pts wk=36, one 3pt play =39)
After the first half half of the season is over today I am up 4.5 points.

We each put up $200, so the pot is $400
He wants to quit and we are trying to figure out fair equity.

I estimate myself a 55 to 45 favorite at this point but Im not sure how to calculate exactly
Maybe Im as much as a 60 to 40 favorite,,

What do you all think?
 

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I think you're both cheap.
 
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Each take your 2 hundy back and save your friendship. Sounds like he can't afford to lose or doesn't like something about you during the match.
 

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If any "buddy" needs that $200 back that bad, give it to them.
 

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Donate it to a charity good grief we are talking about $200 a piece
 

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Handicapper
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Just give him the 200 back and never ever bet him on anything ever again
 

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jeez....atleast make him wash your car

These guys in this thread too nice

In all seriousness 240-160ish would be fair but if he is hardup just screw the $40 in equity and forget it. Not worth the hassle
 

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thanks for the responses , douchebag, condescending types and others.(funny cuz I may have similar responses to this question)
But hey its the RX so cant say its not expected.:):)

In reality this was not a "save our friendship" or we are too cheap question.
He has some life issues and doesnt want to fool with football anymore this year.

I said just buy me lunch and we call it even. He wanted to pay a fair amount.

This was really a math question, regardless of the amount at stake.
I was moreso just wondering if any math wiz could tell me what a 4.5pt lead was worth
given our positions.
 

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Handicapper
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thanks for the responses , douchebag, condescending types and others.(funny cuz I may have similar responses to this question)
But hey its the RX so cant say its not expected.:):)

In reality this was not a "save our friendship" or we are too cheap question.
He has some life issues and doesnt want to fool with football anymore this year.

I said just buy me lunch and we call it even. He wanted to pay a fair amount.

This was really a math question, regardless of the amount at stake.
I was moreso just wondering if any math wiz could tell me what a 4.5pt lead was worth
given our positions.

If it's just a math question, in my opinion a forfeit is a loss, and you should keep all the money.
 
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thanks for the responses , douchebag, condescending types and others.(funny cuz I may have similar responses to this question)
But hey its the RX so cant say its not expected.:):)

In reality this was not a "save our friendship" or we are too cheap question.
He has some life issues and doesnt want to fool with football anymore this year.

I said just buy me lunch and we call it even. He wanted to pay a fair amount.

This was really a math question, regardless of the amount at stake.
I was moreso just wondering if any math wiz could tell me what a 4.5pt lead was worth
given our positions.

Given he is your friend seek for a good number. He is quitting. $300/$100 is what I would do. $250/$150 I could live with.
 

EV Whore
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Cut the bet in half. $100 for each half of the season.

You won the first half so you get that 200

Each gets back 100 for the second half of the season, which is now cancelled.

So 300/100
 

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Cut the bet in half. $100 for each half of the season.

You won the first half so you get that 200

Each gets back 100 for the second half of the season, which is now cancelled.

So 300/100

He isn't 75% to win the bet though so that is a bad deal for the other guy.

He is likely around 60% to win the bet
 

EV Whore
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He isn't 75% to win the bet though so that is a bad deal for the other guy.

He is likely around 60% to win the bet

So? The other guy wants to quit so he's gonna have to flex on the terms.

Whatever, like I said I would just cancel the bet.
 

Scottcarter was caught making out with Caitlin Jen
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I would ask him what he thinks is fair (if he doesn't want to split 50/50), then say OK and go have a beer. I mean shit, he is your friend....
 

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