Need thoughts on potential big dog play for Sunday

Green17 · Aug 30, 2009

From the what have you done for me lately category:

With the blow up of Cliff Lee yesterday, Bronson Arroyo is pitching perhaps the best of anyone in the NL right now. I mean anyone. He's going against the Dodger's Clayton Kershaw today. Kershaw has done a fine job for LA this season but his 'what have you done for me lately' has been much, much less than that of Arroyo. Don't get me wrong here. Long term, I'd rather have Kershaw on my team than Arroyo most any day of the week......except maybe not today.

I realize that the Dodgers are leading their division and the Reds are near the bottom of theirs. But I'm not trying to put them in the World Series, just trying to get them to win this game.

CINN had won five in a row before losing to LA last night. The Dodgers have been much less of a force since the AllStarBreak than they were prior. However they still carry the big stick with the public and thus the linesmaker. That gives us this big fat line.

With LA currently favored @ 1.70, the Reds (with Arroyo a must go) look as appealing to me as any big dog I've seen this season. In fact, I think the line is way off based on most recent form. If you prefer the RL, you can get CIN +1.5 for a mere -105.

I'm strongly considering a top play on the Reds today. Seeking help from the knowledgeable Forum baseball heads.

Your thoughts are appreciated. Thanks.

mrpotter1 · Aug 30, 2009

Take the CWS. I personally hate them but I have a good feeling about them today.

Green17 · Aug 30, 2009

Thanks for your input on the CWS. They may win today as an even bigger dog than the Reds, but I don't like to predict an end to losing streaks. I know Ozzie and the Chicago media ripped them last night but it doesn't change the fact that they are 1-6 L7.......and going against one of the best teams in MLB today.

Good Luck to you if you play them. Hopefully we can both pull one out.

jordan17 · Aug 30, 2009

u right, clayton hasnt been so hot...but the tide will turn...also lad has cindys #...the under might be the play...bol fading my dodgers...

BadCo · Aug 30, 2009

Bronson Arroyo is always a hit-or-miss option, and we expect "miss" against the Dodgers, who he is 1-4 lifetime against, including a 7.88 ERA his past three times facing Los Angeles

Green17 · Aug 30, 2009

Thanks Bad. I appreciate the input as I saw that line in your thread - which by the way I always appreciate reading - HOWEVER, Arroyo has never pitched better in his career (as a Red) and the team is on a recent hot streak. Giving them a shot win or lose.

Gotta lay it and play it at these odds.

Thanks.

MemphisMonroe · Aug 30, 2009

Green17 said:
Thanks Bad. I appreciate the input as I saw that line in your thread - which by the way I always appreciate reading - HOWEVER, Arroyo has never pitched better in his career (as a Red) and the team is on a recent hot streak. Giving them a shot win or lose.

Gotta lay it and play it at these odds.

Thanks.

What hot streak? They just lost.

Green17 · Aug 30, 2009

K1ller Bet$ said:
What hot streak? They just lost.

The Reds won in Pittsburgh last Sunday. Then took three (swept) Milwaukee on the road. Went home on Friday night and beat LA's Billingsley 4-2 before losing last night.

That makes 5-1 their last six, or what I referred to as a "recent hot streak", at least from my perspective.

Thanks.

BadCo · Aug 30, 2009

Manny will sit today.......

Torre will give him a rest and start Juan Pierre who hits Arroyo well .367

zeketaylor · Aug 30, 2009

i think the under in cincy is the best of all plays related to that game

Green17 · Aug 30, 2009

BadCo, nobody is hitting Arroyo well right now. That's the premise of my whole proposition. If he reverts back to his earlier summer form, so be it.

It may all go up in flames this afternoon, but I put my money where my pen is.

Sure you can bet a Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Carpenter, etc. But you pay a hefty price for those guys at home. Well, Arroyo has pitched better than any of them - RECENTLY - and getting a big dog price at home. Doesn't happen very often and thought I'd take a shot. Hell, I've lost $$ on a lot worse plays than this one should they lose.

And if I do lose, it wouldn't be for the first time and if I win it won't be the last..............Lord willing he keeps me around to make another play tomorrow. Or maybe tonight!

Thanks for the input. I get the feeling you're trying to save me money and I just won't listen. I do appreciate your efforts though.

mrpotter1 · Aug 30, 2009

Kershaw has been pretty good his last six starts and pretty much all season. Arroyo ran into some weak hitting teams that also were pretty cold at the time. His last start was against Milw and nobody has been worse than them lately. Fact is, Kershaw is better than Arroyo and he has a much better lineup supporting him. Dodgers easy!!!

Michelangelo · Aug 30, 2009

This is a tough one Greenie.

The Dodgers, as you said, have not been playing in the second half as they played in the first half. They are only 9-9 on the road since the All Star break. But on closer inspection they are 3-2 in Series road wins. Those Series road wins came vs Colorado, San Fran, and Atlanta, all .500+ teams. Their Series road losses came at the hands of Azo, 15-7 L22 H, and St L, 17-5 H since the break. So you can see that they are actually playing much better on the road than that isolated 9-9 road record would indicate.

Additionally, you are correct in stating that Bronson Arroyo has pitched three consecutive gems. But to me that says that he's due for a clunker.

And the fact that the Dodgers have lost Clayton Kershaw's last 7 starts, despite having two 7 and 8 inning shutout gems in there tells me that he is due to get a win.

So I would lean Boys in Blue here, but the -173 road price saps the value here.

GL if you jump on the Red hots, err, hot Reds.

uva3021 · Aug 30, 2009

the dodgers have been at their best throughout the year when Pierre starts

Green17 · Aug 30, 2009

Michelangelo said:
This is a tough one Greenie.

The Dodgers, as you said, have not been playing in the second half as they played in the first half. They are only 9-9 on the road since the All Star break. But on closer inspection they are 3-2 in Series road wins. Those Series road wins came vs Colorado, San Fran, and Atlanta, all .500+ teams. Their Series road losses came at the hands of Azo, 15-7 L22 H, and St L, 17-5 H since the break. So you can see that they are actually playing much better on the road than that isolated 9-9 road record would indicate.

Additionally, you are correct in stating that Bronson Arroyo has pitched three consecutive gems. But to me that says that he's due for a clunker.

And the fact that the Dodgers have lost Clayton Kershaw's last 7 starts, despite having two 7 and 8 inning shutout gems in there tells me that he is due to get a win.

So I would lean Boys in Blue here, but the -173 road price saps the value here.

GL if you jump on the Red hots, err, hot Reds.

Thank you for the excellent breakdown. I agree with you on all points except that Arroyo is 'due' for a bad one and Kershaw 'due' for a win. If that was indeed the case, Kershaw, whom I like very much, has been 'due' for weeks, not just today. So what makes today any different?

I have learned 'the hard way' not to wager on when I might predict streaks to end. It's cost me too much over the years.

In either case, you said "this is a tough one" and I agree. I just thought with the +158 I got it was too much to pass up along with the +1.5 +100. And very difficult to lay -175 on LA today.

Win or Lose, I appreciate your excellent points.

zeketaylor · Aug 30, 2009

2-0...reds winning

looking good!

hope u win

hate dodgers

zeketaylor · Aug 30, 2009

darnell mcdonalds 2 run shot.....seriously, can u honestly say u capped for his behemoth swing? lol...funny how we get there sometimes...doesnt matter who hits em!

Green17 · Aug 30, 2009

No I certainly didn't cap that long ball. I didn't care who was in the lineup either to a degree. Just the Arroyo factor and the recent hot streak of the Reds.

Long way to go. But so far Arroyo has picked up where he left off.