You could try Don Best site. Usually excellent info.
http://www.donbest.com/matchups/ncaab-matchups.htm
Lots of stuff on the free site even
http://www.donbest.com/matchups/ncaab-matchups.htm
Lots of stuff on the free site even
If you notice in the matchup ratings you can usually see where the vegas line comes from. The real value here I believe is in rrecent form of the teams playing as well as their head to head records and conference play. I wish I was smart enough to more wisely interpret the info but I do feel it has a lot of informational value regardless. Hope it helps as I value the plays you have provided to date.
if you go onto the ustoday site and look at sagarin ratings, that will give you your line value.
you will see alot of the -1 pk games how they get their value. usually a road team favored by sag by 6 or 7 will be a -1 or even a pk, and a lot of times the fav will be the home team.
they say basketball is a 3 point home advantage-i think that is a vegas conspiracy, more like add 4-6 to home, and subtract 4-6 to the road.
maybe that will help. and after you do all that, you still will be 50/50. good luck.
good luck
[This message was edited by gracie lou on February 16, 2004 at 10:43 AM.]
you will see alot of the -1 pk games how they get their value. usually a road team favored by sag by 6 or 7 will be a -1 or even a pk, and a lot of times the fav will be the home team.
they say basketball is a 3 point home advantage-i think that is a vegas conspiracy, more like add 4-6 to home, and subtract 4-6 to the road.
maybe that will help. and after you do all that, you still will be 50/50. good luck.
good luck
[This message was edited by gracie lou on February 16, 2004 at 10:43 AM.]
that's why just adding 3 points to home teams doesn't work.
all vegas line makers are guys like us who sit around a table and discuss every game, come up with a number using public perception and ratings.
that is why when the general public jumps all over a game, it usually loses. vegas knows that, and they use it against us.
they want money on both side-take the juice and run. what would happen if duke ever got 3 points at home. first it won't for a long time, and everyone would jump on duke, which is against the house.
wish you luck
all vegas line makers are guys like us who sit around a table and discuss every game, come up with a number using public perception and ratings.
that is why when the general public jumps all over a game, it usually loses. vegas knows that, and they use it against us.
they want money on both side-take the juice and run. what would happen if duke ever got 3 points at home. first it won't for a long time, and everyone would jump on duke, which is against the house.
wish you luck
I have seen home court advantages rated as low as 2 points and as high as 6 points. Depends on the size of the school program, the facility, and the level of intensity of the crowd. In college basketball, the home court generally is a very significant element in the outcome of the game ATS. Witness yesterdays results as 11-0-1. This is particularly the case in the stretch drive as teams make their case to be in the NCAA tournament or just make their conference tournament. Food for thought.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by exilarch:
Try Sonny Moore's Computer Power ratings. Don't know the exact URL, but a google search will find them.This site also has a ton of links to other power rating systems.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
would you say Sonny's #'s are sharp? Thanks
Try Sonny Moore's Computer Power ratings. Don't know the exact URL, but a google search will find them.This site also has a ton of links to other power rating systems.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
would you say Sonny's #'s are sharp? Thanks
