avoid Dallas, Pats and Pitt. You're not getting very good odds with them.
Pats had a ridiculously easy schedule this year facing only 3 playoff teams, losing to 1 of them and getting the backup QB (Landry Jones) in another. Beating the Texans at home wasnt exactly a test either. They faced one solid team this year and got drilled at home by Seattle. They will cakewalk their way to the AFC championship before they get tested again. Not much value here with the short number
Dallas looks good and their rookies now have a full year under their belt. Dak was able to learn a lot from Romo over the year. Very good offense. Decent defense. Great kicker/punter. HFA thru playoffs helps as well but you're still looking at a team that hasnt seen playoff success in years and their road will to the SB will be tough. Again, there just isnt a lot of value in the number here.
Det. Mia. Hou. ...wont sniff the SB. they got here winning with good, but not great, play and easy schedules.
Oak. wont sniff the SB with Connor Cook and that weak defense
Sea. SHould win first game but winning next 2 will be tough on the road. Their defense is not as strong without Earl Thomas and they lack a running game.
Experience will help though but they just arent quite the same team that beat the Pats earlier this season.
Pitt....great offense, mediocre defense. Decent coaching. They have the pieces to beat NE but winning at KC wont be easy
KC...feels like they luckboxed their way to the #2 seed with the other teams here either being bad or suffering QB injuries. Great special teams. Great defense. Mediocre offense. I dont think they can get past NE though which makes them less valuable
NYG....road warriors in the playoffs. Awful run game. Decent pass game. Great defense. I think they can get past the GB juggernaut.
Atlanta....first round bye. Great special teams. The best offense out there. Terrible defense.
for me, the value lies in Pitt, Atl, GB and NYG. Of those 4, Atl has the easiest road getting a first round bye and second round home game likely against a lesser Seattle opponent. The AFC is considerably weaker though with 3 of the 6 teams having 0 chance to make the super bowl which makes Pitt attractive.