Need help on picking soccer games(soccer newbie)

[Recepted]

Hi everyone. I am in an office pool at work where we are given a list of games per week and we have to pick the winner(two options) of each game listed. There are soccer games on these lists as well and we are given the option of picking one of the teams, or the option of picking the other team with a draw. I look at the moneylines to help make my picks but with the soccer games it is difficult because of the added tie game factor. The team to choose alone without the tie game is usually the ML favorite.

For example one game I could be given the option's of picking a team which is a -130 favorite on the money line or picking a +220 underdog along with a +200 possibility of a draw. I have tried to figure out how to make out who is truly the money line favorite in these situations, Im sure theres some way of figuring it but I havent yet. Right now I usually just pick whoever is the favorite on soccer games.

Thanks for the help everyone.

 

[joeyfitzclick]

What is your question ?

 

[Recepted]

What is your question ?

Hard to explain I guess. If you are having to pick between 2 options in the outcome of a soccer match which do you choose.

Option 1: The first team which is a -130 betting favorite
or
Option 2: The second team which is a +250 underdog but also has the added chance of a draw to the option, and where the betting odds of a draw are +220.

Which of the two is the betting favorite in this case or is there no way to tell? I realize the first team is the favorite to win but the added outcome of a draw with the underdog make it a closer. These are the types of soccer picks I am given in an office pool and I always wonder if the underdog pick with the draw is actually more of favorite but havent figured out how to tell. I usually just go with the single team that is the favorite and it splits correct about 50% of the time.

If that doesnt make it clear than thanks for trying anyways, thanks.

 

[Croatia1]

if the teams are quite evenly matched take the draw game
if its a BIG favourite vs dog then pick the fave as they usually win

 

[rolltide]

Hard to explain I guess. If you are having to pick between 2 options in the outcome of a soccer match which do you choose.

Option 1: The first team which is a -130 betting favorite
or
Option 2: The second team which is a +250 underdog but also has the added chance of a draw to the option, and where the betting odds of a draw are +220.

Which of the two is the betting favorite in this case or is there no way to tell? I realize the first team is the favorite to win but the added outcome of a draw with the underdog make it a closer. These are the types of soccer picks I am given in an office pool and I always wonder if the underdog pick with the draw is actually more of favorite but havent figured out how to tell. I usually just go with the single team that is the favorite and it splits correct about 50% of the time.

If that doesnt make it clear than thanks for trying anyways, thanks.

i think i know what u r asking but it's really tough to answer your question. i think u r asking if the home/away were reversed what would the odds be...or, on a neutral field who would be favored. really impossible to answer b/c in soccer many times home/away form is vastly different. It is not uncommon to see a team with 1 home loss have only 1 away win.

if you are asking for the % of each result just do the division
-130 = 56.5%
to make -130 "valuable" you must really think the home team would win the match 6 out of 10 times. If you feel it's more like 5/10 or even 4/10 then try draw or away win

 

[Recepted]

if the teams are quite evenly matched take the draw game
if its a BIG favourite vs dog then pick the fave as they usually win

Thanks, youve got what I am talking about. Not being a big soccer follower it is tough for me picking these games and than the added element even makes it hard for me to pick with the money lines. Im not sure what would be considered a big enough favorite to negate the draw with the underdog pick. For instance one game on the sheet this week has the single team pick being a -120 favorite, and the other pick being a +295 underdog with the +245 odds of a draw.

I know betting and ML's, spreads etc so everyday I try to come up with some kind of formula that tells the true favorite in the picks and just get frustrated.

Thanks for helping out everyone.