Need Help on how to cover a parlay 8 team win with only 1 game remainging (Gb/CHI)

jateeluv · Sep 28, 2003

I have a huge parlay (8 teamer) at Pinny going with only GB left at -190.

Since this win would be 15x of my starting bankroll for the day I want to guarantee it.

I want to play Chicago on some plays...but I want to make it so I could possibly win both sides but at least guarantee I'll get the 15x of my starting bankroll.

I was thinking get the best Chicago play plus the points.

another option would be just let it ride..as I am currently at 8x my bankroll from what I started today.

What can anyone suggest...

FairWarning · Sep 28, 2003

I would take the Bears with the points to cover some of the play. I have GB ML in the final leg of a 6-teamer and I am waiting until tomorrow to put some on the Bears. Being a Bears fan, I cannot see the Bears winning. They have the worst Monday night record, and Favre owns the Bears (18-4 lifetime).

Good luck.

Fishhead · Sep 28, 2003

The correct play is NOT to hedge in the perfect world. Depends alot on your financial position. Every case is different. If your going to hedge, bet the BEARS at the best number. You mentioned you stand to win 15x your original bet so perhaps put a wager on the BEARS to maybe win 3x your bet if they should win. That way you will be guaranteed to win essentially 12x or 2x your original bet minus a little vig. But you could also win both bets and essentially win around 18x your original stake. That seems like a nice option to me. Good luck!

TheGeneral+ · Sep 28, 2003

Wait till gametime and play a 1/3 on Chicago +

Congrats

Guest · Sep 28, 2003

what until halftime,if green bay is way ahead,let it go,if not,depending of course on the score,you might be able to play the bears to protect yourself

gamblingshark · Sep 28, 2003

I'd do it the same way michael777 says but have enough money in bluegrass,beteuro,rebel or anywhere else that will let you bet the moneyline on the 2nd half in case the bears are way ahead. That way you have 3 options at halftime depending on the score 1) ML bears 2) bears with points 3) No bet on bears

corey · Sep 28, 2003

I'm not sure that's the best idea.

randyrohm · Sep 28, 2003

Play Chi +4' for enough to make money either way and hope for middle.
Looks like you played the last leg of this parlay on the moneyline to set up the hedge/point spread middle if the first legs came in. GL2U

gamblingshark · Sep 28, 2003

ooooppssss left out option #4. If the bears are up big at halftime Id gamble on the packers ML to at least make something out of this whole thing.

MadCapper · Sep 28, 2003

Do NOT get greedy! Put a fair amount on the Bears Plus the points!

-MC

jateeluv · Sep 28, 2003

For now I'm letting it ride...

I've had this situation (8 play parlay) 5 other times so far since I started wagering 2 years all were on pro football of course

I've always hedged with the money line before as before it was with bigger dogs...Chi is only a +4 underdog but its at home. So this is lightest underdog I've had to deal with under these circumstances.

benstern · Sep 28, 2003

nice!!!

sickgambler · Sep 28, 2003

jat,

this is so silly what you are doing here kid..It just don't make any sense at all.. If you are asking us whether you should hedge this 8 teamer, then why bother betting an 8 teamer for? If you knew that you would need your last game on the card to be a Monday nighter, then why didn't you just bet a 7 teamer in the 1st place.? You still knew I am sure beforehand that if you do have a chance at this parlay, that you would have to be 7/7 going into Monday.. Now had you only bet a 7 teamer, you would have made more, as you would save the vig on the hedge, and your return would have been greater..

So next time, if you will be thinking of hedging your last end of your parlay, just put it as one less team in there, and your problems will be solved.

I've always wondered why people always hedge their parlays when they could have easily solved that problem by betting one less team on it..

DarrylParsons · Sep 29, 2003

Take Chicago on the ML for one third of the parlay payout. And place your bet in the last 15 minutes before game time. GB is a heavy public team and for these a good strategy is to just close your eyes, don't ask questions and bet the other way.

You've done well so the right thing is to not be greedy. I will be betting on Chicago for sure, but I'm not sure if it will be ML or points.

jateeluv · Sep 29, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sick gambler:
jat,

this is so silly what you are doing here kid..It just don't make any sense at all.. If you are asking us whether you should hedge this 8 teamer, then why bother betting an 8 teamer for? If you knew that you would need your last game on the card to be a Monday nighter, then why didn't you just bet a 7 teamer in the 1st place.? You still knew I am sure beforehand that if you do have a chance at this parlay, that you would have to be 7/7 going into Monday.. Now had you only bet a 7 teamer, you would have made more, as you would save the vig on the hedge, and your return would have been greater..

So next time, if you will be thinking of hedging your last end of your parlay, just put it as one less team in there, and your problems will be solved.

I've always wondered why people always hedge their parlays when they could have easily solved that problem by betting one less team on it..

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You make a good point. But I do this in order to bet heavy on the dog and at least guarantee some profit if I want it that way. That way I can win huge or if i play the spread I could win both the tickets and win semi-huge.

See sometimes when I have done this I would do so figuring that I really like the Dog play on the last leg, but i would bet the heavy favorite. So I would get to the last game and just bet the dog up to or near what I would win on the parlay. For example if the parlay win is for 10k then I would bet the money line dog for 5 to 10k. You know to win huge. This time though I wasn't thinking clearly as the Bears are playing at home which makes them only a +4 dog. I was thinking they would be a higher dog like 6/7

So now I am waivering. I might just hedge the money line up to the 15x of bankroll..thats what I am leaning towards.

jateeluv · Sep 29, 2003

I forgot to mention that I am currently at 7x of my starting bankroll for the weekend..so i basically have this to play around with to get more money..or let it ride for a huge payday.

I've only missed the Carolina game so far!!!

PO69 · Sep 29, 2003

Well first of all, the first rule of thumb is TOO NEVER HEDGE A BET! Having said that, that would invlove pointspreads, but you ahve a moneyline where you took the favorite! In this case and seeing that you get more than a field goal.

Put about $1000 on the Bears +4, hopefully +4.5, but i doubt that it will move more since 4 is a key number. You may consider buying 1/2 point to get to 4.5. That is what I would do is to buy the 1/2 point to get to off of 4.

I have hit about 10 6 team parlays in my life and 1 nine team parlay so I do understand about that last game theory. But I try NEVER to hedge because I usually only TAKE the spointspreads and not the moneyline.

But with the moneyline in play here, take the Bears at +4 and buy the 1/2 point.

bulldog77 · Sep 29, 2003

Put all you have on Packers. Hedgers should give up and lock up 2% on money market accounts. Your here to gamble!

TheFunkMonkey · Sep 29, 2003

Damn right Bulldog!

If you didn't think the Packers were gonna win, why'd you place the parlay in the first place? Why didn't you drop the Packers and just do a 7-game parlay?

You've come this far, let it ride. Especially since the Packers are gonna win!