NE, Brady, Belichick have been a covering machine

[X-Files]

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1147011

 

[X-Files]

Week 8, Sunday, Oct.27:

Pats 27, Browns 14

NE improves to 6-2 ATS & 8-0 SU on the season.

I saw the line as high as NE -13 or 13.5 & here it says it closed at -9.5:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/?date=20191027

Next up for the Patriots: NFL week 9, NE at Baltimore on SNF, November 3, 2019. ATM the line is NE -3.5.

Is it time to fade, keep following, or just watch?

The Patriots lost 37-20 at Baltimore & fall to 6-3 ATS & 8-1 SU on the year.

Now they have a bye week before going to play in Philly, then the Cowboys, Texans & Chiefs. A tough stretch of schedule coming up!

 

[X-Files]

NE is -3.5 at Philly this coming Sunday. Will they cover? Or will it be the Eagles +3.5?

 

[X-Files]

One opinion on the game is:

4:25 PM EST. The Eagles also come off their bye trying to figure out if they can morph Carson Wentz into a running quarterback like Lamar Jackson. The schedule is not that bad the rest of the way and at least the next two games that go against the Patriots and Seahawks are at home. After that, it's just at the Dolphins, Giants, and the Redskins before the Week 16 matchup against the Cowboys that may end up deciding the NFC East and promoting one of those two teams to the Wild Card round.

Superman bleeds? The Patriots come off their bye having lost to the Ravens by 17 points, 37-20. No other team had scored more than 14 points on the Patriots. They still have the best record in the AFC and there's little concern that they'll miss the AFC Championship game (that they will host). But their schedule is a bit tougher in the second half of the season, including this road trip to Philadelphia and Week 13 in Houston. The narrative this week is that after such a sloppy performance, not to mention an extra week to prep, the two GOATS will be seething to get back on the field. Maybe so but Doug Pederson and the Eagles had a bye week of their own to prepare for New England. There were clear weaknesses exploited by the Ravens in Week 9, and there is no reason Pederson can't devise a game plan that attacks them, too.

We’ve said it before and we’ll reiterate that New England is not one of the better teams in the NFL. They are mediocre at best. What they are good at however, it waiting for the opposition to make a mistake and capitalizing. The Pats don’t outplay anyone. They also have less talent than most but they BB demands that every player be detailed oriented and don’t make mistakes that cost games. BB’s philosophy is “don’t turn the ball over, don’t take foolish penalties and don’t do anything stupid and we’ll win a lot more games than we lose.'' He's right and that’s how the Pats have beaten eight dregs this year. Don’t be fooled into thinking the GOATS can’t lose two in a row because they can and probably will. They’re also the second best team on the field here.

 

[Hamilbet]

Team	ATS Record	Cover %	MOV	ATS +/-
Arizona	7-3-0	70.0%	-5.9	-0.2
Green Bay	7-3-0	70.0%	4.5	+1.6
Oakland	6-3-0	66.7%	-3.6	+0.8
New England	6-3-0	66.7%	19.1	+7.4
New Orleans	6-3-0	66.7%	2.4	+0.2
LA Rams	6-3-0	66.7%	3.9	-0.2
Buffalo	5-3-1	62.5%	2.7	+0.6
Pittsburgh	6-4-0	60.0%	-0.2	+0.3
Minnesota	6-4-0	60.0%	8.0	+4.0

<tbody>
</tbody>

• ATS Record: The number of ATS covers, no-covers, and pushes
• Cover %: The percentage of time the team covered, net of pushes
• MOV: The average margin of victory (negative in losses)
• ATS +/-: The average amount of points that the team covers the spread by

 

[Mr_Mark]

Cool stuff, thanks for sharing Hamilbet

 

[X-Files]

The Patriots lost 37-20 at Baltimore & fall to 6-3 ATS & 8-1 SU on the year.

Now they have a bye week before going to play in Philly, then the Cowboys, Texans & Chiefs. A tough stretch of schedule coming up!

The Pats barely squeaked out a win at banged up Philly & improved to 7-3 ATS & 9-1 SU on the year:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...play-decides-the-super-bowl-lii-rematch/live/

"Up next"

"The Patriots return to Foxborough for a showdown with the Dallas Cowboys (6-4), their second consecutive game against a NFC East team. New England is 3-0 against the NFC East this season."

Last week a book's early line on the game had Dallas at +7, though it is presently +6.5 -108 at Pinnacle. Will the Pats put together 2 straight ATS covers?

 

[X-Files]

It's interesting that the line has so quickly dropped, as it is now 5.5's & 6's across the board here:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/

 

[Hamilbet]

The Philly line too. From -3 to pickem at 5D.