ND2000's WEEK ATS

[nd2000]

***Chalk Play of the Week**

LSU -12.5 over Mississippi State

As i mentioned in another thread, this is the least amount of points LSU has given the Bulldogs in at least the past five years. LSU has dominated this series for the most part. Most of the games have been utter blowouts. I am pretty sure that Mississippi State is bad team this year. They were annihilated at Auburn, a team that i have rated below LSU, and then last week, they came up as 9-point dogs to Vanderbilt. When you are that big of a dog in the SEC to Vanderbilt, you stink. They amazingly won that game in ugly as hell fashion, but keep in mind that Vanderbilt, on a yearly basis, has the worst personnel in the SEC. They are a pesky team that can pull upsets from time to time, but they are awful as SEC chalk. I don't put a whole lot of stock in Mississippi State winning at Vandy. This may look like the square play, and apparently there are sharps betting down Mississippi State for some reason, but i'll fade the sharps here and not overthink this one too much. LSU rolls.

 

[jimmymo]

I like this one too....LSU has a pretty good record in Starkville, which is not the most intimidating place to play in the SEC (lol).

GL this weekend.

 

[nd2000]

***Underdog Play of the Week***

Purdue +8 over Notre Dame

As far as i can tell, Notre Dame has not been favored over Purdue in West Lafayette this decade. Is this Notre Dame's best team of the decade? I don't think so. The offense is really good (but will be weaker now w/out Floyd), but the defense is a god damn disaster. This is easily the weakest defense that Weis has fielded in his tenure at Notre Dame. Purdue has the talent to keep this one close and maybe pull the upset. They should have won at Oregon in week two, they destroyed Toledo in week one, and they laid an egg last week. It happens. Purdue is a young team that will have their ups and downs like all young teams seem to do. They'll be primed to play their best game of the year this week though.

 

[nd2000]

I have seen a lot of debate over the Ole Miss/South Carolina game in this forum, so i'd like to address this topic. Here is what we know. Last year, South Carolina went to Oxford and won 31-24 as a two point underdog. That would make me lean to South Carolina. However, Ole Miss was -2 in turnovers in that ball game, which probably cost them the game. After that game, Ole Miss pretty much went on a tear and in my final power ratings last year, Ole Miss finished 7 points higher than South Carolina. So, if we use the final ratings from last year, we get a line around South Carolina +3 for this game. I think this line is even a slight bit low, because Ole Miss returns more from last season than South Carolina did.

Either way, this game screams pass to me. Don't try to force a play here.

 

[nd2000]

Other games i'll be on, for varying amounts:

Southern Miss +14
Texas Tech +1.5
Virginia Tech +2.5
Illinois +14
Boston College +2
Troy +2
Wyoming +5.5 - they are typically good for one cover/year
Miami, OH +7.5
Vanderbilt -7
Indiana +21

 

[jblonghorn]

ND, what's your record this season to date? I love Purdue. LSU not so sure about. With the way this college fb season has gone, I don't feel comfortable laying that much chalk on an SEC conference visitor. BOL on your plays.

 

[nd2000]

I was listening to a radio show out here yesterday with Las Vegas Sports Consultant Director Kenny White ("top oddsmaker in the land"). He thinks Illinois is a very live dog. No one else does but him and me. I like those odds<<

 

[nd2000]

ND, what's your record this season to date? I love Purdue. LSU not so sure about. With the way this college fb season has gone, I don't feel comfortable laying that much chalk on an SEC conference visitor. BOL on your plays.

Ass poor. I'm batting about 50% overall in college football, but my top plays are only 2-4 on the season. The way i see it, i'm due for a white hot streak.<<

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on Purdue...why Troy though?...

 

[nd2000]

with you on Purdue...why Troy though?...

Troy was favored by 12 over Arkansas State last year and hammered them. Still feel that Troy is the class of the Sun Belt. They got back on track last week by dominating UAB.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

I respect that ND2000, Arky State is a team full of talented seniors and they've had a week of for this one...tread lightly bud...

 

[UoweDucks]

***Underdog Play of the Week***

Purdue +8 over Notre Dame

As far as i can tell, Notre Dame has not been favored over Purdue in West Lafayette this decade. Is this Notre Dame's best team of the decade? I don't think so. The offense is really good (but will be weaker now w/out Floyd), but the defense is a god damn disaster. This is easily the weakest defense that Weis has fielded in his tenure at Notre Dame. Purdue has the talent to keep this one close and maybe pull the upset. They should have won at Oregon in week two, they destroyed Toledo in week one, and they laid an egg last week. It happens. Purdue is a young team that will have their ups and downs like all young teams seem to do. They'll be primed to play their best game of the year this week though.

I've been thinking a lot about this game having seen Purdue up close and personal. This team is just as you say, young and talented. The qb was lights out accurate. Very live dog here I think.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on Purdue...

 

[nd2000]

This is morning i added:

Arkansas +17.5 over Bama - Just last week, Arkansas was favored at home over Georgia. There is no way on God's green earth that UGA would have been getting 17.5 points at Bama. +10 max. Arkansas was a nine point dog to Bama last year, but the Razorbacks are a MUCH better team this season.

Washington +9 over Stanford - Everyone is banking on a UW letdown and the line is sky high now. A Washington letdown is the only way Stanford should be laying this number because the teams are pretty even talent wise. Washington was favored over Stanford by 3 last year before everyone got hurt. Washington is much improved from the team that only lost to Stanford by 3 last year.

 

[GoSooners]

ND...BOL today.:toast:

 

[fadethepublic1]

This is morning i added:

Washington +9 over Stanford - Everyone is banking on a UW letdown and the line is sky high now. A Washington letdown is the only way Stanford should be laying this number because the teams are pretty even talent wise. Washington was favored over Stanford by 3 last year before everyone got hurt. Washington is much improved from the team that only lost to Stanford by 3 last year.

Hate to say it but I'm against you on this game for two reasons. But I have Stanford at -6.5, so w/that said....

I like to play unranked favs giving ranked team points. Another reason is tha public is all over washington. Vegas loves this kind of spot to make a lil money back. GL to you though bro. I'm sure the 9 points is a lot for you to cover but I'm hoping to win by a TD so we both win.

 

[fadethepublic1]

Good try on LSU bro. I hope you make it up on Purdue. For my sake as well. Aloha from Hawaii.

 

[nd2000]

9-5 finish for the day. The ship is starting to turn around. See you guys next week.

 

[nd2000]

Hate to say it but I'm against you on this game for two reasons. But I have Stanford at -6.5, so w/that said....

I like to play unranked favs giving ranked team points. Another reason is tha public is all over washington. Vegas loves this kind of spot to make a lil money back. GL to you though bro. I'm sure the 9 points is a lot for you to cover but I'm hoping to win by a TD so we both win.

Good call on Stanford.

 

[fadethepublic1]

9-5 finish for the day. The ship is starting to turn around. See you guys next week.

Congrats on your winnings bro! Maybe we should put our heads together more often. I like to feed off of guys like VOR, Gyno, Pags, etc. It's good to see when we're all in agreement. Aloha from Hawaii.