ND2000's Week 2 ATS Plays

nd2000 · Sep 8, 2009

CHALK PLAY OF THE WEEK YTD: 1-0
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK YTD: 0-1

The chalk play of the week stayed in cruise control last week with an easy winner on Nebraska over Florida Atlantic. The underdog play of the week was not so lucky with a narrow loss on Ohio. I should have stuck to my guns and followed my initial instinct to take Miami, FL as the Underdog POW. Oh well, on to this week...

***Chalk Play of the Week***

Georgia -7 over South Carolina

A lot of people will be down on Georgia after last week with their disappointing opening loss at Okie State. Not me. What impressed me was that Georgia's defense held one of the most explosive offenses in all of college football to only 307 yards of total offense on the road. That is extremely impressive. Georgia's defense is big time in my opinion. They will literally eat a weak South Carolina offense alive at home this week. Georgia's offense is a bit of a concern, but they will have a 100% Joe Cox, and still have good talent at the OL and WR positions. Georgia's back is against the wall now, and i think they'll take out their frustrations on a mediocre at best South Carolina team.

Steiner69eR · Sep 8, 2009

On it..lets do it again, ND!

nd2000 · Sep 9, 2009

***Underdog Play of the Week***

UTEP +12 over Kansas

I like big underdogs with good QB play that can score. UTEP definitely fits that bill here. Last week was a perfect example with Jake Locker and Washington. UTEP definitely underachieved their talent level last week in their loss to Buffalo. They committed a bunch of penalties and stupid mistakes which cost them dearly. They did outgain Buffalo by 70 yards despite losing the game. UTEP is capable of playing a lot better than last week and the line is more reflective of the bad UTEP that we saw last week because i highly doubt they would have been double digit home dogs to a middle of the pack Big 12 team had they beaten Buffalo. The Miners will be jacked up for this one and look for a much better game out of Vittatoe and company with the possibility of an outright upset.

Incubus · Sep 9, 2009

nd2000, I think you may have 2 winners here.

I think Georgia will certainly bounceback from last week's debacle with a 10 point victory over South Carolina. Actually, I'm forecasting a LOW scoring game. I already bet UNDER 39 in the game when it opened. I can see a 20-10 or 17-7 type final. PLENTY of defense in this one.

I believe your spot on with your reasoning/analysis of the UTEP play.

The current line at the Greek at the time of this post is now UTEP +13:

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width="98%" bgColor=#000000><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:30 pm (CBSC) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 width="98%" bgColor=#000000><TBODY><TR><TD width=35 align=middle>361</TD><TD width=185>Kansas</TD><TD width=85 align=middle>-13</TD><TD width=85 align=middle>63</TD><TD width=45 align=right>-475</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD width=35 align=middle>362</TD><TD width=185>Texas El Paso</TD><TD width=85 align=middle></TD><TD width=85 align=middle></TD><TD width=45 align=right>+375</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Everyone and their mother is piling onto Kansas. It opened up at -11. I'm hopeful this line will hit either +13.5 or +14 as kickoff draws near, and that's when I'll pounce on it.

The Miners will give the Jayhawks a real tussle at home IMO!

Best of luck on your 2 plays this weekend! :toast:

Incubus · Sep 9, 2009

nd2000 said:
***Underdog Play of the Week***

UTEP +12 over Kansas

I like big underdogs with good QB play that can score. UTEP definitely fits that bill here. Last week was a perfect example with Jake Locker and Washington. UTEP definitely underachieved their talent level last week in their loss to Buffalo. They committed a bunch of penalties and stupid mistakes which cost them dearly. They did outgain Buffalo by 70 yards despite losing the game. UTEP is capable of playing a lot better than last week and the line is more reflective of the bad UTEP that we saw last week because i highly doubt they would have been double digit home dogs to a middle of the pack Big 12 team had they beaten Buffalo. The Miners will be jacked up for this one and look for a much better game out of Vittatoe and company with the possibility of an outright upset.

I just found Phil Steele's writeup on this contest in this week's edition of PS, and it appears he's 100% in agreement with you:

UTEP 38 Kansas 37 [FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow][FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow]- UTEP gets "up" for these HG’s vs the B12 and LY only trailed powerful Texas 28-13 in the 4Q and should have beaten TT in ‘06, but lost in OT. They have 15 ret sts and QB Trevor Vittatoe is very underrated. Kansas is 2-10 SU in their 1st RG, but 4-1 ATS as an AF over 5 yrs and has veteran QB Todd Reesing and 14 ret sts. They have had just 3 non-conf AG’s in 5 yrs and lost all 3 to USF, Toledo and NW. KU is off a 49-3 win over FCS N Colo, in which they outgained the Bears 549-238. QB Reesing accounted for 4 TD’s in the 1H as the Jayhawks led 28-3 at HT. UTEP might have been looking ahead to this matchup as they lost a revenge gm at home to Buff, 23-17. The Miners outgained UB 372-309, but couldn’t overcome a 16-7 HT deficit as they committed 12 pen for 101 yds and had numerous mental errors in the 1H. Vittatoe was 27-45 for 233 yds, but failed to throw a TD pass for just the 3rd time in 24 career starts. UTEP appeared to score the potential go-ahead TD, but a scoring pass with :14 was nullified by a holding pen and UB held on. KU is the stronger team and only had a IAA foe LW, but UTEP is 6-3 as a HD under HC Price and capable of pulling the upset. [/FONT]
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As I said earlier, I'm waiting for either a 13.5 so I can buy it up to +14! It's still holding at 13, so we shall see over the next couple of days.

Thought you might like to see this. :toast:

nd2000 · Sep 9, 2009

Good advice Incubus. Let's wait it out and see if the line will go up more. Anything over +12 is excellent IMO. Nice to see that a solid capper like Steele is in agreement too.

nd2000 · Sep 10, 2009

Some additional plays i'll be on this weekend. As always, the chalk play of the weekend is my biggest play of the weekend.

Central Michigan +14.5 over Michigan State

This is a trap game for Michigan State. They are coming off a landslide opening day win and head to South Bend next week for a big time showdown. This does not figure to be a spot where we will get Michigan State's best stuff. I believe that Central Michigan will prove to be the best team in the MAC by season's end. They have easily the best QB and receivers in the conference and also have a solid DL. I think they can give the Spartans some problems. I don't think Michigan State is anymore than a sixth or seventh place Big Ten team this year. I also like that CMU is getting more points this week than they did at Arizona last week. That was a more difficult road trip IMO, and also, Arizona finished 6.5 points higher than MSU did in my final power ratings from last season.

Iowa -6.5 over Iowa State

Iowa was putrid in week one obviously, but that sleepwalk performance has definitely created a nice betting situation this week. Prior to the season, i saw a preseason line on this game of Iowa -11, so i have picked up 4.5 points of value after just one week. Make no mistake about it, Iowa is superior to Iowa State in basically every manner. Iowa is far superior on both lines of scrimmage and they also are stronger at QB. In my final 2008 power ratings, Iowa finished 20 points higher than Iowa State. Iowa State is a garbage team with weak personnel and they are learning new schemes as well. I see them struggling in this matchup of instate rivals.

Clemson +5.5 over Georgia Tech

I see GT as a somewhat overrated team coming into the season. I think their schemes threw the rest of the ACC for a loop last season, but this year I doubt that Paul Johnson will have the same success in that department. The blowout loss for GT at the hands of LSU in the Peach Bowl last year was a real eye opener for me. LSU simply manhandled them and GT's personnel looked totally overmatched. Clemson has better personnel than Georgia Tech overall. The Tigers may have the best overall defense in the conference, and their offensive line is much improved. GT has the homefield edge and a slight edge at QB, but i feel that Clemson's talent in the trenches will give them an ample opportunity to win this one straight up, so the small amount of points are attractive here.

Marshall +20 over Virginia Tech

This is a flat spot for VT. They are coming off a beatdown at the hands of Bama, and have a big non-conference game vs. Nebraska next week. Marshall is a good opponent to grab the points with because they figure to have a pretty good defense and VT may pull a sleepwalk job here. This could be a rather low scoring affair. I am just not impressed with VT overall. They only finished in the mid 30s in my final ratings last year, and they were pretty much manhandled last week, getting outgained by a huge 498-155 margin. They were lucky to only lose by 10. I was surprised to see them rated so high to begin the season, and I still think they are overrated.

Western Michigan +1.5 over Indiana

IU is garbage. Need i say more. Western Michigan the value play here after getting trounced by Michigan. No embrarrassment there though as Michigan would beat IU by a minimum of 30 points anyways.

Air Force +4 over Minnesota

Minnesota has a poor defensive front seven this year. I think they will really have a hard time with AFA's option attack, especially since the Flyboys have their best OL in years. Teams with better defensive front sevens have struggeled to stop the attack. On the other side of the ball, AFA has an underrated defense. Flyboys are a very live dog here.