NFL YTD: 22-14
College YTD: 73-51
College Chalk Plays of the Week: 10-1 ATS
1. Virginia Tech +4.5 over Da U (Thurs.) - Last year VT was favored by 16 and hammered Miami, FL 44-10. The gap has clearly closed some, but Virginia Tech is a young team that i look to continue to improve down the stretch. They are definitely on my buy list. I think Miami is a bit overrated now and VT as a dog in league play is never a bad play.
2. Texas A&M +8 over Baylor - I have these two teams rated about even. Neither team is very good. Baylor has been outgained 465-328 in league play, while A&M has been outgained 473-377 in league play. I just don't see much difference here and i think the line is an overreaction to A&M getting housed by a phenomenal Oklahoma team last week. This is a winnable game for A&M though.
3. Clemson -11 over Duke - This line would have been huge in week one. Something like Clemson -25, so the Tigers have picked up some nice line value here. Clemson has been one of the most disappointing teams this year, but this is a matchup that i feel is very good for Clemson. I look for Clemson to dominate the line of scrimmage and win easily against an overrated Duke squad. Clemson was favored by 17 at Duke last year and won 47-10. Duke just lost to a very poor NC State team last week and i don't think it was a fluke.
4. Notre Dame -3.5 over Navy - Simply, i feel that ND has superior talent to Navy and this line is identical to last year's. But ND has been much much better this season as they have outgained foes 374-325 ypg. Last year the offense averaged a mere 241 ypg, so the offense is a lot better this year. Even with their crappy offense last year, ND rolled up huge offensive numbers against Navy, so I don't see Navy getting many stops here with their undersized front seven. The onus will be on Navy's offense to cover and i think they will come up short as ND's defense is improved this year as well.
5. Purdue +17.5 over Iowa - This is a big flat spot for Iowa after pulling a big upset over PSU last week. Now lowly Purdue comes to town. Purdue was only 10-point dogs to MSU last week and the Spartans were favored over Iowa earlier in the year! This line is really inflated, and Purdue is not as bad as everyone thinks as they have only been outgained 356-344 in league play. This is a team that could pull a big shocker this weak given that I don't think Iowa brings anything close to their "A" game this week.
6. Auburn +8.5 over Georgia - What would this line have been in week one? Probably a PK or something. Auburn's offense has been terrible, but the defense is still pretty strong, only allowing 293 ypg and 16 ppg in conference play. Georgia's defense is a mess right now, so this should give Auburn a chance to score enough to cover a rather large spread at home.
7. FAU +2.5 over La-Lafayette - FAU was favored by 6 at ULL last year and covered the spread in OT. FAU has underachieved this year with 18 starters returning, but they have been coming on of late. ULL is a team that i feel is overrated and peaked early. They were handled easily by a bad UTEP team last week, exposing them somewhat. I look for FAU to keep the positivie mojo and "upset" ULL at home here.
8. ***Chalk Play of the Week Marshall -7 over UCF - The talent level between these teams is probably equal, but the situation greatly favors Marshall. UCF now stands at 2-7 with no hope for postseason play. They have nothing to play for here and Marshall is not a team they will be excited to play at all. Their offense stinks and I could easily see them throwing in the towel in the cold weather of Huntington, WV. I have been impressed with Marshall's play the last couple of weeks and this has the look of a hungry team. The same cannot be said about UCF. This one could get ugly.
9. Tulsa -4.5 over Houston - Tulsa totally destroyed UH last year 56-7, and while the result was a fluke, it was clear that Tulsa was the better team. Has Houston closed the gap from last year? Hell no. Tulsa's offense is even better this year and the Golden Hurricane has a big coaching egde here. With a much needed week of rest and coming off a loss, i like Tulsa to be ready to play here and i think they win a shootout over UH 49-35.
10. South Carolina +22.5 over Florida - Now that the line is over three scores, i will pull the trigger on South Carolina. The line was only seven in this game last year and Spurrier returned his best squad yet, so i don't think Florida has really increased the gap by that much (it appears that they have, but i'm not so sure). Florida will score plenty on SC no doubt, but i don't see them hitting their average of 43 ppg in league play because SC plays pretty good defense. I think they could get to 35 mabye, meaning SC has to only score 14 to cover. I think they are capable of getting that done. Florida is really good, but they cannot be expected to blow people out every week. After several blowout wins, a correction could be imminent this week. South Carolina has quietly been flying under the radar playing solid football of late.
11. Maryland +3 over UNC - Maryland has always been a great moneymaker as a home dog and I look for that trend to continue this week. I think UNC is overrated. They have actually been outgained in conference play, so it is very surprising to me that they possess a 27-19 scoring margin in league play. This is a team catching many breaks, making them look better than they really are. When all these turnovers dry up, will UNC be able to cover a spread?? I doubt it.
College YTD: 73-51
College Chalk Plays of the Week: 10-1 ATS
1. Virginia Tech +4.5 over Da U (Thurs.) - Last year VT was favored by 16 and hammered Miami, FL 44-10. The gap has clearly closed some, but Virginia Tech is a young team that i look to continue to improve down the stretch. They are definitely on my buy list. I think Miami is a bit overrated now and VT as a dog in league play is never a bad play.
2. Texas A&M +8 over Baylor - I have these two teams rated about even. Neither team is very good. Baylor has been outgained 465-328 in league play, while A&M has been outgained 473-377 in league play. I just don't see much difference here and i think the line is an overreaction to A&M getting housed by a phenomenal Oklahoma team last week. This is a winnable game for A&M though.
3. Clemson -11 over Duke - This line would have been huge in week one. Something like Clemson -25, so the Tigers have picked up some nice line value here. Clemson has been one of the most disappointing teams this year, but this is a matchup that i feel is very good for Clemson. I look for Clemson to dominate the line of scrimmage and win easily against an overrated Duke squad. Clemson was favored by 17 at Duke last year and won 47-10. Duke just lost to a very poor NC State team last week and i don't think it was a fluke.
4. Notre Dame -3.5 over Navy - Simply, i feel that ND has superior talent to Navy and this line is identical to last year's. But ND has been much much better this season as they have outgained foes 374-325 ypg. Last year the offense averaged a mere 241 ypg, so the offense is a lot better this year. Even with their crappy offense last year, ND rolled up huge offensive numbers against Navy, so I don't see Navy getting many stops here with their undersized front seven. The onus will be on Navy's offense to cover and i think they will come up short as ND's defense is improved this year as well.
5. Purdue +17.5 over Iowa - This is a big flat spot for Iowa after pulling a big upset over PSU last week. Now lowly Purdue comes to town. Purdue was only 10-point dogs to MSU last week and the Spartans were favored over Iowa earlier in the year! This line is really inflated, and Purdue is not as bad as everyone thinks as they have only been outgained 356-344 in league play. This is a team that could pull a big shocker this weak given that I don't think Iowa brings anything close to their "A" game this week.
6. Auburn +8.5 over Georgia - What would this line have been in week one? Probably a PK or something. Auburn's offense has been terrible, but the defense is still pretty strong, only allowing 293 ypg and 16 ppg in conference play. Georgia's defense is a mess right now, so this should give Auburn a chance to score enough to cover a rather large spread at home.
7. FAU +2.5 over La-Lafayette - FAU was favored by 6 at ULL last year and covered the spread in OT. FAU has underachieved this year with 18 starters returning, but they have been coming on of late. ULL is a team that i feel is overrated and peaked early. They were handled easily by a bad UTEP team last week, exposing them somewhat. I look for FAU to keep the positivie mojo and "upset" ULL at home here.
8. ***Chalk Play of the Week Marshall -7 over UCF - The talent level between these teams is probably equal, but the situation greatly favors Marshall. UCF now stands at 2-7 with no hope for postseason play. They have nothing to play for here and Marshall is not a team they will be excited to play at all. Their offense stinks and I could easily see them throwing in the towel in the cold weather of Huntington, WV. I have been impressed with Marshall's play the last couple of weeks and this has the look of a hungry team. The same cannot be said about UCF. This one could get ugly.
9. Tulsa -4.5 over Houston - Tulsa totally destroyed UH last year 56-7, and while the result was a fluke, it was clear that Tulsa was the better team. Has Houston closed the gap from last year? Hell no. Tulsa's offense is even better this year and the Golden Hurricane has a big coaching egde here. With a much needed week of rest and coming off a loss, i like Tulsa to be ready to play here and i think they win a shootout over UH 49-35.
10. South Carolina +22.5 over Florida - Now that the line is over three scores, i will pull the trigger on South Carolina. The line was only seven in this game last year and Spurrier returned his best squad yet, so i don't think Florida has really increased the gap by that much (it appears that they have, but i'm not so sure). Florida will score plenty on SC no doubt, but i don't see them hitting their average of 43 ppg in league play because SC plays pretty good defense. I think they could get to 35 mabye, meaning SC has to only score 14 to cover. I think they are capable of getting that done. Florida is really good, but they cannot be expected to blow people out every week. After several blowout wins, a correction could be imminent this week. South Carolina has quietly been flying under the radar playing solid football of late.
11. Maryland +3 over UNC - Maryland has always been a great moneymaker as a home dog and I look for that trend to continue this week. I think UNC is overrated. They have actually been outgained in conference play, so it is very surprising to me that they possess a 27-19 scoring margin in league play. This is a team catching many breaks, making them look better than they really are. When all these turnovers dry up, will UNC be able to cover a spread?? I doubt it.
