CFB YTD: 54-39 - 58%
NFL YTD: 16-10 - 61%
CFB Chalk Play of the Week: 8-1 ATS (this week is Florida -5.5)
Saturday's Action:
1. At 12 PM, my selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers +4.5 over Michigan State - I really am not a fan of Wisky, but i think they are in a good spot to catch MSU in a letdown spot. Wisky is 1-4 in conf. play and is desperate for wins to keep postseason hopes alive. Despite their 1-4 conf. record, Wisky has actually outgained Big 10 opponents 354-331 ypg on the season and they have played all the conference heavyweights (illinois, osu, psu, and iowa), so they are not as bad as people think. Look for Wisky to keep the momentum going here against a very average Spartan squad who will still be celebrating and relieved after playing OSU and UM back to back. They ain't getting fired up to play 1-4 Wisky.
2. At 12:30 PM, my selection is on the K-State Wildcats +11 over Kansas - Kansas got exposed badly last week. Their defense was lit up like a Christmas tree. K-State can score the ball, so this figures to be another Big 12 shootout. K-State actually outgained mighty Oklahoma last week, so this team can be plenty competitive as a big underdog.
3. At 2 PM, my selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies -3 over Colorado - This line is real weak. A&M has been improving on a weekly basis under Coach Sherman. The Aggies offense has been rolling pretty well in conference play and they should have no problems continuing to score against a weak Colorado D. The Aggies' weakness is of course their defense, but the Colorado offense has serious issues right now, getting shutout at Mizzou and only managing 14 against K-State. I think the Aggies will get a fair amount of stops in this game at home.
4. At 2 PM, my selection is on the Kent Golden Flashes +7 over Bowling Green. Finally! Kent finally exploded and played up to their potential and smoked Miami, OH (who beat Bowling Green). Kent is definitely the better team here (when they play up to their abilities) and their confidence should be much better now that they have finally gotten over the hump. Bowling Green is nothing special. They have been outgained 351 -321 ypg in league play and they will be fortunate to win this game, much less cover a full TD.
5. At 2 PM, my selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks +7 over Tulsa - It was no surprise to see Arkansas struggle out of the gate. Young team, new coach, few returning starters = bad start 9 times out of 10. Bobby Petrino is a jerk, but he is a good coach and Arkansas is starting to turn the corner under his guide. They have been much better of late and are covering spreads on a weekly basis. Tulsa has put up scary numbers against a horrible schedule, but they will face a class of talent and size here that will cause them problems. Last year when Tulsa went up against a much bigger Oklahoma team, they got crushed. Their undersized D was simply steamrolled. While Arkansas is a far cry from Oklahoma, they do have some beasts and non-BCS teams are almost always horrible investments as road favorites against BCS teams.
6. At 3:30 PM, my selection is on the Duke Blue Devils +7.5 over Wake Forest - Basically, i bet have been fading Wake on a weekly basis, and it has been working nicely. I have a very low opinion of the Wake personnel relative to the rest of the ACC. Wake has been outgained in conference play so they clearly are not a dominant team that can be trusted to win much less cover against an improved Duke squad.
7. At 3:30 PM, my selection is on the Florida Gators -5.5 over Georgia (chalk play of the day) - Time for sweet revenge for the team i believe is by far the premiere team in the conference. Florida has everything you want and more in a favorite. Good line play, excellent speed, great skill players, and most of all Motivation! A super motivated favorite is one of the most beautiful things in sports betting. I also really like the Florida checks in off a glorified scrimmage over UK while UGA checks in off a war over LSU last week.
8. At 8 PM, my selection is on the UAB Blazers +8.5 over So. Miss. There are three things i like about UAB here. First, they are the rested team. Second, they are getting over a TD in what figures to be a tight game. Finally, So. Miss is an autofade that has been burning holes in gambler's pockets all year long.
9. At 8 PM, my selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers +22 over Oklahoma - I'm going to fade Bob Stoops' men here as I really don't like how this Sooner D is playing. I have no doubt that they will beat Nebraska, but covering 3+ TDs is a different matter. Nebraska ain't bad. They have outgained league foes 471-363 yards/game and are scoring over 30 ppg. in conference play. I was also impressed with how they played at Texas Tech (only team to outgain red raiders all year long) and the Missouri loss was a phony blowout. What normally happens after a phony blowout is a team goes on a nice ATS run because they are underrated. Nebraska has gone on a 3-0 ATS run since that game (depending on the line you got in the Baylor game).
10. At 8 PM on ABC-TV, my selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders +6 over Texas. I have these teams rated dead even. Texas Tech has one of the biggest homefield edges in all of college football, and i feel they should be favored by five points in this ballgame. They have the manpower at the line of scrimmage to match Texas (unlike Mizzou) and superb skill players galore. I have no idea why in the world you would want to lay 6 points on the road against a team this loaded. Everyone should unload on the Red Raiders here. It will be my biggest wager of the year to date.
Good luck!<!-- / message -->
NFL YTD: 16-10 - 61%
CFB Chalk Play of the Week: 8-1 ATS (this week is Florida -5.5)
Saturday's Action:
1. At 12 PM, my selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers +4.5 over Michigan State - I really am not a fan of Wisky, but i think they are in a good spot to catch MSU in a letdown spot. Wisky is 1-4 in conf. play and is desperate for wins to keep postseason hopes alive. Despite their 1-4 conf. record, Wisky has actually outgained Big 10 opponents 354-331 ypg on the season and they have played all the conference heavyweights (illinois, osu, psu, and iowa), so they are not as bad as people think. Look for Wisky to keep the momentum going here against a very average Spartan squad who will still be celebrating and relieved after playing OSU and UM back to back. They ain't getting fired up to play 1-4 Wisky.
2. At 12:30 PM, my selection is on the K-State Wildcats +11 over Kansas - Kansas got exposed badly last week. Their defense was lit up like a Christmas tree. K-State can score the ball, so this figures to be another Big 12 shootout. K-State actually outgained mighty Oklahoma last week, so this team can be plenty competitive as a big underdog.
3. At 2 PM, my selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies -3 over Colorado - This line is real weak. A&M has been improving on a weekly basis under Coach Sherman. The Aggies offense has been rolling pretty well in conference play and they should have no problems continuing to score against a weak Colorado D. The Aggies' weakness is of course their defense, but the Colorado offense has serious issues right now, getting shutout at Mizzou and only managing 14 against K-State. I think the Aggies will get a fair amount of stops in this game at home.
4. At 2 PM, my selection is on the Kent Golden Flashes +7 over Bowling Green. Finally! Kent finally exploded and played up to their potential and smoked Miami, OH (who beat Bowling Green). Kent is definitely the better team here (when they play up to their abilities) and their confidence should be much better now that they have finally gotten over the hump. Bowling Green is nothing special. They have been outgained 351 -321 ypg in league play and they will be fortunate to win this game, much less cover a full TD.
5. At 2 PM, my selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks +7 over Tulsa - It was no surprise to see Arkansas struggle out of the gate. Young team, new coach, few returning starters = bad start 9 times out of 10. Bobby Petrino is a jerk, but he is a good coach and Arkansas is starting to turn the corner under his guide. They have been much better of late and are covering spreads on a weekly basis. Tulsa has put up scary numbers against a horrible schedule, but they will face a class of talent and size here that will cause them problems. Last year when Tulsa went up against a much bigger Oklahoma team, they got crushed. Their undersized D was simply steamrolled. While Arkansas is a far cry from Oklahoma, they do have some beasts and non-BCS teams are almost always horrible investments as road favorites against BCS teams.
6. At 3:30 PM, my selection is on the Duke Blue Devils +7.5 over Wake Forest - Basically, i bet have been fading Wake on a weekly basis, and it has been working nicely. I have a very low opinion of the Wake personnel relative to the rest of the ACC. Wake has been outgained in conference play so they clearly are not a dominant team that can be trusted to win much less cover against an improved Duke squad.
7. At 3:30 PM, my selection is on the Florida Gators -5.5 over Georgia (chalk play of the day) - Time for sweet revenge for the team i believe is by far the premiere team in the conference. Florida has everything you want and more in a favorite. Good line play, excellent speed, great skill players, and most of all Motivation! A super motivated favorite is one of the most beautiful things in sports betting. I also really like the Florida checks in off a glorified scrimmage over UK while UGA checks in off a war over LSU last week.
8. At 8 PM, my selection is on the UAB Blazers +8.5 over So. Miss. There are three things i like about UAB here. First, they are the rested team. Second, they are getting over a TD in what figures to be a tight game. Finally, So. Miss is an autofade that has been burning holes in gambler's pockets all year long.
9. At 8 PM, my selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers +22 over Oklahoma - I'm going to fade Bob Stoops' men here as I really don't like how this Sooner D is playing. I have no doubt that they will beat Nebraska, but covering 3+ TDs is a different matter. Nebraska ain't bad. They have outgained league foes 471-363 yards/game and are scoring over 30 ppg. in conference play. I was also impressed with how they played at Texas Tech (only team to outgain red raiders all year long) and the Missouri loss was a phony blowout. What normally happens after a phony blowout is a team goes on a nice ATS run because they are underrated. Nebraska has gone on a 3-0 ATS run since that game (depending on the line you got in the Baylor game).
10. At 8 PM on ABC-TV, my selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders +6 over Texas. I have these teams rated dead even. Texas Tech has one of the biggest homefield edges in all of college football, and i feel they should be favored by five points in this ballgame. They have the manpower at the line of scrimmage to match Texas (unlike Mizzou) and superb skill players galore. I have no idea why in the world you would want to lay 6 points on the road against a team this loaded. Everyone should unload on the Red Raiders here. It will be my biggest wager of the year to date.
Good luck!<!-- / message -->
