ND2000's Chalk Plays of the Week.....

[nd2000]

....are coming soon. For those who followed in '08, we managed to go 14-2 (88%) on these plays. While it will be nearly impossible to top that this year, i am going to try my best. Every week i pick the one favorite who i think will demolish their opponent and cover the spread easily. Often times, it is not an obvious favorite, which always helps our line value. There are many factors that i look for, including scheduling, emotion, mismatches at the line of scrimmage, etc.

In addition, i will also be adding an underdog play of the week this year throughout the season. For week one, i'm thinking about Miami, FL + the points over Florida State. I think FSU, at home, may be favored by 6 or 7 points, but i really like Miami's talent level this year, and an outright upset is quite possible in that ballgame. Stay tuned....

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Looking forward to it.

 

[nd2000]

Looking forward to it.

Me too. I don't bet on basketball or the NBA, so i'm excited to get back into the swing of things again.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I think Miami's D will be extremely tough this year. They will start to look like those speed driven Miami D's of old. The offense should still struggle some then get better throughout the year.

I see the Miami FSU game this year finishing with a baseball score.

Good to see you back ND2000!

 

[GoSooners]

nd....Good to see you back. And great record last season in blowout games. I don't know if you have certain guidelines or criteria you go by in picking blowouts, but one particular stat that I like to use as a general guidline that has had a pretty good record over the years is teams who are favored by 17-26 points tend to hit at a higher percentage than the -16 or under or the -27 over over. I don't think there is any big scientific explanation for it. Maybe part of the reason is when you get into 4+ TD favorite territory things get iffy with the favorites depending on who they have on board the next week, or choosing to play their reserves early and not quite getting the cover or getting backdoored. Again, this is not set in stone with me. If the circumstances are right, I'll bet a big favorite of 27+ points. I just don't make a habit of it. Good luck this season. By the way, I don't think Miami will be getting 6 or 7 points for that game. It's usually been a pretty tight line. In the last 5 years the biggest line has been 5.5 points. My guess is it's going to end up something like FSU -3.5 or 4.

 

[nd2000]

nd....Good to see you back. And great record last season in blowout games. I don't know if you have certain guidelines or criteria you go by in picking blowouts, but one particular stat that I like to use as a general guidline that has had a pretty good record over the years is teams who are favored by 17-26 points tend to hit at a higher percentage than the -16 or under or the -27 over over. I don't think there is any big scientific explanation for it. Maybe part of the reason is when you get into 4+ TD favorite territory things get iffy with the favorites depending on who they have on board the next week, or choosing to play their reserves early and not quite getting the cover or getting backdoored. Again, this is not set in stone with me. If the circumstances are right, I'll bet a big favorite of 27+ points. I just don't make a habit of it. Good luck this season. By the way, I don't think Miami will be getting 6 or 7 points for that game. It's usually been a pretty tight line. In the last 5 years the biggest line has been 5.5 points. My guess is it's going to end up something like FSU -3.5 or 4.

You could very well be right about that line. I am simply speculating based on the lines i was seeing those teams face at the end of last season. I had estimated that Vegas oddsmakers had Miami, FL about 5 points behind FSU at the end of last year. So, if they slide both teams up in the preseason ratings an equal amount, then we are looking at a TD spread at FSU. Who knows what they will do though. Part of the fun is just anticipating what the line will be.

The main thing i look for in picking blowouts is to fade teams that i think are playing over their heads, along with a strong emphasis on who i think will control the line of scrimmage. Teams playing over their heads often times have a dramatic crash and burn (ie. Texas Tech @ OU last year), and get utterly destroyed in a game where they were supposed to be competitive. This translates into games where you really don't have to sweat your money, unlike when you take a -28 and have to sweat out the reserves screwing up the cover.

 

[doogieboy]

I had you marked as one of my "go to" guys at season's end LY. Glad you are back. I'll take a 12-4 season if 14-2 is too much to ask.
GL this year!!!!

 

[silver7]

Hell Of A Yr In 08

Like everyone else one gm in the -17 range I like is Cal vs Terps! Another chalk I'm also watching is UTEP, for various reasons, revenge, ret starters on O, QB, WR & OL. Buffalo starting new QB OTR, etc.! LESS THAN 40 DAYS GUYS!!!!! @)

 

[slatter]

You think Cal is going to be favored by -17 over Maryland?

 

[dave11486]

I agree with Miami over FSU but we are only getting 3...4 at the most.

 

[nd2000]

You think Cal is going to be favored by -17 over Maryland?

Keep in mind that CAL was favored by 14 points at Maryland last year. That was obviously a bad line, but with CAL returning a good looking squad, and Maryland not so much, it is very reasonable to think CAL would be a 17 point favorite over Maryland at home.

 

[IrishTim]

Can't wait. Does that ND in your name stand for Notre Dame?

 

[GoSooners]

I think I saw somewhere where the early line for the Cal/Maryland game was set at -14. Which is about right imo. But you can count on it going up from there. Get it early if you like Cal.

 

[nd2000]

Can't wait. Does that ND in your name stand for Notre Dame?

Yes. I graduated from Notre Dame in the spring of 2000. I live in a Vegas suburb now. Make it back to South Bend for a game once every two years or so.

 

[nd2000]

Like everyone else one gm in the -17 range I like is Cal vs Terps! Another chalk I'm also watching is UTEP, for various reasons, revenge, ret starters on O, QB, WR & OL. Buffalo starting new QB OTR, etc.! LESS THAN 40 DAYS GUYS!!!!! @)

I hear a lot of people touting UTEP as a sexy pick to do damage this year. I'm not definitely not one of them for a few reasons:

1. They were outgained in C-USA play last year by 72 yards/game. That is very unimpressive. Rarely does a team that got outgained by that many yards/game come back the next year and outgain their conference foes by a wide margin, and that is what you need to do to dominate your league.

2. They have a middle of the pack OL in relation to the rest of the conferece.

3. In my opinion, the have a below average front seven on defense in relation to the rest of the conference. The linebackers are especially weak IMO.

UTEP does have good skill players and probably the conference's second best QB behind Keenum of Houston, but i think their line play on both sides of the ball will cost them dearly. The best thing they have going for them is their easy schedule.

 

[Conan]

Keep in mind that CAL was favored by 14 points at Maryland last year. That was obviously a bad line, but with CAL returning a good looking squad, and Maryland not so much, it is very reasonable to think CAL would be a 17 point favorite over Maryland at home.

nd, I know you keep up with teams out west so don't you think it might be wise to see if Cal's QB Kevin Riley comes around before laying that kind of lumber?

 

[nd2000]

nd, I know you keep up with teams out west so don't you think it might be wise to see if Cal's QB Kevin Riley comes around before laying that kind of lumber?

Well, i was not suggesting that CAL @ -17 is a great value bet. If that is how it came across, i apologize. All i said was that the -17 seemed like a reasonable number to me. As of right now, i have no intentions of betting on that game at that number.

 

[fivestarjake]

Well, i was not suggesting that CAL @ -17 is a great value bet. If that is how it came across, i apologize. All i said was that the -17 seemed like a reasonable number to me. As of right now, i have no intentions of betting on that game at that number.

i'll lay the 17 and not think twice. if vegas wants to give it less like most posters believe it should be well i will more than welcome it.

 

[silver7]

My Post Re. UTEP's Success Or Lack Of It Was Meant

I hear a lot of people touting UTEP as a sexy pick to do damage this year. I'm not definitely not one of them for a few reasons:

1. They were outgained in C-USA play last year by 72 yards/game. That is very unimpressive. Rarely does a team that got outgained by that many yards/game come back the next year and outgain their conference foes by a wide margin, and that is what you need to do to dominate your league.

2. They have a middle of the pack OL in relation to the rest of the conferece.

3. In my opinion, the have a below average front seven on defense in relation to the rest of the conference. The linebackers are especially weak IMO.

UTEP does have good skill players and probably the conference's second best QB behind Keenum of Houston, but i think their line play on both sides of the ball will cost them dearly. The best thing they have going for them is their easy schedule.

for the Buffalo game ONLY as clearly stated, i.e. home, revenge, etc.! Their lack of D will hurt at some point. But the firepower they have on O and getting both Houston & Tulsa in El Paso, should help. If they can split those 2 they have a chance to win the West in CUSA IMHO!! BOL to all.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I would not take Miami in any game. Their coach (Shannon), has demonstrated the capability of losing any game, for any reason, be it blown time outs, bad defenses, bad play calling, and the fact that this guy is not a genius when it comes to X's and O'x. Miami is going to probably be a fade or a pass for me this year. I have already faded them at UNC, and took the 2 1/2 points that the future line offered, though that was more of a set up wager for a possible midde than anything else. I am also looking at taking Ga.Tech +4 at Miami.