ND2000's Bowl Thread

[nd2000]

Will be posting plays in here as the bowl season moves along. Chalk Bowl Play of the Year is on UGA -7 over Michigan State.

Bowl Underdog Play of the Year will be on the Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 over Texas. Ohio State is the more experienced team and according to my count, may have as many as 10 NFL prospects on their starting D unit. Ohio State did not live up to expectations early in the season, but they came on down the stretch once Prior got some experience, posting several blowout wins. At the beginning of the year, Ohio State was one of the frontrunners for the national title and it was because of their big time talent level. I just don't think this young Texas team is that much better than Ohio State. In fact, I would not be surprised in the least to see an OSU outright upset.

I have no earthly idea why you would want to lay near double digits against a team with so much NFL talent, but many buffoons will do exactly that. Don't even think about playing Texas here.

 

[nd2000]

Taking USC -10 over Penn State. I like Penn State, but i think they will be overmatched here. The best defense PSU faced all year was in Columbus, and they struggled mightily to move the ball against Ohio State. USC has an even better defense than OSU. The PSU offense is going to get manhandled in this game. USC offense will have plenty of chances to cover this reasonable spread. Trojans have been dominant in the Rose Bowl more often than not.

 

[nd2000]

Adding ND +1.5 - Irish will push Hawaii around.
Adding FSU -5 - Seminoles will be far too athletic for Wisky to handle.
Adding TCU -2.5 - TCU was BCS caliber IMO. Boise played a piss poor schedule that included only 1 D rated in the NCAA's top half all year long.

 

[nd2000]

This is going to be a play that surprises most people as nearly the entire free world will be on the other side of this game. I am taking LSU +4 over GT. LSU has lost six straight ATS, so they are definitely on my buy low list here. LSU is the more talented team w/out question. They have underachieved basically all season, but they are loaded with NFL caliber talent on both lines of scrimmage. I think being installed as an underdog to an unglamorous team like GT will be something that Les Miles can hang his hat on to motivate these guys. Keep in mind that LSU was most vulnerable to the pass on defense all season. Unfortunately, GT does not have the dynamic passing game to expose the major LSU weakness. In general, the LSU run D has been stout, allowing only 3.3 ypc on the season. I think this will be an upset, as GT is not quite as good as everyone thinks.

LSU +4

 

[fballplaya]

Will be posting plays in here as the bowl season moves along. Chalk Bowl Play of the Year is on UGA -7 over Michigan State.

Bowl Underdog Play of the Year will be on the Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 over Texas. Ohio State is the more experienced team and according to my count, may have as many as 10 NFL prospects on their starting D unit. Ohio State did not live up to expectations early in the season, but they came on down the stretch once Prior got some experience, posting several blowout wins. At the beginning of the year, Ohio State was one of the frontrunners for the national title and it was because of their big time talent level. I just don't think this young Texas team is that much better than Ohio State. In fact, I would not be surprised in the least to see an OSU outright upset.

I have no earthly idea why you would want to lay near double digits against a team with so much NFL talent, but many buffoons will do exactly that. Don't even think about playing Texas here.

Hey nd....I hope all is well.......just curious as to who the 10 NFL prospects are on Ohio St's "D?"

Obviously Lauranitis & Jenkins
Possibly Cameron Heyward on the d-line....no Gibson, no Denlinger, no Worthington, no Lawerence Wilson either...
Marcus Freeman may be a 5th rnd pick at-best...and I will give you Ross Homan.

Chimdi Chikwa..it is still too early to tell.....Anderson Russell is at the very best a 7th rounder if at all.....same with Donald Washington.

As for Kurt Coleman....maybe a 6th or 7th rounder again....at best....

That gives us 2 locks (Lauranitis & Jenkins)
Then Heyward and Freeman and Homan as mid-to-late rounders....and possibly Coleman...with maybe one more sneaking into the draft...

That adds to 7 at the most....

 

[coitus_maximus]

Hey, I'll bet Georgia thought the same thing about GT.

Think Georgia could beat LooSeU?

 

[nd2000]

Two plays tomorrow (12/20):

Wake Forest -2.5
Fresno State -3

Both teams are more talented than their opponents by wider margins than the spreads reflect. Both teams are also getting tremendous line value. Anyone remember when Wake was favored by 17 over Navy back in October? I sure do. Wake played a stinker, but they were off back to back wins over FSU and Clemson, so it was a classic letdown spot. Wake handed Navy the game with six turnovers!! Very uncharacteristic of a Jim Grobe coached team.

On the other hand, anyone remember when Fresno was a 7-point favorite at UCLA??? Yeah, this team has the ability to play much better than they have shown. CSU on the other hand, has more or less overachieved this year. With Pat Hill no longer being courted by other programs, i look for a re-energized effort out of Pat Hill and his crew tomorrow.

Good luck....

 

[nd2000]

1-1 so far.

Tonight, I'm on Southern Miss +4.5 over Troy. Southern Miss outgained C-USA foes by over 100 ypg, a sure indication of a decent football team. I like my chances of taking them as a dog against a team from the weakest conference in my power ratings, albeit the Sun Belt champ in Troy. In my power ratings, i have Southern Miss rated 0.5 points weaker than Troy, so this should be a close game on paper.

 

[nd2000]

2-1 so far. Great win for Southern Miss. They deserved the win. They outgained Troy by about 100 yards in that game and showed a lot of determination in their comeback.

 

[billbeater]

Nailed it! Awesome Uniforms, well worth the timeout. :toast:
PowerSweep not doing well yet, going 1-4 so far. Lets see if that heats up on tuesday with TCU and ND to follow........

GL

 

[nd2000]

Nailed it! Awesome Uniforms, well worth the timeout. :toast:
PowerSweep not doing well yet, going 1-4 so far. Lets see if that heats up on tuesday with TCU and ND to follow........

GL

They are getting hammered so far. My database is showing value on both TCU and ND, so they should get back on track soon.

 

[TheGuarantee]

Agree with most of what you say in here...Locked in Oh St +10 when it came out (along with Fla -3)..S Miss was one of my favorite games and I played Wake as well...Only things I disagree on are Penn St and GT. GT you may be right based on the matchup but I actually feel people underrate this team if anything...they are very efficient and while they might not have the throwing game to keep LSU honest the option can still be very tough to stop. Interesting game I have to look into a bit more.

And Penn St - I've heard the same argument from most people I've talked to but I just think they are a solid team. Ten is a lot of points and I think they will give USC all they can handle.

Really like Fla St and ND, good luck.

 

[nd2000]

And Penn St - I've heard the same argument from most people I've talked to but I just think they are a solid team. Ten is a lot of points and I think they will give USC all they can handle.

Penn State is a very solid team, no doubt. But SC has more talent on both sides of the ball and they have a decided homefield edge, there is no denying that. The Trojans are notorious for running up the score in this game, and i cannot ignore that history. Another reason i like SC is because i think they are an underrated team actually. Their offense has not been nearly as productive as i anticipated this year. They have moved the ball at will against almost everyone, but the point output has been down a little. I think this team could be even more dominant than they have shown already, which is scary.

 

[cover2win]

This is going to be a play that surprises most people as nearly the entire free world will be on the other side of this game. I am taking LSU +4 over GT. LSU has lost six straight ATS, so they are definitely on my buy low list here. LSU is the more talented team w/out question. They have underachieved basically all season, but they are loaded with NFL caliber talent on both lines of scrimmage. I think being installed as an underdog to an unglamorous team like GT will be something that Les Miles can hang his hat on to motivate these guys. Keep in mind that LSU was most vulnerable to the pass on defense all season. Unfortunately, GT does not have the dynamic passing game to expose the major LSU weakness. In general, the LSU run D has been stout, allowing only 3.3 ypc on the season. I think this will be an upset, as GT is not quite as good as everyone thinks.

LSU +4

I understand your logic on laying action on the Tigers but if you do save yourself the stress and don't watch the game. Watching the LSU quarterbacks is so painful just from a football point of view but when you have money on them it is straight sicking. Put action the game and check back later.

 

[nd2000]

I understand your logic on laying action on the Tigers but if you do save yourself the stress and don't watch the game. Watching the LSU quarterbacks is so painful just from a football point of view but when you have money on them it is straight sicking. Put action the game and check back later.

I agree. Very good advice indeed. I will do just that.

 

[nd2000]

Adding FSU -5 - Seminoles will be far too athletic for Wisky to handle.

I have had a change of heart about this game after some further research. My initial instinct was FSU, but i think that Wisky may just be the underrated team here. Wisky outgained big ten foes 395-318 per game this year, so it was a bit surprising that they did not finish with a stronger record than they did. Wisconsin probably has the 2nd best OL in the Big 10 and the second best set of running backs behind Ohio State. I think they'll give FSU problems. Not sure if i will play Wisky, but i have officially dropped FSU from my list.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

agree with you on Wisconsin...

 

[billbeater]

ND, what do your numbers and your thoughts say about the sugar bowl? peace

 

[nd2000]

ND, what do your numbers and your thoughts say about the sugar bowl? peace

Utah + is a strong play according to my database currently. I am a bit worried though since they were pushed around by TCU. I have yet to make an official decision on this game yet. These bowl games provide vital data to my conference power ratings and i want to see how the MWC comes in relative to the SEC before i make an official play on this game. I will not lay the wood with Bama. It will be Utah + or pass. I'll keep ya posted.

 

[nd2000]

TCU -3 this evening - This is not my favorite play, as it is one where my gut tells me to lay off, but my data tells me that TCU is the value side here. I won't be making a big bet on this one, but I think the line should be more like TCU -6. These teams finished with very similar stats, but TCU did it against a schedule that was roughly 6 points stronger than the one Boise faced this year. I'll lay the wood here, but expect a close game for sure. I would not fault anyone for taking Boise + here.