ND2000's Bowl Chalk Play

[nd2000]

Obviously, for those who follow my chalk plays on a regular basis, we have made out like bandits this year, posting an incredible 13-2 ATS record.

My bowl chalk play this year will be on the Georgia Bulldogs -7 (buy the hook if necessary and go as big as you can) over Michigan State.

This is a mismatch talentwise, IMO. Georgia is a much better team who has underachieved somewhat, but they have played a brutal schedule to their credit. They have a lot more weapons on offense than MSU, and their D should be able to handle the one-dimensional MSU attack.

Michigan State may be the worst 9-3 team i have seen in many years. They were actually outgained in conference play by 25 ypg, which is not impressive considering the conference they come from. They received a lot of good luck along the way, but against their two toughest opponents, Ohio State and Penn State, the Spartans were clearly outclassed and destroyed. UGA has similar talent to Ohio state and Penn State, which bodes very poorly for old Sparty.

The thing i like most about this game is that Mark Richt has stated that he is using this game as the 1st game towards next season. Playing in front of a pro-UGA crowd in SEC country, I expect the Bulldogs to be plenty motivated here, despite their disappointing season, and there is nothing i love more than a motivated favorite against an overrated underdog.

Georgia will roll here and we'll close out our terriffic season in blowout style!

 

[MajorGCG]

Im really worried about UGA's motivation for this game regardless of Richt's comments. After the UF loss they went into the tank and I'm not sure they are going to come out of it.

 

[nd2000]

Im really worried about UGA's motivation for this game regardless of Richt's comments. After the UF loss they went into the tank and I'm not sure they are going to come out of it.

They'll be fine. There is nothing better to heal wounds from a brutal loss than time. The long layoff should definitely help UGA's mental frame.

 

[MajorGCG]

SEC does not perform well in the middling bowl games. With UGA being #1 this year to now playing in the Cap One - it's a huge let down and I just don't know if they show up. It's typical of the SEC to lose to lesser teams in these games. Bowls have always meant more to the Big10 teams for some reason.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

UGA is not Ohio St. or Penn St. MSU is capping off a successful season unlike UGA. Your right, MSU is is horrible 9-3 team and that's why the line is -7.5 and not closer to 2 or 3. This game could be a lot like last years capital one bowl. Everyone and their mother laid big wood on Florida only to watch them loose strait up. I have no idea why but the Big 10 teams have won the last 4 years strait up and weren't favored in any of the games.

For the record everyone thought UGA was going to have a really tough schedule but that's not what happened:

Ga Southern - IAA
CMU
Ariz St. - team has no pulse
Bama - crushed them at home
the Cocks - lucky to be in a bowl
Tenn - train wreck of a team (lost to f'ing Wyoming)
Vandy - not a good team
LSU - almost as overated as UGA this year
UF - destroyed the Dawgs
Auburn - more overrated than the dogs
Kentucky - not a good team
Ga Tech - loss

ND I respect your opinion and you are right more than you are wrong but I don't think this is going to be an easy cover at all. I'm not playing it so I wish you luck!!

 

[nd2000]

UGA is not Ohio St. or Penn St. MSU is capping off a successful season unlike UGA. Your right, MSU is is horrible 9-3 team and that's why the line is -7.5 and not closer to 2 or 3. This game could be a lot like last years capital one bowl. Everyone and their mother laid big wood on Florida only to watch them loose strait up. I have no idea why but the Big 10 teams have won the last 4 years strait up and weren't favored in any of the games.

I don't pick obvious blowouts. That is why there are always big question marks when i post these chalk plays of the week, but that is also how i get solid line value. Almost every week, with the exception of last week when i took Cal -34, i pick a cheap favorite who i feel has underachieved of late and may be ready to explode. In other words, i almost always take a team who has a lot of upside and a chance to increase their power rating. I try my best to buy low and sell high. I think UGA is a great buy low team here. It may not work out, but i really like my chances.

Best of luck - nd