NCAAF Week 1

[DesertNole]

2013 Recap:
2013 Regular Season 52-42 (+12.06 units)
2013 Bowl Season 5-3 (-1.2 units----homer FSU 6 unit play fucked me, ha)

Excited about the start of another season.

Week 1:

Texas A&M/USCe over 61-Think the offenses will set the tempo tonight. Both teams have very good offensive lines and skilled players on offense, and both have some shortcomings on defensive. A&M returns 9 players from a matador defense, they probably would have been better off with these kids graduating. USCe has some inexperience and depth issues in the defensive backfield that can be exploited. I have been hearing a lot of good things about Allen, and don't think that Sumlin is going to hold back just because it is his first start, he will try to jump on the Cocks early to take the crowd out of it.

 

[DesertNole]

Thursday: aTm/USCe over 61 WIN (1 unit)

Friday night:

UTSA +10 -105 (1 unit)
38 Seniors return for a UTSA team that finished the 2013 campaign strong, including 19 starters. I like backing teams that have this type of chemistry early in the season, especially along the line where they have about 140 combined starts. They will be breaking in a new QB, but be going against a Houston D that lost its two top corners. Houston still has plenty of firepower on the offensive side of the ball, but will be breaking in 3 new starters along the offensive line vs a very experienced defensive front. Despite Houston's offense and +25 takeaway margin last year, more often than not they found themselves in closer games. Will take the double digit line and look forward a possible outright upset to spoil the new stadium party.

Western Kentucky tt over 28.5 (1 unit)
The Hilltoppers should see plenty of possessions in this game, as Dino Babers takes his fast pace offense to Bowling Green from Eastern Illinois. Brohm takes over for the Hilltoppers, and will run the same offensive system and have plenty of playmakers at his disposal. Bowling Green's new defensive coordinator must deal with heavy losses along the defensive front and secondary, and I think that with the number of plays that his players will see, there will be lots of opportunities for WKY to hit some big plays due to coverage breakdowns.

 

[EzMoney012]

Good luck tonight

 

[DesertNole]

Friday recap:

UTSA +10 (1 unit) WIN
WKY tt over 28.5 (1 unit) WIN

YTD 3-0 (+3 units)

Looking over todays card, not seeing too much on first glance.

 

[DesertNole]

Saturday:

NC State -20.5 (1 unit)
NC State looks to bounce back from an awful first season under Dave Doeren. With FL transfer Jacoby Brissett under center playing behind an experienced O-line, I expect the Wolfpack to be much improved on offense. Ga Southern is undergoing a transition moving from FCS to FBS, which limits the number of scholarships that they have to work with. In addition, they are moving from a triple option attack to a spread under first year coach Willie Fritz, so I expect their to be some major growing pains due to the lack of personnel to run this type of offense.

 

[DesertNole]

Nebraska TT over 36.5 (1 unit)
Huskers should be able to put some points up vs an Owl defense that has to replace the majority of their front 7. Also think that Bo Pelini will not take his foot off of the pedal if given the chance to run it up on FAU, who fired his brother mid-season last year. Abdullah should have a big day and Armstrong should be better prepared to run the offense with a spring under his belt.

 

[DesertNole]

UVA +10.5 1st H (1 unit)
The UVA defense should be pretty stout this year, and I expect them to come out with lots of energy as UCLA sleepwalks through the first half. Mora is known for making great half time adjustments, so I am going to avoid taking the game line as I think UCLA could pull away in second half. UVA is not built to play from behind, and London is going to try to shorten the game and keep it close.

BC -17 (1 unit)
UMass is undergoing the transition from spread team to pro-set under first year coach. As with any team that is changing their scheme, there will be growing pains. BC returns 5 seniors along the offensive front vs an undersized def line, this should give the running game plenty of room while FL transfer Tyler Murphy gets comfortable.

 

[Dr.Lou]

Thanks for the insight. Got behind the 8ball, much needed valuable information here. Good luck this season. Looking forward to tonights big game

 

[DesertNole]

Adding:

LSU -3.5 -105 (1 unit)
Experienced O-line and deep stable of RB's vs a def that is replacing entire front 7. Not going to overthink this one. SEC vs. Big 10......

 

[DesertNole]

Saturday recap:

BC -17 (1 unit) WIN
NC St -20.5 (1 unit) LOSS
UVA +10.5 1st H (1 unit) LOSS
NEB tt over 36.5 (1 unit) WIN
LSU -3.5 (1 unit) WIN

3-2 (+0.8 units)
YTD 6-2 (+3.8 units)