NCAAB Systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

NCAAB systems thread.... don't really get many before JAN so i don't run them everyday. As such I missed a couple so far this year but caught this one for today:

PLAY ON double digit home favs off b2b fav losses and playing terrible opponent: 31-1 SU, 25-6-1 ATS (on OAK -12.5)

 

[rolltide]

btw, if either OAK/CHIST or WCAR/GAST had a total on the game the UNDER would be worth a look in same system....

PLAY UNDER teams playing on no rest after an overtime game they weren't huge fav or dog and didn't allow >100 points. 71-122-4 o/u (SDSU/PITT u119.5)

 

[rolltide]

YTD 1-1

UNDER with team in 3rd straight away game after b2b away blowout losses. 104-183-4 o/u (DEL/VIL under 134.5)

 

[rolltide]

if Texas vs Texas-Arlington gets a total tonight that will be an under...same system as DEL/VIL from last week. I'll post if I see one (unless y'all see it first)

 

[rolltide]

doesn't look like this one will be lined either...will wait and see

PLAY ON average away team with revenge after allowing 75+ in last meeting and opponent poor-average team themselves. 111-49-3 ATS (on UMKC)

 

[rolltide]

there is one for tonight as UMKC never got lined


OPPOSE ranked fav trying to oppose close loss from last year to this unranked team. 20-51 ATS / 0-0 (on Maryland +6)

 

[rolltide]

one other...

OVER two ranked teams and home team held last opponent <48. 51-15 o/u (DUKE/WISC over 135)

 

[rolltide]

3-2 YTD

FRI = OVER two ranked teams and home team held last opponent <48. 52-15 o/u (UK/TEX over 121.5)

 

[indiana]

R/T...........good luck tonight..........indy

 

[rolltide]

YTD 3-3

seriously, 22 missed free throws and combined 5/32 from 3?

 

[Biz]

I feel your pain. I had them too, and worse watched that absolute brickfest.

 

[rolltide]

missed the 140 this morning....

OVER top 25 dog or tiny fav visiting team that held previous opponent to <49 points. 89-39 o/u, 2-2 2014 (IOWA over 142)

 

[OzCap]

Rolltide: Have you consider removing tournament games?

If you remove tournament games that over percentage drops a fair amount, especially in the last 2-3 years. Still profitable, but much less so (especially if you consider more recent years more heavily).

Oz

 

[rolltide]

Rolltide: Have you consider removing tournament games?

If you remove tournament games that over percentage drops a fair amount, especially in the last 2-3 years. Still profitable, but much less so (especially if you consider more recent years more heavily).

Oz

no doubt March has been the best month but 57-30 o/u in non-March isn't so horrible

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L (marg, %win)	SDQL
31	13-18-0 (-1.35, 41.9%)	3.3	19-12-0 (2.71, 61.3%)	136.8	10-21 (-4.61, 32.3%)	month = 1
19	9-10-0 (-1.95, 47.4%)	3.5	11-8-0 (3.13, 57.9%)	131.3	6-13 (-5.47, 31.6%)	month = 2
41	16-24-1 (-1.68, 40.0%)	5.8	32-9-0 (5.93, 78.0%)	131.8	11-30 (-7.44, 26.8%)	month = 3
8	4-4-0 (-2.69, 50.0%)	3.1	5-3-0 (-2.31, 62.5%)	134.8	3-5 (-5.75, 37.5%)	month = 11
29	16-12-1 (0.07, 57.1%)	3.4	22-7-0 (9.09, 75.9%)	136.7	14-15 (-3.34, 48.3%)	month = 12

Showing 1 to 5 of 5 entries

 

[OzCap]

Have you run that same query for the last 2-3 seasons (recent performance is always a concern) and I think the net (outside of March) becomes more pronounced.

Interesting to see the reduced totals as the season goes on (134-137 down to 131-132)...especially around tournament time...food for thought

Thanks for all your contributions to the forum, I know these things all take work.

Cheers
Oz

 

[rolltide]

4-3 YTD

tracking a few new ones showing up today for Cal u129 and Oregon State -1 but just tracking at this point...

SAT = PLAY ON away team, both average teams, if lost to same opponent in high scoring game last meeting. 111-50-3 (on Arkansas State +16)

SAT = OVER two ranked teams and home team held last opponent <48. 52-16 o/u (UK/UNC over 133)

 

[indiana]

R/T..........good luck with your action today..........indy

 

[JSHTAX]

what is this system? how can one gain a better understanding how it works?

 

[rolltide]

6-3 YTD

both tracking plays won last night...one play tracking for today is But/Ten o129 and one official play:

PLAY ON fav off OT dog game allowing 67 or less vs opponent off loss. 43-15 ATS, 1-0 2014 (on Clemson -6)

 

[Ilovetobet]

good work yesterday