NCAA Week 9/20 (16-6 ATS)

[NASDAQ]

Sides 8-2
Totals 8-4
YTD 16-6

Been taking a look at the card and here are my early leans, have not played anything yet. Will probably wait to see some totals before I make my card final. Not going to do write-ups, so if you have a question about a certain game, let me know and I will do my best to give my take.

Leans:
Texas A&m
San Jose State
Tennessee
New Mexico
UL-Lafayette
Penn State
Arizona
Middle Tenn St
UAB

These could all potentially be plays as I don't really like anything else on the card, but will see how the lines pan out the rest of the week.

 

[drunkguy]

NASDAQ-

I'm on Kent St. wondering what your thoughts are and why you're leaning to PSU. thanks

 

[NASDAQ]

Drunkguy-

I was on Penn State last week and thought they could have pulled out a win with a little more fight, but nonetheless they covered. I think the number is pointing to Penn State this week. They have lost two in a row and were embarassed last time at home on national TV (I was getting that game in Austin). They are 0-2 ATS at home and 1-2 overall. You look at the offensive numbers and see Kent St averages 20 pts while PSU only 15.7, but the Nittany Lions are laying 24.5 points (notice it is 24.5 and not 24). Penn State has scored 23 vs Temple, 14 vs BC, and 10 vs Nebraska. The boys in Vegas are not stupid though. This line is 24.5 for a reason and I still think this team has the talent to get it done. It blows my mind that PSU was outrushed by 293 yards @Nebraska, and only lost by 8! I am looking for a breakout game here...if not, Joe Pa is in deeper trouble and that program will be sinking fast this year. Good luck to you, and hope that helped.

 

[NASDAQ]

First official play of this week:

Texas A&M +15
See some 14.5's and don't want to get any less.

 

[pinned]

Kent is vastly improved this year. New OC Martin has done wonders with the Flashes offense this year.
They hung in there with Pitt, although the Pitt QB was suspended for a qtr or a half for the game, then got blown out inthe second half.
Would like to see more pts scored by PSU to lay that type of wood?????

 

[pinned]

16-6 ats is impressive.
Man, u love those bad teams and the underdogs.But hey, they get the job done for you. Just hate to bet bad teams that's all.
However, you know college dogs will cover, just dont which ones. But with your record, hard to go against you.
You got some bad teams, ULL, etc....uab.

 

[NASDAQ]

Pinned-

I understand. I am a contrarion gambler, it is what has worked for me and has made me money in the past. I think favorites in all sports are over-valued for the public and I prefer to play dogs or "dog-like" teams (PSU). Kent State does not scare me offensively and that PSU pick will probably stand. I am just waiting for totals to be released before I make my final plays. Good luck to you.

 

[silver7]

Nice record so far. Can`t back PSU at this point Mills is not the answer, look for a let down off tuff gm LW, think 24.5 too many. Believe Jopa will play just get W w/Big 10 season on deck. Also like SCar a lot here UAB can`t score, one caution Tenn. on deck for "Cocks" 27-3. LOL

 

[NASDAQ]

After some more research and review:

San Jose State +2

Penn State -24
It is very tough to play this one, but in all reality, the more anti-PSU I hear, the more I like it. They covered me last week and I will ride them again here.

California +4

Tennessee +3.5
I like the Vols straight up here, but 3.5 is a great number.

New Mexico +16.5

Middle Tennessee State +21

Washington -26.5

UL-Lafayette +34.5

 

[NASDAQ]

Silver,

Thanks for the comments. I agree 24.5 is too many points, but that is a reason it makes me like the play. I think Mills has all the tools and talent around him to be a damn good QB, just out of synch and not clicking so far this season. I have said before, if Mills gets the boot, I have NO problem with stud athlete Micheal Robinson taking over behind center. Good luck to you.

 

[jwunderdog]

Nice start Nasdaq, I like some of your plays and against on none. GL

 

[jimmymo]

NASDAQ - Watch that Washington/Idaho game -- some local notes below


This is the second trip to Seattle for the Vandals as they started off their season with a game against Wash St. at Seahawks stadium - in which they covered a 28 point spread (barely, but got the $$$). In that game, they lost a tight end (Greer) to a broken leg. At this moment, the player remains in a Seattle area hospital battling complications that occurred during surgery -- last I heard he was still in serious condition. I can only imagine that the Idaho players will visit their fallen bretheren prior to gametime -- there is no telling how the players will react to such an emotinal situation -- they could come out sky-high and play an incredibly inspired game or, given the seriousness of the circumstances, could be subject to feeling that a football game really means very, very little in the big picture -- its just tought to tell.


On another note, the U of W coach Gilbertson has visited Greer on more than one occasion and has mentioned multiple times how difficult that type of situation can be. Further, Idaho Coach Cable was an assistant coach under Gilbertson at California and Gilby has defended Cable more than once this week regarding the problems that Idaho has had competing at the Div. I level. Gilbertson has been extremely frustrated with the way the Huskies have moved the ball on the ground and has empahsized the running game for the past two weeks (Bye week for UW). My feeling is that they run the ball 50 times this week, shortening the game. I think Gilby would be very happy with a nice, clean 14 point win.

Anyway -- Good Luck

 

[pinned]

First of all, good luck. Hope your hot streak continues.
Some tough games you have. Cal, Tenn, S jose, etc...
I do think Bustle is a decent coach at ULL
Wash should romp although Idaho played inspired football vs boise state last week. Saw parts of the game on fox spts net. Idaho really has no offense at all.
Not sure about MTSU, this was a great spread team over the last couple of yrs, but, not sure in this spot, third road game, and QB Smith can post some numbers.
Good LUck!!!!

 

[NASDAQ]

Jimmymo, thanks for the info. I used to think the Rx was a bunch of ego driven losers, but you guys are really impressing me. This is why I post my plays, so I can get feedback and learn each week on where to correct my approach to capping.

UDub game definitely scares me and I guess 4 TD's is a lot to ask for in this spot. I am hoping they will attack early so it doesn't look too bad. Yes, I think they will lighten up, if need be, late in the game and not pour on offense, but at the same time, football is football and they are not going to ease up just because of the coaches relationship and the player's health. Washington needs some momentum heading into Pac-10 play and this is a good team to get practice against in testing different things out.

Lots of ugly teams on the card, but that is just my style. Had two 10+ pt dogs last week pull SU wins (UNLV and LaTech), and the other 4 covered as well. (6-0 ATS with dogs so far). Looking forward for the totals to be posted so we can get some more action this week (you will see that my totals plays will improve weekly).

Take care fellas, let me know if you have any more comments or have any questions.

 

[NASDAQ]

Working on some more angles today and liked these plays to close out card (sides).

West Virginia +9

Clemson +4

Tulane -16.5

Arizona +25.5

Texas Tech +7

UTEP +38

Michigan -7

Arizona State +8

Arkansas State -3.5

I know that is a lot of plays, but this is the only sport I gamble on, so I like action during the season.

 

[NASDAQ]

Totals:

Hawaii/UNLV Under 63

Central Florida/Syracuse Under 64.5

Kent St/Penn State Over 48

Central Michigan/Ball State Under 51.5

New Mexico/Washington State Under 49

Temple/Cincinnati Over 47

N. Illinois/Alabama Under 50

Mississippi State/Houston Under 50

Stanford/BYU Over 48

Connecticut/Buffalo Under 48.5

North Texas/Arkansas Under 43

 

[Vinnie]

NASDAQ...why don't you like NFL??? hard to cap? unpredictable???

 

[ATX]

I'm interested in your thoughts on Texas Tech. I know there is revenge involved, but not sure about the Red Raiders ability to stay close on the road. I know which way the oddsmakers want us to go which is why I may pass.

Nothing wrong with a ton of picks, if you have even a slight edge you will make a lot more with this strategy. The people that think this is strategy is suicide usually put too much of their bankroll on each wager or dont understand this being a market. Good luck this weekend.

 

[NASDAQ]

ATX-

The Tech pick was a tough one to make. First things first, I don't typically look at past meetings in my analysis unless the teams play on a regular basis (conference games). These two teams aired it out last year in a game where either team could have taken the victory and NCS prevailed. Seems to me that linesmakers are begging for NCS money, especially at -6.5 and moving off a key number. However, I do not like playing teams with winning streaks vs teams with losing streaks (Texas Tech W2, NC State L2). Tech is a poor cover on the road, yes, but they haven't exactly been traveling to cupcake opponents (Oklahoma, Colorado, and Iowa State last 3 road games dating to last year).

Offensively, both teams have the tools to put up big numbers, but I think NC State comes in with a disadvantage giving a lot away (playbook/strategy-wise) last week vs Ohio St. The running game is almost null and void for both teams so it will come down to the pass and the pass only. Symons has fit right in after the departure of Kingsbury, and as well all know, Rivers is a big time QB. My concern is with the NCS defense giving up 34 pts/game, 20 to Western Carolina, 38 to Wake Forest, and 44 to an underachieving Ohio State squad.

In addition, looks like Joe Public likes the Wolfpack but the line is going the other way (red flag!). I have a few more systems of mine that Tech fits into (unable to divulge the details of those) and I also think they are very capable of the upset win here. Tech is a well coached and disciplined team and as long as they don't make any big mistakes and turn the ball over, they can cover this line. This is not one of my stronger plays, but I still like it enough to play it.

 

[NASDAQ]

Vinnie-

To be honest with you, the main reason I don't cap NFL is because I do just fine with NCAA. I am not a big fan of the pro game (as a spectator), but I think I am very capable of capping it successfully if I put some effort into it. There are so many games each week in college, and so many opportunities, that the NFL games do not entice me. I will admit that I do follow the spreads and am currently in the process of trying to incorporate some of my NCAA angles into the NFL. If things look promising, may start making some wagers.

If you are curious about some NFL games that you want me to look at, just let me know. I have no problem giving you my take on things.