NCAA (Week 10)

[United]

1 unit: 16-16 -1.60
2 unit: 15-19 -12.30

overall: 31-35 -13.90

I really like a lot of games this week. I've been trying to narrow the list down but decided to go with my reasons and stats. It seems like most of the games that I cut off the list have hit the past couple of weeks so no cuts this week. If I get some time I'll write up my reasons the next couple of days.

Thursday:

#312 Ball St/E. Mich over 47 -110 (1)
#316 Troy -18 1/2 -110 (1)

Sat:

#342 Miami F +2 1/2 -110 (1)
#362 Tenn -6 1/2 -110 (1)
#366 Air Force -6 1/2 -110 (1)
#367 Wiscy -12 -110 (1)
#367 Wiscy/Indy over 48 -110 (1)
#420 Cal -7 -110 (1)
#424 USC -7 -110 (1)

#352 Ariz St -4 -110 (2)
#394 Notre Dame -14 -110 (2)
#391 Oklahoma +2 1/2 -110 (2)
#386 Washington -21 -110 (2)
#414 Alabama -21 -110 (2)

 

[United]

Ball St @ E. Mich over 47

This one caught my attention when I saw that the o/u is 8-2 last 10 in this series and 4-1 on the o/u last 5 at E. Mich.

E.M lost last game 30-27 at N. Ill (57) (scoring 30 at N.Ill was good)
Ball St lost last game 58-17 at home to Toledo. (75) E.M not Toledo, will score on this D
Ball St giving giving up 37.6 ppg (that's really bad)(it's terrible)

Scary thing was E.M is 2-9 O/U last 11.

Idaho @ Troy -18 1/2

Idaho at 3-5 and 5-3 ats (and 12-2-1 ats last 15 games) covering team last 2 years
Troy at 6-2 and 2-6 ats (Troy lines inflated since upset over LSU)

So why Troy for me when I know the line is high? The line should be around 15,16.
I like this Troy team and after last years 34-13 W at Idaho I like them even more in this game. Two years ago Idaho came into Troy and knocked them off. Troy got some payback last year at Idaho. Anyway, just thinking that s lot of players remember getting knocked off at home and coach will remind them of that game.

Head to head Troy is 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ats last 4 games with an average score of 32-14. The 3 Troy wins were by large margins and the loss by 3. Long way to travel for Idaho in the middle of the week and I think they take a beating in this one.


I will start on Sat games later on this evening.

 

[indiana]

United.........appreciate all the effort you go thru with your threads........rotation #'s, thought's, write ups, etc........thank you and BOL...........indy

 

[BZ]

Good luck this week United!

 

[United]

VT @ MF +2 1/2

VT at 7-1 and 5-3 ats scoring 35.3 ppg and giving up 11.5 ppg.
MF at 7-0 and 3-4 ats scoring 32 ppg and giving up 18.7 ppg.

Based on the above line reads VT -10 and take away the 3 for MF at home and line should be -7. But it's not because you just can't give that many to a undefeated MF team at home that is in the mix for one of the playoff spots. They need this game real bad. A w in this one would go along way, especially with ND on deck. I'm not cutting VT short as their def has been really good and they have beaten MF many times.
What it comes down to for me was a undefeated home team in the mix and a dog at home for even more inspiration was just to much not to make a (1) play on them.
They have had some close ones, but they are 7-0 and obviously not getting a whole lot of respect as a home dog.

S. Miss @ Tenn -6 1/2

S. Miss at 5-3 and 6-2 ATS
Tenn at 3-5 and 2-6 ATS

S. Miss has been another one of those teams that have done well ats going 8-2 the last 10 games.

Tenn have lost 4 straight and rumors have been a flying. Any other time I would stay away from a game like this sandwiched between two conf games but Tenn is in a must win game. They need it to have a shot at getting closer to 500. They need it to stop a losing streak. Coach heeds it to save job. A loss here would most likely be the end.
Its been awhile since they have played a game in this series, but Tenn is 4-0 with a average score of 36-13 in the series. I just have to take a chance that Tenn will have some pride at home and beat a team that is from a weaker conf with a much weaker schedule than Tenn.

Army @ AF -6 1/2

Army at 6-2 and 3-5 ats
AF at 4-4 and 4-4 ats

Army scoring 31 a game and rushing for 362 yards per game.
AF scoring 38 a game and rushing for348 yards per game.

Army is so one dimensional they only pass for 33 yards a game.
AF not much better but at least pass for 122 a game.

I was close to betting a (2) on this game but Army could beat them.

Strong trends for AF:

AF 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ats last 10 in this battle with a average score of 28-15.
Air Force is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Air Force is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Army
Air Force is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Army

The Force it is!

Wiscy -12 @ Indiana
Wiscy/Indy over 48

Wiscy at 8-0 and 4-4 ATS
IU at 3-5 and 2-5-1 ATS

Indiana is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Wisconsin is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road (like it)

Wiscy scoring 35 ppg and giving up 12.8 ppg (stingy)
IU scoring 27 ppg and giving up 27.7 ppg

Wiscy 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ats and 8-2 O/U averaging 49.60 ppg in the series
Indy 1-9 straight up and 3-7 ats and 8-2 O/U averaging 16,8 ppg.

Get this: Last 4 games in this series all Wiscy slaughters
51-3
62-14
59-7
83-20

If I lose I lose but Wiscy and over for me!

Oregon St @ Cal -7

OSU at 1-7 and 3-5 ATS
Cal at 4-5 and 5-4 ATS

Oreg ST riding a 6 game skid and heading to Cal who generally plays well at home and are 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home.

OSU scoring 20 ppg and giving up 40 ppg, (no wonder they are 1-7)
Cal scoring 28 and giving up 30 ppg. (no wonder they are below 500)

Cal may be below 500 but a w in this one and they edge closer to a possible bowl game. Plus it's not often they have a good chance at beating OSU who are 7-3 straight up and 7-3 ats last 10 games in this series. (I'm bucking the trend cause Bears will be very hungry.

Arizona @ USC -7

Arizona at 6-2 and 5-3 ATS
USC at 7-2 and 2-7 ATS

We find USC at 7-2 but only 2-7 ats. Hmmm. They give to many points to opponents.
This time I think they may get it done.
They are 16-2 straight up last 18 games. (Not a huge number in this game)
USC won at Zona last year 48-14 (I like chances they win by at least 7 at home)
Arizona is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing Southern California(like it)

I'm aware that Zona has been lighting up the scoreboard at 45 ppg. On the other hand they give up 30 a game on the other end.

Taking the Trojans and giving the TD.

I'll give my reasons on the (2) plays during the world series game.

 

[United]

Colorado @ Arizona St -4

Colorado at 5-4 and 3-6 ATS
Arizona St at 4-4 and 4-3-1 ATS

Buffs: 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ats scoring 18.50 ppg in this series
AZU: 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ats scoring 38.6 ppg in this series

Arizona State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home (like it)

Buffs got them bad last year and took out a lot of frustrations in that game with a solid win.

Stats fairly close in this one, but going with the home team in a very reasonable spread and I truly feel like they have the better team.

WF @ Notre Dame -14

WF at 5-3 and 5-2-1 ATS
ND at 7-1 and 7-1 ATS

I have to give WF their due. They are having a really good season as proven by their record. Wake Forest is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games. (spread beater)

I think it stops here for WF. (they would have to play their absolute best game and ND their worst game to keep this game close. ND has played the much tougher schedule. As we all know their only loss was to Georgia (who is for real)

ND scoring 40 ppg and giving up 16 ppg.
Many times they could have won by even more points, but Kelly has called off the dogs and let everyone get snaps. ( Meyer would never do that)

They are flat out set on getting one of the 4 spots so I see no let down even though Miami is on deck. As coach Kelly said, "every game is a play off game for us"


WF at 5-3 with W;s over Presbyterian, BC, USU, Appl ST, and Louisville. I'm not sure if any of those teams are real good as Louisville has struggled all season. Point is I'm not that impressed with their W's compared to the Irish W's and schedule. Just to much talent IMHO.

Wake Forest is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Series: ND 3-0 with a average score of 30-8.

Oklahoma +2 1/2 @ Oklahoma St

Oklahoma at 7-1 and 4-4 ATS
Okl ST at 7-1 and 5-3 ATS

Stats are close:

Okl scoring 42.8 giving up 25.5 (close)
Okl ST scoring 44.5 giving up 24.3 (close)

Okl passing for 239.6 and rushing for 217 (close)
Okl St passing for 370 and rushing for 198 (close

Okl Def givng up 239 passing and 140 rushing (close)
Okl St Def giving up 232.7 passing and 125.3 rushing (close)


Oklahoma: 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ats averaging 40.90 ppg the last 10 in this series
Oklahoma St: 2-8 straight up and 3-7 ats averaging 29,6 ppg the last 10 in this series.

I really like Oklahoma to continue their dominance in this series.

Last two years Oklahoma won by scores of 38-20 and 58-23. (like it)


Oregon @ Washington -21

Oregon at 5-4 and 4-5 ATS
Wash at 7-1 and 5-3 ATS

Oregon scoring 35.5 ppg and giving up 29.2 ppg
Wash scoring 38.6 ppg and giving up 12.2 ppg (DEFENSE)

I never thought I'd see the day where I give up 3 td's and 21 points to Oregon Ducks!
It's happening this Sat and I'm laying the points.
That Wash D will create opportunities and I just know they will get some to's on this team. They only give up 75 yards a game on the ground.

Oregon is 901 straight up and 8-1-1 ats in this series, average score 41-25. (not scared

This streak ended last year at Oregon where Wash just crushed them 70-21!!!
Now they want to beat Oregon again but only this time on Wash home field, The fans have waited a long time for this one. They finally have the team and the coach to whip up on the Ducks at home in front of their crowd.

Oregon is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 games (Bet they wish they had their old coach back)
Oregon is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road (everyone getting payback)

I may lose the cover but that's gambling!


LSU @ Alabama -21

LSU at 6-2 and 3-5 ATS
Alabama at 8-0 and 4-4 ATS

LSU scoring 27.3 ppg and giving up 20 ppg
Bama scoring 43 ppg giving up 9.75 ppg.

Actually the line could be 28 as suggested by the point differential and give Bama 3 more at home. But that wouuld really be crazy! Or would it?

Big rivalry game so most say throw that stuff out the window. I can't help b ut look at LSU score of games compared to Bama's scores and buy into anything other than a Bama crush. That D is for real. LSU QB will get rocked. Bama rush D only giving up 66 YPG!!!
LSU didn't score a point last year at home in this game.
It's the Bama offense that has started to score and punch it in (mostly thanks to the D getting them the ball in great field position.

Getting tired of typing and know I've made a lot of mistakes so sorry about that.

Good luck my friends and I hope everyone is in good health!

 

[CoachCB]

GL United. Good write-ups.

 

[United]

Thanks Indiana and Coach.

good luck this week

 

[fly73]

bol united

 

[United]

9-4 with USC pending, getting to late, hopefully wake up to a W

Thursday:

#312 Ball St/E. Mich over 47 -110 (1) W
#316 Troy -18 1/2 -110 (1) L

Sat:

#342 Miami F +2 1/2 -110 (1) W
#362 Tenn -6 1/2 -110 (1) W
#366 Air Force -6 1/2 -110 (1) L
#367 Wiscy -12 -110 (1) W
#367 Wiscy/Indy over 48 -110 (1) W
#420 Cal -7 -110 (1) W
#424 USC -7 -110 (1) pending

#352 Ariz St -4 -110 (2) W
#394 Notre Dame -14 -110 (2) L (that hurt)
#391 Oklahoma +2 1/2 -110 (2) W
#386 Washington -21 -110 (2) W
#414 Alabama -21 -110 (2) L

 

[United]

recap: 10-4 +6.40

Thursday:

#312 Ball St/E. Mich over 47 -110 (1) W
#316 Troy -18 1/2 -110 (1) L

Sat:

#342 Miami F +2 1/2 -110 (1) W
#362 Tenn -6 1/2 -110 (1) W
#366 Air Force -6 1/2 -110 (1) L
#367 Wiscy -12 -110 (1) W
#367 Wiscy/Indy over 48 -110 (1) W
#420 Cal -7 -110 (1) W
#424 USC -7 -110 (1) W

#352 Ariz St -4 -110 (2) W
#394 Notre Dame -14 -110 (2) L (that hurt)
#391 Oklahoma +2 1/2 -110 (2) W
#386 Washington -21 -110 (2) W
#414 Alabama -21 -110 (2) L

1 unit: 23-18 +3.20
2 unit: 18-21 -10.70

overall: 41-39 -7.50

 

[Codebreaker]

Nice job! How do you play those games? Do you parlay games or play them individually? Thanks

 

[MoneyMiller]

Great wk United