NCAA (Wednesday)

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yesterday: 4-3 +1.65

overall: 328-258 +58.55

1: 289-235 +31.50
2: 39-23 +27.05

Just played these and will give reasons in the morning.

#528 Duquense/St Bonny over 160 -110 (1)
#546 Missouri St -6 1/2 -110 (1)
#557 Notre Dame -7 -110 (1)
#560 Iowa -7 1/2 -110 (1)
#561 Wichita St -12 -110 (1)
 

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United, thank you for posting your plays and especially for explaining the reasoning behind them. Keep up the good work and good luck for the rest of the season.
 

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Walk me through why Iowa deserves -7. They are the better team and at home but Wisconsin is no slouch. Seems like a few too many points, what am I missing?
 

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Walk me thru why Iowa is -7/-8? They are at home and the better team but Wisconsin ain't no slouch. Seems a few points too high.
 

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Walk me thru why Iowa is -7/-8? They are at home and the better team but Wisconsin ain't no slouch. Seems a few points too high.

He will tell you in detailed fashion in the morning. Just wait...

GL United. keep on taking it to em...
 

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Sorry for the double post and thanks for walking me thru. I ain't hating at all just always trying to learn more.
 

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#528 Duquense/St Bonny over 160 -110 (1)

Duq at 15-12 and 11-9 ats scoring 79.6 ppg giving up 77.2 ppg for a diff of 2.4
St. Bonny at 18-7 and 13-7-1 ats scoring 76.4 ppg giving up 71.2 ppg for a diff of 5.2

Duq are 13-7 on the o/u 7-3 home and 6-4 away
St. B are 12-9 on the o/u 4-5 home and 8-4 away

Numbers on the season average to 152.2. The line is 160. It is definitely higher than their total games might suggest.

Here's why: head to head numbers, and this is what counts in this one

The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Bonaventure's last 6 games when playing Duquesne (like it)

total points (line)

183 (150) 1-16-16
167 (145) 2-28-15
197 (141) 1-22-15
132 (151) 2-19-14
164 (146) 1-25-14
149 (146) 2-23-13

So the last 3 games including this year, and both last year all went over and they all would have been over the number for this game. (kind of like that on my side)

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Duquesne's last 6 games on the road (good, keep scoring points)
The total has gone OVER in 10 of St. Bonaventure's last 15 games (good, hopefully can keep it up)

Duq shooting 46.1 fg% and 68.6 % ft, and 36.1 from 3 pt land averaging( 9.2) 3's a game.
St. B shooting 43.8% fg, 77.7% ft, and 36.8 from 3 pt land averaging (8.1) 3's a game

Never know how a team is going to shoot the ball, or how the refs are going to call the game, that's what makes it gambling I guess. I'm going to take a shot at the over and always have the outside shot at maybe a OT to save me, although I hope it's not needed and then I won't have to sweat one for a change.

#546 Missouri St -6 1/2 -110 (1)

Drake at 6-22 (1-15) and 8-17 ats scoring 68.0 ppg giving up 72.9 ppg for a diff of -4.9
Missouri St at 11-17 (7-9) and 11-15-1 ats scoring 67.8 ppg giving up 73.5 ppg for a diff of -5.7

Diff of 1, MS worth 3-4 at home, line is close, but not indicative of to the importance of the game for MS. They are jockeying for position with Ind St and Loyola C for the conf tournament while Drake has a firm hold on the cellar two games behind Bradley.

There are reasons why Drake are 6-22 and 8-17 ats (including 4-9 ats away). They just aren't very good.

They have always struggled at Missouri St: Drake is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Missouri State (automatic play for me)
Missouri St are 23-1 at home in this series straight up. (not one of your better MS teams, but Drake is pretty bad this year)
MS beat won the first meeting this year 79-70 at Drake. Drake blew a big first half lead in that one. Hopefully they are behind from start to finish in this one as Missouri St honors their seniors. On Senior night MS are 30-3. (hopefully not to much of a distraction)

Riding the home team on Senior night, jockeying for position, against the cellar dweller in this one.


#557 Notre Dame -7 -110 (1)

Notre Dame at 18-8 (9-5) and 11-12-1 ats scoring 78.0 ppg giving up 70.2 ppg for a diff of 7.9
Wake F at 11-16 (2-13) and 10-13-2 ats scoring 74.8 ppg giving up 79.5 ppg for a diff of -4.7

Diff of around 13, WF worth 4 at home, I like the line for a road fav, Notre Dame coming off a heart breaking loss at the buzzer at GT. You have to forget that and move on. Especially when you have a shot at moving up a spot or two in conf play as they have the same amount of losses as Duke and Virgin1a in conf. They won't overlook this WF team. If WF hangs around and wins or covers this spread it's because they would have played one of their better games of the year. I'm not going to get to excited about their last win (74-58 over Boston College) because a lot of teams have done that to BC and a lot of teams have responded immediately when players have been suspended.

02/23/16 F Devin Thomas Suspension expected to miss Wednesday vs. Notre Dame (30.7 min, 15.8 ppg, and 10.2 rebs, (he will be missed and Augustine for ND will feast)
02/19/16 F Cornelius Hudson Personal dismissed from team

This is one of those spots that good teams respond to, especially this time of year. Notre Dame has not lost back to back games since the end of the 2013-14 season.
ND leads the nation in fewest turnovers (9.1)

I could go on and on with stats, players, etc,

I'm taking a rare road fav giving more points than I like to give on the road but you know my reasons why.


#560 Iowa -7 1/2 -110 (1)

Wisconsin at 17-10 (9-5) and 13-14 ats scoring 69.2 ppg giving up 64.4 ppg for a diff of 4.8
Iowa at 20-6 (11-3) and 13-10 ats scoring 80.1 ppg giving up 68.7 ppg for a diff of 11.5

Diff of around 6, Iowa worth 4-5 at home, line could be higher, I like the line and the home team. Iowa a 1/2 game behind Indiana (12-3) in conf standings with Maryland and Mich St breathing down their backs. Iowa started the conf season as about as hot as you could ever imagine. Neat Mich St and Purdue both home and away, were undefeated for the longest time. And now that they have taken their turn in the college basketball grind, (I talk about it all the time, what major team hasn't been put down at one time or another by espn, we would be out of teams) Take Wiscy for example, loose their studs from last year, coach quits on them, (yes he did), they are getting beat by teams heads up, lose some games at home,their done, their history. (right) the season continues, the grind is on. Point is deception by the media, (good and bad runs by almost every college team should be expected) It's just trying to figure out when the good and bad runs are over.

Iowa in the hunt for the big 10 conf title and if they win it and conf tournament probably would be a #1 seed. They have every reason to go for it tonight. They have had a much needed week off from play. They were exhausted! Their bench was giving them hardly nay scoring at all. The starters were physically wore out with the up and down style that Iowa plays their best at. Yes, Wisconsin took it to Maryland at Maryland and busted one heck of a home court streak. Wiscy are tough. They have improved more than any team in the big 10 from the start of the season to now.

Iowa's Uthoff and Jok are 2nd and 3rd in conf scoring at 19.4 and 18.6 respectively. Iowa very seldom loses at home. Even with the great Wisy teams they are only 2-5 ats last 7 at Iowa. Just a tough place to play at.

Iowa have won 16 straight home game and are 13-0 this season. (like it a lot)
Iowa averaging 83.5 ppg at home with a winning margin of +16.9. (all I'm asking for is 8)

Iowa are 8-5 ats at home. (a little edge)
Wiscy are 5-5 ats away. (could go either way)


Iowa may lose the game or may win and not cover the spread. Chance you take when you bet any game. My play is on Iowa and if I lose I lose.


#561 Wichita St -12 -110 (1)

Wichita St at 21-7 (14-2) and 17-9 ats scoring 74.1 ppg giving up 59.7 ppg for a diff of 14.4
Loyola C at 14-14 (7-9) and 12-15 ats scoring 64.8 ppg for a diff of 64.5 ppg for a diff 0.3

Diff of 14, LC worth 3 at home, line is where it should be. Wichita St clinched the conf title last Sunday with a convincing 84-51 win at Ind State. I witnessed it. I do not see any weaknesses with this team. Since their bad stretch where they lost two conf games and even lost a rare game at home they have been on a terror.

In their last 3 games since losing at home to N. Iowa by 3, they have beaten NMS (28), Missouri St (31), and at ISU (33). (on fire and rolling)

Wichita St leads the nation in road scoring margin at +14.1. A lot higher in conf play at +18.4.
Wichita St also leads the nation in turnover margin at +5.9 a game.

LC are doing what they did last year. They started off really bad in conf play and now are at 7-9 and jockeying for position in the standings for either 5th to 8th place.

LC have won 5 straight ats. (hot)

Still taking a chance with Wichita St. This team is so balanced and they play defense only giving up 59.7 ppg. (like it)

They have a big advantage on the boards averaging 37.1 to 30.3 for LC. (like it a lot)

Their bench looked real good as I saw a lot of bench players in their route of ISU.


Good luck everyone
 

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Walk me thru why Iowa is -7/-8? They are at home and the better team but Wisconsin ain't no slouch. Seems a few points too high.

I can only give my reasons why I played the game. I've lost 258 times already. (I'm sure I'm leading the forum in losses) Keep that in mind before you play any game that I played. You could be spot on and Wiscy could win straight up or at least cover this spread. Please don't let me change your play or mind. That would make me feel really bad if you lost then. If you play Iowa it's on you, not me.

Good luck tonight with your action
 

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Good looking plays U! Thanks as always for the breakdowns and reasoning. Glad to see u on the Irish and Shockers.
Good luck tonight!
 

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I can only give my reasons why I played the game. I've lost 258 times already. (I'm sure I'm leading the forum in losses) Keep that in mind before you play any game that I played. You could be spot on and Wiscy could win straight up or at least cover this spread. Please don't let me change your play or mind. That would make me feel really bad if you lost then. If you play Iowa it's on you, not me.

Good luck tonight with your action

Humble and correct statement. You said you dont like anyone influencing your plays and that is a smart way to play it. Way too many people let others influence who they play.
 

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Hi,

Thank you for responding. This is a tough one for me. Wisconsin doesn't score too easily but have had some impressive wins too.
 

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Hi,

Thank you for responding. This is a tough one for me. Wisconsin doesn't score too easily but have had some impressive wins too.

No problem at all. I'm just another person with thoughts and opinions. We all have them.

Wisconsin is good about controlling tempo of a game. They like to grind out every possession. Iowa likes to get out and run. I honestly think that whoever controls the tempo will win this one. I'm hoping Iowa's week off has helped to get their legs back under them. That way they can get out and run and hopefully get some easy scores and force Wiscy to play at a different tempo. That home court is supposed to be an advantage with the crowd and student body. I guess I'll find out tonight.

Good luck with your action tonight.
 

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I can only give my reasons why I played the game. I've lost 258 times already. (I'm sure I'm leading the forum in losses) Keep that in mind before you play any game that I played. You could be spot on and Wiscy could win straight up or at least cover this spread. Please don't let me change your play or mind. That would make me feel really bad if you lost then. If you play Iowa it's on you, not me.

Good luck tonight with your action
United my friend, Not trying to take anything away from you but I have 315 loses ALL documented...
 

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I can only give my reasons why I played the game. I've lost 258 times already. (I'm sure I'm leading the forum in losses) Keep that in mind before you play any game that I played. You could be spot on and Wiscy could win straight up or at least cover this spread. Please don't let me change your play or mind. That would make me feel really bad if you lost then. If you play Iowa it's on you, not me.

Good luck tonight with your action
Michael Jodan missed over 9000 shots in his career, didn't mean he wasn't good! GL United!
 

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I would easily pass you if I 586 picks this year. Good luck tonight
 

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If I add my nba and ncaab losses, I have like 350 losses!!!! But hey, I am still up units-wise! It's a grind...especially for a degen like me that LOVES action!
 

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