#536 Indiana St -9 -110 (1)
Missouri St at 8-12 and 9-10 ats scoring 66.4 ppg giving up 70.7 ppg for a diff of -4.3
ISU at 11-9 and 13-6 ats scoring 69.7 ppg giving up 67.8 ppg for a diff of 1.9
Line is right on. ISU at 5-3 in conf and MS at 4-4. It seems like a lot of points for the home team to cover when their conf records are so close. MS have beat the lower tier teams Bradley, LC, N. Iowa, Drake, while getting smoked by the upper tier teams, 13, 17, 16, 15, by Ill St, Evans, Wichita, S. Ill.
ISU 3 losses have been at Evansville by 8 (closer than the final score) Wichita St by 20, got smoked, and S Ill by 13, a 3 point game with 5 minutes to go. They just got some payback on Evansville at home on Sunday 82-65. They hit 14 3's, and Soph Scott had his 4th game in a row with 15 or more points. ISU perfect so far at home in conf play with margins of victory 17, 14, 12, 15 over Evansville, N. Iowa Ill St and LC. So they have been playing really good at home.
Missouri State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana State (struggle at ISU)
Missouri State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana State (could be better but will chance it)
Most stats are close with ISU being the better ft and 3 point shooting team.
ISU won at home last year by 15 and the year before by 15.
#542 VT +8 -110 (1)
Louisville at 16-3 and 8-7 ats scoring 80.4 ppg giving up 58.8 ppg for a diff of 21.6
VT at 12-8 and 8-5-1 ats scoring 76.7 ppg giving up 72.1 ppg for a diff of 4.6
Of course I would like to be getting the DD points like the diff suggests but the diff in this case Louis beat up on cupcakes. Don't get me wrong, Louis is tough. What a defense as almost every shot is contested. They will harass you both full and half court the entire game. They lead in every stat listed on the smart chart. They have a huge reb edge. Now I'm wondering why the hell I even played this game.
Why did I play VT?
Even though Louisville is tough they are only 8-7 ats and only 1-4 ats away.
VT are 5-2-1 ats at home.
Louis on the road in conf games: Beat GT by 4, lost to Clemson by 3, beat NCS by 5, other games away from home lost to Kentucky by 2, lost to Mich St by 4, Point is they are beatable away from home. In this case I'll take the 8 points with a team that has quietly played much better than expected.
I see margins in their conf games of NC (5), at ND (1), At GT (1), so I'm going to take a chance with the +8. The way this season has been playing out so far the home teams have been playing real good against the top notch teams.
#544 NCS -3 1/2 -110 (1)
GT at 11-8 and 10-6-1 ats scoring 76.4 ppg giving up 71.4 ppg for a diff of 5.0
NCST at 11-9 and 8-8-1 ats scoring 74.3 ppg giving up 70.9 ppg for a diff of 3.5
Diff suggest 1 1/2 and I give NCS a extra 3 at home so I have it at NCS -2 -3. Stats are close with GT the edge in all shooting stats. NCS at home should have the edge in the shooting stats.
Georgia Tech is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road (have yet to prove themselves on then road)
Georgia Tech is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against North Carolina St (like it, obviously a tough place for them to win at)
North Carolina State is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
North Carolina State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home (don't like it, but think it will change tonight)
This conf has been very competitive in league games this year. I just feel like the home team in this one has the edge and will finally get a much needed W. I watched a lot of the Duke at NCS game and they had their chances. Duke was playing in desperate mode and now I honestly think NCS will be in desperate mode. More of a play on NCS taking care of a visiting team that they have done very well with at home in the past.
#558 Colorado under 139 1/2 -110 (1)
Stanford at 11-7 and 7-8-1 ats scoring 70.6 ppg giving up 66.7 ppg for a diff of 3.8
Colorado at 15-5 and 11-6 ats scoring 78.8 ppg giving up 70.4 ppg for a diff of 8.4
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 6 games on the road (like it)
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games (like it)
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Stanford (got to like it)
In a matter of fact the o/u is 1-8 the last 9 games in this series. (like it)
Last year scores 56-55 and 58-64, year before 59-56 and 65-63. (got to like it)
The average score the last 9 games in this series is 65.2 to 59.98 for a average total of 125. (will chance it)
half time average 31.7 to 31.2 for a average of 62.9. (chance it)
good luck everyone,
I may lose but following this strong trend.