NCAA (Wednesday)

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Yesterday: 4-3 +.70

overall: 112-75 +29.60

Just played these. Will give reasons tomorrow. I have 7 more on my lean list. I will look at them again tomorrow when I have more time.

#528 Richmond -110
#544 Texas Tech -3 -110
#554 St. Mary's -20 -110
 

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United.........will be on Tex. Tech and St. Mary's with you............BOL with all your action tomorrow...........indy
 

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#528 Richmond -5 -110

Old D at 4-5 and 1-6 ats scoring 65.2 ppg giving up 57.8 ppg for a diff of 7.4
Richmond at 6-3 and 3-3 ats scoring 81.2 ppg giving up 75.2 ppg a diff of 6.0

Most of the stats are very close in this game, except one of the most important, shooting the ball.
Old D at 4.8% fg and 28.2% from 3 pt land (4.2) 3's a game
Rich at 48.2 fg and 38.8 from 3pt land (8.7)3's a game)

Old D are 0-5 away from home and 0-4 ats away from home

Old D are 2-9 ATSin its last 11 games on the road
Old D are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Richmond
Old D are 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Richmond

Old D could very easily cover this spread but I always like it when I am against the team that struggles on the other teams home court.


#544 Texas Tech -3 -110

SD.ST at 9-1 and 7-0 ats scoring 80.7 ppg giving up 64.3 ppg a diff of 16.4
Texas T at 6-1 and 3-2 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 66.4 ppg a diff 7.3

With such a big diff I took a closer look at the schedules between the two teams. SDS has w's over Chadron St (35), Houston Baptist (24), Wayne St Collie (27), so that would raise the numbers. I also noticed that they are a very good basketball team with some key wins on the road at TCU, Ill St and Minnesota. They lead in every stat but offensive rebs. They are a perfect 7-0 ats. My goodness this one is two easy. The big question: Why on earth would anyone take Texas T in this game. Then I asked myself, why is this line -3 in favor of TT?

This might be the reason for the strange line.

Injury report: on Don Best list says 12-8-15 George Marshall foot out indefinitely

his stats are below:

George Marshall 31.9 min, 12.9 ppg, 2.6 rebs, 2.9 ast, 1.3 steals, 37.1 fg, 80% ft, and 36.2 from 3 pt land

Their were also two other Rabbits on the injury report, one who hardly every played and the other name I couldn't even find anywhere in the stats.

Going to take a chance and play on TT at home with the veteran coach Tubby Smith, against a team that is tough and undefeated ats. If I lose then I can look back and say what a dumbass bet dumbass.


#554 St. Mary's -20 -110

S. Utah at 3-5 and 1-4 ats scoring 77.1 ppg giving up 75.8 ppg diff of 1.4
St. Mary's at 7-1 and 6-0 ats scoring 80.5 ppg giving up 61.5 ppg a diff of 19.0

I like it, especially with St. Mary's at home where they have been shooting light out.

St Mary's shooting 53.6 %fg, 68.7% ft, and 46.9 from 3 pt land, and coming off a 93-63 W over Cal Poly, where they made 19 3's and shot 61.3%

S Utah returns all 5 starters from their 10-19 team last year. They have to be better this year. They lost their first 5 games before going on a 3 game winning streak. In those 3 games they beat LaVerne 105-85 (where was Shirley) young people won't understand that reference, beat Utah Valley 68-54, and Bristol 79-41,

Of course the big concern here is the let down factor of St Mary's after that unbelievable shooting exhibition last game, how will they come out in this one. I don't think there will be any look ahead as they don't suit up again until Dec. 21 to play Frisco.

Taking the shot with them and hoping they continue their nice run at home and take care of business.
 

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#528 Richmond -5 -110
#544 Texas Tech -3 -110
#554 St. Mary's -20 -110

add:

#541 Arizona St +6 -110
#552 N. Colorado +5 110
#563 Winthrop +10 -110
#1552 N. Colorado under 63 1/2 -110
 

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South Dakota st scares me a bit, know some of the players-and their pretty salty, will ride the rest though
 

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United I really like the St Mary's play. St. Marys has 6 Australians on it s team and when Aussies are fortunate enough to come to the US and play college ball they generally stay in school for mall m4 years and they all have big motors and play hard for 40 minutes. They have no quit, in them and they are very coachable. Most of them are not nearly as talented a American players but like most Europeans they are sound fundamentally where as American players rely on pure talent and athleticism much more than learning basic fundamentals.

Look at Cleveland Cavlier Guard Matthew Dellaedova .....How many American 6'4 Guards have been all Americans or do possess are have more natural ability, are more talented, better shooters and their skils set is much better then Dellaevdova but are not in the NBA because they are maybe not a coachable or don't possess the work ethic or are not willing to work and learn as eagerly as these Australians are.

St. Marys is loaded with them and I like wagering on this team. GLTU.




[h=2][/h]
 

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#541 Arizona St +6 -110

Ariz St at 6-3 and 5-4 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 68.7 ppg a diff of 5.0
UNLV at 8-2 and 6-3 ats scoring 78.8 ppg giving up 64.9 ppg a diff of 13.9

I think it's a lot of point to give a team that has beaten you two years in a row by 22 and 6 points. Especially when that team has 4 starters back and your team has 2. Bobby Hurley is a awful good coach that turned that Buff program around in a hurry. Ariz St definitely have been tested on the road, beating Creighton (where everyone knows it's tough to win) hanging around in the Kentucky game, and a 5 point loss to Marquette. Nice w's over NCS and A & M so the have played a decent schedule.

UNLV is off to a great start. I'm really impressed with their D this year. Their only two losses were on the road to UCLA by 2 and Wichita St by 6. They have a couple of nice w's over Indiana and Oregon.

This should be a really good game. UNLV has the potential to win by DD'S, I just like the spot in which I think it could be a close to vest game.

If you play this game just be sure your aware that: Arizona State is 6-13-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road.


#552 N. Colorado +5 110
#1552 1st H: N. Colorado under 63 1/2 -110

First the 1st half under:

The average half time score between the two teams is 31.8 t0 30.7. Denver runs a slow down Princeton style offense. They usually dictate tempo. They are 3-6 on o/u and 0-3 on the road. They don't shoot the ball as well on the road. I would imagine with the end of the semester that the atmosphere at this game will not be very exciting.

Playing N. Colorado because I'm hoping to catch the odds makers off guard, I did say hoping. I'm sure I won't but NC does have a really good added punch in their line up now. A player named Anglin became eligible just last game and led NCto a W at Colorado St. He scored 19 points, going 5-7 from the field, 3-3 from 3 pt line and 4-4 from the ft line. He was a transfer from S. Miss.

Northern Colorado is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home, so hoping they can keep it close and sneak in a cover for me.

#563 Winthrop +10 -110

Winthrop at 6-2 and 0-1 ats scoring 83.4 ppg giving up 79.1 ppg for a diff of 4.3
Alabama at 6-2 and 4-3 ats scoring 65.3 ppg giving up 67.4 ppg for a diff of -2.1

If you take away Bama losses to Dayton by 32 and Xavier by 20 their diff would obviously be much better. They have also beaten Notre Dame and Wichita St.

Bama won their last game 51-50 over Clemson. They did it without 6'5 G Ingram, lost for the season, and was scoring 7.7 ppg, 6 rebs, 3.3 assists, 54% fg, and 505 from 3 pt land.
No doubt a big loss for Bama.

Winthrop is the kind of team that you think should be blown out of the game(and they might get it handed to them) but they just hang around.

Winthrop hung around at North Carolina St (8) and in their last game lost at Georgia (10) closer than the final score indicates.
They shoot a respectable 45.1 fg% and 74.6% ft, and 36% from 3 pt land. They are also a good rebounding team.
They finished last season at 19-13 and return 3 starters and supposedly have some good players who had to sit out last year.

They are catching Alabama at the right time IMO.
Semester break, most of the student body gone home, key player out, game sandwiched between Clemson and Oregon on deck.

Could be wrong, but taking a chance with the points.

good luck everyone
 

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South Dakota st scares me a bit, know some of the players-and their pretty salty, will ride the rest though

All games scare me when I bet them. I do know what you mean about this one though. I'm going against a strong ats streak against a team that just wins. Tubby will take care of things for me as I'm sure the refs will have some nice food in their hospitality room. J/K

good luck
 

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Excellent points hilltop

thanks for the info as it's always appreciated


United I really like the St Mary's play. St. Marys has 6 Australians on it s team and when Aussies are fortunate enough to come to the US and play college ball they generally stay in school for mall m4 years and they all have big motors and play hard for 40 minutes. They have no quit, in them and they are very coachable. Most of them are not nearly as talented a American players but like most Europeans they are sound fundamentally where as American players rely on pure talent and athleticism much more than learning basic fundamentals.

Look at Cleveland Cavlier Guard Matthew Dellaedova .....How many American 6'4 Guards have been all Americans or do possess are have more natural ability, are more talented, better shooters and their skils set is much better then Dellaevdova but are not in the NBA because they are maybe not a coachable or don't possess the work ethic or are not willing to work and learn as eagerly as these Australians are.

St. Marys is loaded with them and I like wagering on this team. GLTU.




[h=2][/h]
 

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All games scare me when I bet them. I do know what you mean about this one though. I'm going against a strong ats streak against a team that just wins. Tubby will take care of things for me as I'm sure the refs will have some nice food in their hospitality room. J/K

good luck
Sounds good, you know more about buckets than me, hopefully they spike the water in the rooms, GL
 

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Been lurking for a while on this site, love your picks and insight United. Made an account to share this regarding the ASU game (as you can tell by my name, that's my squad):

Savon Goodman (our best rebounder and tied for the Sun Devils leading scorer at 12.4 PPG, as well as a former UNLV player) is out tonight for personal reasons. Pretty big loss for us. I will say that under Hurley we have found ourselves in close "dogfight" type games all year, but without Savon it's gonna be a bigger challenge to keep up with a good UNLV team at the Thomas & Mack Center. Have to think that's why we've seen the line jump from -5.5 to -7 in favor of the Rebs.

Not sure if you factored this into your analysis already, but I wanted to share in case you hadn't. Best of luck on your picks!
 

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united we stand bol!
 

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Been lurking for a while on this site, love your picks and insight United. Made an account to share this regarding the ASU game (as you can tell by my name, that's my squad):

Savon Goodman (our best rebounder and tied for the Sun Devils leading scorer at 12.4 PPG, as well as a former UNLV player) is out tonight for personal reasons. Pretty big loss for us. I will say that under Hurley we have found ourselves in close "dogfight" type games all year, but without Savon it's gonna be a bigger challenge to keep up with a good UNLV team at the Thomas & Mack Center. Have to think that's why we've seen the line jump from -5.5 to -7 in favor of the Rebs.

Not sure if you factored this into your analysis already, but I wanted to share in case you hadn't. Best of luck on your picks!

Thanks for the info. I did not know that he was not playing but now that makes sense on why the line has gone up.

I did read about all this which I'm sure that you are already aware of being your team.

QUICK HITTERS: ASU has already played four games decided by three points or less (3-1)...Sun Devils have eight players averaging between 6.4/12.4 points and 18/31.4 minutes, and have had five players lead it in scoring and five players lead in rebounding...want a halftime adjustment stat? The Sun Devils are averaging 40.3 points in the second half this year (32.7 in the first half). Also, ASU earned its largest halftime deficit win since December of 2008 when it came back from 41-33 to win at Creighton...ASU had five players in double figures in the Texas A&M win. That happened once last year.

THE BENCH: A big reason ASU won at Creighton despite being down eight the half? Three guys off the bench in 21 minutes combined to go 6-of-10 from the field, 4-of-6 from three and score 16 points with zero turnovers. Obinna Oleka had eight points in 11 minutes, including a three-pointer at 3:25 that broke a tie at 72. Andre Spight for the second game in a row had solid second half, as he hit a three-pointer at 8:10 to give ASU a 67-66 lead and a layup at 7:13 to give ASU a 68-67 lead. Kodi Justice hit a three-pointer at 11:23 to give ASU a 61-57 lead. The bench trio of Justice, Oleka and Spight are providing ASU 60.6 minutes, 20.3 points and have made half (28) of ASU's 56 three-pointers.
 

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