Mississippi +14 1/2 @ Florida
Miss at 9-4 and 6-7 ats scoring 80.7 ppg giving up 77.5 3pg for a diff of 3.2
Florida 0-3 and 8-4 ats scoring 79.2 ppg giving up 66.5 ppg for a diff of 12.7
Diff of 9 1/2 and Florida worth 5 at home and line is right on.
I like Miss to get the cover for several reasons. First of all they have the edge in off and def rebs, 3 pointers, and ft%. Now it's highly unlikely that Miss will win this game but they generally play Florida tough and have been covering the spread which is the important thing to me.
Florida is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Mississippi (nice trend that I like as they are usually giving way to many points in tis game)
Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi (would love to see 0-6)
Last 10 games in this series: decided by 5, 9, 1, 1, 4, 3, 14, 4, 6, and 3.
Mississippi 3-7 straight up and 8-2 ats with a average score of 67.0
Florida 7-3 straight up and 2-8 ats with a average score of 71.
Now if they bust this streak and lose by more than 14 I know the gambling gods are telling me to get the hell out!!!
WV -4 1/2 @ Texas Tech
WV at 12-1 and 8-2 ats scoring 91.9 ppg giving up 59.5 ppg for a diff of 32.3
Texas T at 11-2 and 5-4 ats scoring 80.0 ppg giving up 60.0 ppg for a diff of 20.0
Diff of 12 and TT worth 5 at home. Line could be higher but TT is tough at home and plus getting points makes this a vey dangerous play. Obviously, a play that I still like the road fav because of their style of play and the stats that they have totaled so far this year with the press.
WV still leading the nation in 26 turnovers a game and 13.9 steals a game. That is some defense that only allows 59.5 ppg. They aren't doing to bad on the offensive end scoring 91.9 ppg.
Not only are they 12-1 but a very impressive 8-2 ats and 2-0 ats on the road. (relentless)
West Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against West Virginia (I know it's a different TT team but still like WV to win and cover)
West Virginia 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ats average score 77.8
Texas Tech 1-9 straight up and 3-7 ats average score 69.2
Upset, maybe, I'm already upset on the season so Frick it! I'm betting who I like to cover!
Bowling Green @ Akron -11
Bowling Green at 6-7 and 5-6 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 71.5 ppg for a diff of 2.2
AKRON at 10-3 and 3-5-1 ats scoring 78.8 ppg giving up 67.2 ppg for a diff of 11.6
Diff of 9.4 and Akron worth 3-4 at home so line could be 13 or 14 for this game. Regardless, I like them to cover in this one at home. Akron can shoot the 3 ball as they are averaging 11.1 a game. They are shooting 48.3% fg and 70.4% ft compared to BG 42% fg and 66,7% ft.
Bowling Green is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Akron (like it)
Like this a lot: last 10 games in this series
Bowling Green 0-10 straight up and 1-9 ats averaging 58.9 ppg
Akron 10-0 straight up and 9-1 ats averaging 72.4 ppg
Definitely rates a (3) for me. (snakes quit biting me)
Western Michigan @ Ohio -10 1/2
WMICH at 4-8 and 5-4 ats scoring 75.2 ppg giving up 78.3 ppg for a diff of -3.1
OHIO at 8-3 and 2-5 ats scoring 75.9 ppg giving up 66.3 ppg for a diff of 9.6
Diff of 12.7 and Ohio worth 3-4 at home. I think we have a very nice line. I think this line must have been set with the notion that Antonio Campbell would miss another game with his knee injury. You see he didn't play last game vs Urbana.
Campbell stats: team high 18 ppg and 10.1 rebs a game shooting 52% fg.
I went to their website, I searched his name, and I finally found what his coach said about him not playing in the Urbana game. Coach said his knee was bothering him a little so they decided to sit him out so he would be ready for the MAC home opener against Western Michigan. I'm thinking that their best player is going to play in this game and the coach did exactly what I would have done and not played him against Urbana.
You know I like this:
Western Michigan is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Ohio
Western Michigan is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Ohio
And I know every game is different but I couldn't help but notice the score of a common opponent.
Western M lost at Cleve St by 23
Ohio won at home by 18 over Cleve St
So I don't know, but this game made my cut list to narrow down to 5 posted plays.
Dayton @ St Bonny -1
Dayton at 10-3 and 7-4 ats scoring 76.5 ppg and giving up 64.6 ppg for a diff of 11.9
Bonny at 9-4 and 4-6-1 ats scoring 85.2 ppg giving up 77.4 ppg for a diff of 7.8
Diff of 4.1 and Bonny worth 4 at home. Line is right on spot at a pick. Unfortunately I'm giving the point. I almost played this game over but with Dayton leading scorer in doubt I backed off the total and played the side. Dayton coach said he fell on his back and most likely will miss some time. (what does that mean) He was already coming off a wrist injury and now add the back to the picture and who knows for sure. I'm counting on him not playing in this game, but if he does he certainly wouldn't be close to 100% one would think.
Cooke stats: 31.8 minutes a game, 18.7 ppg and teams leading rebounder at 5.6 and a 71% ft and a 35.2% from 3 pt land.
Throw in the fact that the Bonny's have the 3rd best scoring guard tandem in:
Adams: 3rd in nation in scoring at 23 ppg and averaging 3.2 3 pointers and 6 assists
Mobley: 20.5 ppg and 6 rebs a game
Bonny's are 11th in nation at 77.5% ft (that's a nice advantage in a close game)
The two teams split last year, oddly both losing at home.
Dayton has owned the Bonny's in this series going 15-2 straight up. (I don't always follow the strong trends) I'm hoping the Bonny's win last year and a experienced team at home with the other team on the road without the services of their best player will be enough to get the upset. I guess it's not a upset when your the fav but tell that to a fired up Bonny team!
good luck and good night as it's getting very late
