Morehead St @ Eastern Wash -2 1/2 (1)
Morehead St at 2-6 and 0-4-1 ats scoring 76.3 ppg giving up 77.3 ppg for a diff of -1.0
E. Wash at 7-2 and 4-1 ats scoring 81.3 ppg giving up 78.3 ppg for a diff of 3.0
Diff of 4 and EW seems to always do well at home so I'll give them 3-4 value at home. Line could be 5-7 in my estimate.
I'm liking EW at home where they are 5-0 straight up last 5 and 2-0 ats.
I especially like the 83.7% from the ft line (like it a lot in a close game)
I like their 40% 3 pt shooting and even a couple of % points higher at home.
Morehead only shooting 64.9% from the ft line.
The other thing I like about this matchup is the direction that Morehead St is headed (that's been bad)
They opened up with 2 straight W's and since then have lost every game. One of those W's they beat Lipscomb by 14 and recently just played them again and lost by 14. (28 point swing in this current drought).
They have lost by 8, 13, 13, 15, 34, and 14 during this tailspin or crash might be a better description.
This is their 3rd straight game on the road and 6thin the last 7 on the road. Someone needs to straighten out the athletic director about scheduling.
Anyway, I'll try the home team and this colud be a high scoring game which I was close to trying the over b ut decided just to play EW.
Monmouth @ Memphis -3 1/2 (1)
Monmouth at 8-2 and 2-4-1 ats scoring 78.6 ppg giving up 70.8 ppg for a diff of 7.8
Memphis at 7-2 and 2-3 ats scoring 82.1 ppg giving up 71.2 ppg for a diff of 10.9
Diff of 3 and Memphis worth 4 at home. Line could be 7 but Monmouth is no longer a sleeper team with the books. (2-5 ats) They sort of snuck up on teams that last couple of seasons and now have a reputation. They also have a team that just knows how to win games with 4 returning starters and a heck of a lot of experience. I do like the home team in this one.
Memphis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home (always like that %)
Memphis has not lost at home this season.
Coach Tubby Smith is a proven winner. This program improved immediately with his hire.
While Monmouth has been winning like expected, I still think because of their schedule that they will find this game much tougher to get a road win on.
It most likely will come down to Monmouth 3 pt shooting and they are very good at it. I would expect that Smith will have addressed that issue and not leave those dudes wide open.
Small play (1) on Memphis as I do value their home court and really like the Lawson brothers for Memphis. More talent for Memphis and at home hopefully will be enough to sneak out a W.
UCRiver @ Santa Claus -5 (1)
UCRIV at 2-4 and 1-3 ats scoring 69.5 ppg giving up 70.5 ppg for a diff of -1.0
Santa at 4-6 and 2-6 ats scoring 65.5 ppg giving up 65.0 ppg for a diff of 0.5
Diff of 1 1/2 and SC worth 3 at home. Line is right on the money. I have a couple of reasons why I like Santa C in this one. They area at home and River has struggled on the road.
UC Riverside is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road (like it)
UC Riverside is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road (like it)
UCR hasn't played a game since Nov 30 at UCLA (98-56) not surprising since UCLA is the real deal. Point is long layoff and hopefully their will be some rust. (just trying to find a edge)
River got them last year at River by 14. Santa C has most of that same team back for a shot at some payback and are at home.
I have to be honest about this game as I really do not know much about either program.
Simply playing the home team with some revenge, and supposedly (5) starters back. I do see where Feagan hasn't played and his stats were very good last year. So only 4 starters back. Must be a reason why SC a 5 point fav and will find out tonight if right or wrong.
thoughts:
Temple at Nova:
things seem to point towards Nova and the over, I've had bad luck with Nova games and stayed away
Tenn Tech at Tenn:
Watched Tenn Tech play Mich St this past weekend. They play hard and physical. They also play 10 players. They just wouldn't let Mich St put them away last week. Of course Mich St is crippled with injuries.
No play for me but leaned towards the points but couldn't do it at Tenn.
Denve at Bama:
Only lean was the under as 9 0ot of the last 10 have gone under in this series. But new coach for Denver and a faster style of play so I stayed away.
Montana @ Oregon:
Leaned towards the points simply because Oregon appears to be either over rated or just getting to much credit with the line makers. I'm sure they will start playing like expected. I'm just having a difficult time in figuring this team out.
Couldn't play the dog on the long run but maybe a 2nd half play may present a opportunity.
South Car St @ Clemson
SCS proved me wrong in a bad way this past weekend or A & M. Either way if forced to play Clemson at home is a faster paced team than A & M and a lot of other teams have crunched SCS. I'll wait for half time just to see what the score and the line is for the 2nd.
C, Ark at Mich:
I lean towards Mich but looking at all of their past games they haven't pounded anyone by 25+ margins. I was worried about them getting up and then coasting the 2nd half of the 2nd half. I was planning on playing them the first half but line is ridiculous. how much did that west coast game at UCLA take out of Michigan. They kept up the first half and fizzled out the 2nd half at UCLA. That's why I was contemplating a 1st half play only.
North Carolina Central @ LSU:
Once again I leaned towards the points in this one. I just don't think they can win the game. Generally when I play a dog I'd like to think that they have a shot at winning the game out right and henceforth the points are a nice bonus. when it came down to it, I just couldn't push the button in this one.
Good luck everyone and please excuse all of the mistakes I make in typing stuff up.
