#720 Central Michigan -6 -110 (2)
N.Illinois at 18-9 (7-7) and 13-9 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 66.6 ppg for a diff of 7.1
C. Michigan at 14-13 (7-7) and 8-10-2 ats scoring 76.4 ppg giving up 73.2 ppg for a diff of 3.2
Diff of 4, CM the mandatory 3 at home, what the heck is up with this line, pick it or -1 maybe, but -6, N. Illinois 13-9 and C. Mich 8-10-2 ats. Why is that line so high? After sifting through some of their previous meetings at CM, lines ranged anywhere from one at -3, and the rest between 8 and 10. So maybe this line is really not that far off base considering the diff between N. Illinois at home and away.
Northern Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road (good)
Northern Illinois is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road (good)
Northern Illinois is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Central Michigan (very good)
Northern Illinois is 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Central Michigan (the spread is what matters and like %)
N. Ill are 1-6 on the road in conf games. (young team that has gotten better this year but still losing on the road in conf play)
CM are 5-2 at home in conf play and have a little revenge angle after losing by 5 at N. Ill. (CM healthy for this game)
N. Ill gets the advantage on the boards, all shooting stats fav CM. They average 10 3's a game and shoot at a even higher % at home.
CM only turns it over a 9 per game. N. Ill turning it over at 13 per game.
So probably am spotting extra points in this game. I just feel like CM is going to get a comfortable W at home by dd's if they are stroking them 3's tonight.
#714 Buffalo -5 1/2 -110 (1)
Kent at 18-9 (9-5) and 10-13 ats scoring 75.1 ppg giving up 72.5 ppg for a diff of 2.6
Buff at 15-12 (8-6) and 12-11-2 ats scoring 76.4 ppg giving up 74.7 ppg for a diff of 1.7
Diff of 1, Buff worth 3-4 at home, line is a couple of points more than I like, but that seems to be the chance you have to take when the home teams in conf play.
Most of the stats are close with Buff having the edge in rebs, ft shooting.
Kent State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo (good, must be a tough place for them)
Kent State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo (that's what matters, ATS covers)
Both teams come in with 7-7- conf records. Buff won the first meeting at Kent by 9.
In a matter of fact: Buff has won the last 5 in this series by margins of 9, 6, 25 , 9, and 11. (now Kent St may bust this streak, but I'm riding it one more time)
#728 Florida -4 -110 (1)
Vandy at 16-11 (8-6) and 12-13 ats scoring 76.9 ppg giving up 66.9 ppg for a diff of 10.0
Florida at 17-10 (8-6) and 13-11-1 ats scoring 72.9 ppg giving up 66.2 ppg for a diff of 6.7
Diff of 3, Florida worth 4 at home, throw in a couple of points because home stats are usually better than the visitors road stats when it comes to points scored and shooting %.
Line is right.
Vandy the edge in shooting stats, but not that big of diff, and home hopefully will even that out for this one. Florida the edge in the rebs. Both teams with 8-6 conf records and this game is big for both teams when it comes to making the tournament. Teams can not afford to lose games like this at home when they are fighting to hang in or get in the dance. Vandy got them in the first meeting at home by 1. I certainly think Florida can take this one at home.
Vandy struggles on the road at 4-8 ats and a 2-5 away record in conf. (like it)
Vandy last 5 games at Florida all losses by 3, 26, 8, 11 and 4. (no guarantees in hoops, but you should try to find trends and % that favor you and you will usually win in the long run)
So simply playing the home team in a big conf game and hoping that they get the fans involved and some big mo to get the w and cover.
#734 Minny -12 1/2 (1)
Rutgers at 6-21 (0-14) and 9-13 ats scoring 67.9 ppg giving up 79.7 ppg for a diff of -11.8
Minny at 7-19 (1-13) and 9-15 ats scoring 69.3 ppg fiving up 74.1 ppg for a diff of -4.9
Diff of 7, Minny worth 4 at home, line is close, not enough imo,
So here we go. The battle for last place in conf. First a little about Rutgers that I'm sure we all are already aware of by now. Sanders is out for the 3rd straight game, (has a 4 game suspension) and he was Rutgers top player. Rutgers just doesn't shoot the ball well. When they get behind (usually most of the time) they struggle to shoot the 3, (30%). They are careless with the ball turning it over 13 times a game, 15 in conf play, and they don't have much of a bench with all of their injuries and problems throughout the season.
Rutgers are 0-7 on the road in conf play with margins of defeat by: 16, 24, 36, 11, 26, 25, 22 (WOW) I may lose but automatic play for me
Minny coming off their first conf win over Maryland at home 68-63. (yes it is a big deal) first win, haven't quit, Pittino keeping them competitive for most of the games.
I'm not trying to sell Minnesota to anyone. Fact is they are 7-19 and 1-13 in conf play. But they are a much better 1-13 conf team than Rutgers 0-14 team.
Minny home conf 1-7 with some very competitive games at home. Lost at home to Michigan (8), Purdue (4), Illinois (5), Indiana (7) Michigan St (8),
I really don't think Minny will be overlooking Rutgers, that would be ridiculous to even think. They want another win at home in conf play. SO this may be the toilet bowl game but one of the toilets has a much better handle on it in my honest opinion. (I'm wrong a lot)
#758 Manhattan -3 1/2 -110 (1)
St. Peters at 12-15 (10-8) and 14-9 ats scoring 65.9 ppg giving up 67.2 ppg for a diff of -1.4
Manhattan at 12-14 (9-8 and 12-11 ats scoring 69.5 ppg giving up 73.4 ppg for a diff of -4.0
Diff of 3 or so, I value Manhattan at 3 at home, line might be a tad high, but don't really know a lot about this conf or either team to be honest.
I do know St. Peters won the first game this year by 1 point. They are now 1-9 straight up in this series as the broke a 9 game winning streak by the Jaspers.
Now can they break the streak of losing at Manhattan? I see they have lost by 17, 5, 14, 15, and 8 the last 5 games at Manhattan. (like it)
Saint Peter's is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Manhattan (like it a lot)
Manhattan is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home (playing well at home and getting it done)
St Pete big advantage on the boards in this matchup (don't like it)
Manhattan big advantage in shooting the ball. 43.8% fg, 73.9% ft, and 36.3 from 3 pt land averaging 7.5 a game.
Saint Peters shooting stats are:.......................41.8%, fg, 65.7% ft, and 33% from 3 pt land at 6.4 per game.
So taking a chance with the Home team that has owned its opponent at home and in the series.
#752 Mississippi -11 -115 (1)
Missouri at 10-17 (3-11) and 15-8-1 ats scoring 68.1 ppg giving up 71.5 ppg for a diff of -3.5
Mississippi at 17-10 (7-7) and 15-11 ats scoring 74.5 ppg giving up 71.5 ppg for a diff of 3.0
Diff off 6 or so, Miss worth 4 at home, line is right on target. Mizz are having a down year and have not played very well on the road.
Mizz are 0-7 in conf play on the road losing by margins of: 12, 15, 9, 34, 13, 9, and 18. (got to like those numbers when you have 11 as the number to cover)
I also like the offense of Mississippi. They have gone over in 7 out of their last 9 home games. When I spot this many points I like a offense that scores points instead of those grinding offenses and defenses that shorten the game and number of possessions. The more possessions in this game the better the chance of the better offense covering the number.
I also think Miss at 17-10 and 7-7 in conf can get on a roll and win out and move up can strengthen their resume for an at larger big in the dance.
Miss are 5-2 at home in conf play and I like their chances to get a nice W and hopefully cover at home tonight against this team that they should beat by DD's imo.
Good luck everyone
k:
