#741 Clemson +10 -110 (2)
Clemson at 12-6 and 9-5 ats scoring 69.8 ppg giving up 62.4 ppg for a diff of 7.4
Virginia at 13-4 and 7-8 ats scoring 73.2 ppg giving up 61.2 ppg for a diff of 12.0
Diff of 5, giving 10, Virginia is worth 4 at home. If you base this on conf play only, I figure I'm getting a pretty good bargain. Clemson has won 5 straight conf games including 3 straight over ranked teams. Blossomgame (got to love that name) wasn anmed conf player of the week. He has been on fire. He put up 25 last game against Miami. I like the way Roper PG takes care of the ball. He has a 3.6 A/TO ratio for 13th best in the NCAA. In the 5 conf games he has had 42 assists to only 5 to's. Clemson will need that kind of effort and smartness if they are to hang around in this game.
Virginia are 28-1 at home covering the last 4 seasons.
V ranks 10th in scoring D (61.2).
They are coming off a loss last game at Florida St. They will be fired up and I'm sure the crowd will be fired up.
They are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Clemson.
They have covered ats last 3 in this series.
I'm going to take the visitor because they are on a roll. You just don't open conf play up 5-0 and beat teams like Miami, Duke, Louisiville, at Cuse, and Florida St and not be agood team and very well coached. I realize that they don't stand much of a shot at winning this game at Virginia I'm just hoping they believe in themselves enough to come out and be very competitive and keep this game within 10. After all, Virginia has lost 3 out of their last 4 games so they are human.
#744 N. Illinois -3 1/2 -110 (2)
C. Michigan at 9-8 and 3-6-1 ats scoring 77.7 ppg giving up 75.1 ppg for a diff of 2.6
N.Illinois at 14-3 and 8-4 ats scoring 76.6 ppg giving up 63.8 ppg for a diff of 12.8
I may be getting suckered in in this game as I have the line at -12. I can understand dropping down do to schedules and adjusting for conf play but not this many points. I did read where a key player Baker missed nearly the entire Western Michigan game, Travon Baker still ranks seventh in conference play in scoring (18.3 ppg), first in three-point field goals per game (3.8) and tied for 15th in assists (2.5 apg). He was ejected early in the game. On their website he is listed as one of the probable starters for this game. I can't find anything anywhere if he is out for this game. Regardless, my play is on the Huskies at home.
N. II are 11-0 this season at home and 5-1 ats. (like it)
N.Ill rank 14th nationally in fg% defense holding opponents to 37.6 fg% and 25th in scoring def at 63.8 ppg. (love it)
Northern Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Central Michigan, (done well in this series last 3 years.)
C. Mich makes 10 3's a game and is a very veteran team, but, are 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road. (struggle)
So I'm taking the really hot team at home against the struggling road team.
#748 Xavier -9 1/2 -110 (2)
Georgetown at 11-7 and 10-6 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 68.3 ppg for a diff of 5.4
Xavier at 16-1and 12-5 ats scoring 80.1 ppg giving up 66.0 ppg for a diff of 14.1
Line could be at 13 to 14 if you went strictly by the diff and then figure in home court. We all Know that would be insane to give GT that many points in this big conf game. I didn't realize that if GT wins the game the two will be tied at 5-2 in conf play. GT will be fired up. They hung in there with Nova last week, although they were the home team they did play well.
There is so much I like about X in this matchup I really don't now where to start.
X has 4 players averaging in dd's, (very balanced with a strong bench)
X leads the Big East in rebounding with a +10.8 margin and are 9th in the NCAA in rebounding.
What I really like is they have a player (Davis) who is 3rd in the NCAA in ft percentage at 93.5% (give him the ball at crunch time for sure when other teams have to foul)
Even better, a rare stat and you must be a very good team to accomplish this stat: X has made 342 ft's and their opponents have only attempted 308!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No wonder they are 12-5 ats and 7-3 ats at home.
I'm aware that GT is tough, conf game, and all of the other variable in a big game like this, but this is truly a home field advantage, my daughter played a college game at Xavier and the place was insane FOR THE GIRLS GAME. (that was 10 years ago) A tough place to play, X leads the series 4-1 and 4-1 ats, and I may lose this game innthios crazy world of college hoops but feel like I'm on the right side. I guess it's not the right side unless you cover, but you know what I mean.
#752 Aces -14 1/2 -110 (2)
LC at 8-10 and 5-12 ats scoring 62.1 ppg giving up 62.2 ppg for a diff of -0.1
Evansville at 16-3 and 8-5-1 ats scoring 78.7 ppg giving up 65.5 ppg for a diff of 13.2
Line is where they have to put it considering the diff between the two teams. LC had big expectations coming into the season and have been a major disappointment so far. They got a much needed conf win on the road at N. Iowa last game. They returned 4 starters and won one of those rinky dink season ending tournaments last year. Point is they can be good. Point is they better be good. Point is Evansville is good. The Aces have a group of players, in which most of them have been around for 3 and 4 years playing together. They have Coach Simmons system down and they shoot the ball, very well and play very good def. They have the active leading scorer in college hoops in Ballentine and the leading rebounder in the country in Mockevicius at 14.3 a game.
The Aces are riding a 13 game home winning streak and realize that they are finally getting the attention that they deserve. Playing on CBS sports channels tonight won't hurt them any either. Last tiem outn they beat Ill St on the road and shot 50% form the field. Ballentine put in 25 and went 10-10 from the line.
I'm pretty sure Coach Simmons has reminded his team that Loyola beat them last year at home by a point. I'm sure they didn't need reminded. Like I mentioned earlier, this LC team has underachieved and they know a win at Evansville would be a big stone in bringing them back for the rest of the season. It's a ton of points, so many but I just have that feeling the Aces are going to be on fire and that their style of play will force LC out of their slow mode.
#756 A & M -8 1/2 -110 (2)
LSU at 11-6 and 5-10 ats scoring 82.8 ppg giving up 75.7 ppg for a diff of 7.2
Tex A & M at 15-2 and 6-4-2 ats scoring 79.5 ppg giving up 64.8 ppg for a diff of 14.7
I like the line in this game with the home team. I don't like it as much since I read where a key player got a DUI, as mentioned in my above thread. Since then I bet a unit on then other side, so in essence I still have A & M but not as much. Anyway, on with my reasons. Another big conf game in which LSU could tie for the conf lead with a road win at A & M. Both teams could be at 5-1 with a LSU W. Easier said than done at this venue. These two team usually hold serve and cover the spread against each other on their home turf. A & M are 4-1 heads up and 4-1 ats last 5 at home in this series.
Jones for A & M was named sec player of the week for the 2nd time this season. All he did is shoot46.2% fg and a incredible 51% form 3 pt land.
A & M playing really tough. They went into Georgia and came out with a 35 point W.
We all already know about LSU and Simmons. He is the real deal. He's scoring 20 ppg, 12.9 rebs and 5.1 assists. The entire team is playing so much better now. They got some key players back and will be a tough out.
I still like A & M at home. They are so well coached and have 4 returning starters and transfers who have helped make them even a better team this season.
They have aft shooter(Collins) who is 26 for 26 from the line.
As a team they shoot 86.4% from the line under 2 minutes. Interesting stat in which it means they hit their ft's at crunch time since they are only shooting 65% from the line, or they get the ball into the right players hands.
I expect college station to be packed (12,989) to watch their Aggies and of course to see Simmons play. The away venue for LSU has not been good. They are 1-5 on the road and 1-5 ats. In hope this number increases tonight.
#757 UNLV over 146 -110 (2)
UNLV at 11-7 and 9-8 ats scoring 77.3 ppg giving up 66.5 ppg for a diff of 10.8
UT.ST at 11-6 and 6-8 ats scoring 73.1 ppg giving up 69.6 ppg for a diff of 3.5
If you add the off + Def averages up you get 143.25. They bumped it up expecting more scoring. I expect it to. Under the new UNLV coach they have score 86 and a 100 in their two for a 93 ppg game and have given up 64 and 74 for a average of 69 ppg. The two game total under the interim coach is at 162. UNLV are 6-11 on the o/u for the season. A lot was expected out of them and they just weren't getting it done. Now the players have turned it loose and are playing with a greater urgency. You see if they do well now then of course it was the coaches fault. This is a road game so I don't expect them to score near 93 ppg. I do expect them to get in the 70's though. I also expect Utah St to do well as UNLV defense is very questionable at times. Utah St are 5-2 on the o/u at home.
Utah St have won two straight games scoring 175 points combined. (point is they won opening it up) Before that they lost 3 straight scoring 59, 61, and 67 ppg. (point is they lost)
Coach surely must realize that this team is doing better when they get up and down the court. With UNLV style of play their is no shot that appears to be a bad shot and hopefully there will be more possessions than expected if Utah runs with them.
#760 San Diego St -8 -110 (2)
Fresno at 12-6 and 6-7 ats scoring 75.7 ppg giving up 69.8 ppg for a diff of 5.9
SD.ST at 12-6 and 6-5-3 ats scoring 65.8 ppg giving up 60.1 ppg for a diff of 5.7
Line is begging for Fresno money imo. Surely SDS is not worth 8 points at home. Am I getting suckered in playing SDS? I'm not playing them because they are a house hold team(public). At least not in Indiana. I couldn't even name players on their team until I looked at this matchup. I wish my favorite poster Indiana would give me some insight on this team. He goes to most of their games and would know more than I could muster up here.
Strictly playing this game on the past results and success that SDS has had in this series. (plus it gives me some action while I'm looking at games for the next day)
Fresno State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego State (don't fare well)
Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego State (haven't covered much either)
Fresno State is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road (edge to me on them not covering ats) I do pay attention to these trends
San Diego State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Fresno State (good) they won the last 5 at home in this series by 11, 8, 22, 24, and 15)
Just comparing the two teams last couple of games against common opponents:
Fresno beat San Jose St by 7 at home and lost at Bosie St by 11.
SDS beat San Jose St by 15 at home and beat Bosie ST by 3 at Boise.
I think I like my chances that SDS can cover this spread at home in thisn game.
It scare me when I look back at some of SDS games and scores. They lost some games that were really surprising to me. Then again, I really don't know these teams and this conf very well.
I did read where SDS are 6th in points allowed (60.1) and 4th in fg% defense at 36.3%.
Fresno St has a player named Harris scoring 22.6 ppg in conf play. Coach Fischer said he knows they can't stop him from getting his points. They sure can make it harder for him to get them. I like that and In also like how this very young SDS team has started to come around.
Once again Indiana, feel free to chime in.
Good luck everyone
