Got this from somewhere else. A good preview of your tourney teams.
Kentucky: There only weakness might be youth, and every team that wins this thing has that ONE game every year that they ALMOST lose. They are beatable ATS - they failed to cover five straight games in SEC play, most all by just a bucket or two.
Arizona: The only teams that have either beaten them or given them close games are team that have been big and been successful slowing the game down. Every team that's played up-tempo or even tried has been destroyed. This goes back more than this season - as they eventually lost last year to Wisconsin - a big/slow team that can play defense.
Wisconsin: Kaminsky didn't play in their loss to Rutgers - they were only 8-11 ATS in Conference play. It's very tough for the Badgers to cover double-digit numbers against reasonable teams simply because their style is so slow they rarely score 70 points - although headed in the Michigan State game they DID score 70 four of five games. They're exactly the type of team that could challenge the Wildcats - both the Arizona ones and the Kentucky ones.
Virginia:The exact opposite of Arizona - they'll struggle with teams that can speed them up - losing only to Duke, L'ville, an and the Tar Heels - all quick teams. In their three losses - Gill got to the line 6 or less times - and even in their three point win over V-Tech he played with four fouls. Stop him -stop Virginia. Anderson has played 26 minutes in two games since February 7th. Game shape - perhaps not -see quick team beats UVA.
Villanova: Probably the team in the Tournament that scores the highest percentage of their points from behind the arc - over 35%. They've covered ATS 13 of the last 15 games - a team that's just not going to make mistakes and beat themselves - almost all the core players from last years' team are back and their defense has less holes than last year. The only way they get beat is to miss their shots.
Gonzaga: Behind Kentucky the biggest team in the Tournament (not THAT much bigger than Wisconsin) - perhaps a big weakness is not getting to the FT line - so maybe softer than we think - in their loss to BYU they only took 21 free throws on 41 "inside" shot attempts. VERY similar numbers in their loss to Arizona. In fact, knocked out last season by Arizona - so if they struggle it will be against a team that has bigs and can shoot over their interior defense (Wisconsin - theme here).
Duke: For all the "talk" this season about Duke - let's not forget they're one of the youngest teams in the nation. Perhaps a play-on team early since Cook and Coach K clearly remember losing in the first round (essentially at home) to Mercer last season. A great play-on team in the middle rounds perhaps since they were an underdog four times this season and won (SU) all four games.
Utah: Six of their seven losses this season were on the road - perhaps one of the biggest HC advantages in CBB. Since they won't be playing in SLC - look for them to struggle against a quick team - every one of their losses, and they caome line losing five of the last eight - was to a team that sped them up. Delon Wright has played a TON of minutes down the stretch - and the MORE points he scores the WORSE Utah seems to do. He needs help he doesn't have and Poeltl is only a Freshman. Early exit, perhaps.
Oklahoma: The Sooners failed to cover seven of the last eight games they've played this season. They're at their best on 3+ days rest - going 12-4 SU - and that's clearly evidenced by their short bench - one of the shortest in the nation, not just the Tournament. Look for an early win and an auto-fade ATS in the second round.
Notre Dame: The Irish's stock has probably never been higher, after beating Duke and the Heels very publicly and in North Carolina to boot. They're actually 7-2 SU on the road - which is surprising because they didn't even PLAY a road game until Conference play started. They're not going to beat themselves - they've played six games on 0/1 days rest and won five of them. A team that's built for the long haul - as much as they will be expensive early.
Kansas: Super inexperienced - everywhere - but especially in the back court. A sold back court can carry a team a long ways - go all the way back to Dwyane Wade. They'll play quick but seemed to struggle down the stretch with teams that would run with them. All six regular season losses were on the road and that season ending loss "almost home" to ISU could be the beginning of the end here. With plenty of rest they're great - but with 0/1 day off they've lost four times. Another team that may do well and then get bounced.
Northern Iowa: A team that's just never going to beat themselves and is super-experienced. They'll milk the clock and shoot threes - but they hit almost 40% of them as a team. A much better than average defense that only lost three times this season, all to quick teams. 6-0 in neutral site games. Their weakness is length - so against a team that'll pound it inside all night and can defend the perimeter they may struggle - otherwise - a super solid bet.
Iowa State: The public team everyone loves to take "overs" with simply because they shoot well and play fast. But, in neutral site games they've play to one over and six unders. Big weakness is offensive rebounding, in part due to missed three's (nobody rebounds them well) and their size. Very suspect defense and a team that really struggles against the slower/less fluid teams. Could be a sleeper team. Won last years' Conference tournament and won a couple before losing to UConn (everyone did) as they're much more seasoned TY.
Baylor: The Bears didn't have any really bad losses this season - and you usually know what you're getting with them. A tremendous offensive rebounding team that defends the perimeter extremely well. Losing early in the B-12 Tournament with extra rest should serve them well - they're 14-3 with 3+ days rest. They've won at least two post-season games for three straight years - they're undoing could come at the hands of a smaller school that'll run them into the ground and has some size - someone like perhaps Iona.
Witchita State: An uber-public team that's probably not as solid as they were the last couple of years. Their issue is length. they're a small team whose four losses all came to bigger teams - Utah, Illinois State, G-Wash, and of course Northern Iowa - a lot of ways to score and not one-dimensional - 72% of their road games went over - played a great non-conference schedule. Certainly not a dark horse - but perhaps under valued after losing to Illinois State. The early MVC Tournament and exit give them (and NI) tons of rest.
North Carolina: They did what may sharps expected them to do, which was lose to Notre Dame. Any team that plays that fast and has to play four straight days is going to struggle. Their biggest Achilles may be that they don't shoot well (or much) from behind the arc. You can't win one dimensional forever. A great offensive rebounding team - will get beat by a bigger team that gets Paige in foul trouble. Like several other teams - the more Paige scores the worse for the Heels. Look at the "other" mathcups for this team.
Michigan State: I told out long term clients we couldn't fade Tom Izzo this time of year down the stretch and in the B-10 Tournament - but failed to bet ON them. The problem there is jumping back ON them too late when they've over valued. I really wonder if just making the Tournament to keep their streak alive takes it's toll - especially seeing as how playing Wisconsin on Sunday also gives them less rest. Huge factor there.
Louisville: Their offensive struggles have been well documented, and their defensive prowess has too, so look at "other" stuff. Plenty of rest and a coach you really don't want to bet against too often. ALWAYS paying a premium for this team as evidenced by their 22-4 record SU as a favorite, yet 9-16-1 ATS in those games. Will get beat by a team that can protect the ball (experienced) and has the length to keep Harrell at bay.
Texas: Probably the best team they've brought to the Dance in some time - but a ton of this is coaching and preparation and that's not something I trust Rick Barnes with. If I did he'd still be in Clemson. They cannot be beat inside - but they can be beaten by teams that shoot over their defense/length. See Iowa State three times. Probably a better team than their record indicates - but will lose to the shooting team with length. Maybe a team like UCLA if UCLA is rested.
Ohio State: All year long we've faded them simply because they are soft. They just don't get to the free throw line and played a horrible non-conference schedule. They didn't really have a signature win all year and only played ten road games (4-6) all season. A dangerous team (ATS) against inferior competition but as soon as they get matched up against a team with substance they'll get embarrassed, if not sooner.
Wyoming: A very dangerous team for anyone to have to play. A super-slow team that's just NEVER going to shoot with more than 10 seconds on the shot clock. They struggled with some injuries/suspensions late in the regular season, but are healthy. They've got experience and length - so playing quick-turnaround games is no problem for them given that slow pace. They can be beaten on the road - and this is rare air for them - but they're SMART and on borrowed time - which is always a dangerous team to play.
Harvard: A well-coached team with Tommy Amaker, but they just are not as good as they've been in recent history. Defensively they may be better but they don't have the shooters/offense. I'd look hard at an under early. What they'll do is try and score inside, and they get to the line - but their season-long FG% is only 45 %. Not good enough. They haven't traveled out of their little corner of the world since going to Arizona over the Holidays. They won't beat themselves but don't have the talent to beat many other teams.
Albany: Nice team that gets to the FT line a ton - but the American East Conference provides little competition nor did they play anyone good in the non-conference schedule. They play v-e-r-y slow - and don't defend the perimeter all that well. Could, because they play slow - get an ATS win early especially if they play another slow-paced team. They've got some experience - beat Mt. St. Mary's to get in LY and played Florida tough before losing.
Belmont: The team everyone hates to play. They'll run up and down the court and fire three's til there are no more basketballs left. They did win the OVC - but the Tournament was essentially at home. Over looked fact - their three losses before Conference play to E'ville, Wright State, and VCU where when Craig Bradshaw did not play. A tough out for almost anyone - especially a slow down team.
Coastal Carolina: A very sound and well-coached team that played UCLA and Mississippi tough on the road - so don't over look the third placed team in the Big South. They'll play a mediocre pace and don't have much size - but won't beat themselves. They'll get to the free throw line and defend the perimeter - so they'll eventually lose to a team that just towers over them and runs them into the ground - but ATS in an early game I wouldn't bet against them.
Northeastern: A very dangerous team that won at Florida State and at Richmond, and lost in OT to St. Marys - so don't fade these kids. Biggest shortcoming is the lack of depth - but in one game anything is possible. They can get sloppy with the ball - so an unfavorable matchup would be against a pressure defense that's quick, like L'ville. But, they can shoot/score with anyone in the country.
Eastern Washington: I'm still mad at them for covering on a missed FT offensive rebound against Idaho! They cannot play ANY defense.The Big Sky Conference is just not very good - but they can shoot - they won't do well against a team that WANTS to play defense and take them seriously - but against some teams that don't - they may give them trouble - as they did in Bloomington when the beat Indiana (who refuses to play defense) outright.
Valpo: This is yet another team not to underestimate. They can play defense and have some size. The issue I might have trying to back them is that they just didn't play anyone, and the Horizon League wasn't very good this season. Even Cleveland State had their injuries. They are, if nothing else, consistent. They didn't make this tournament last season, but two years ago were beaten by Michigan State in the first round - but not badly.
Lafayette: If only the Leopards (yes) could play defense. They're big, they're experienced, and they can score. And they've got some size. They are the second bets three point shooting team in the nation, and take a lot of them, not getting to the line much - which is a shame because they shoot well from the stripe when they do. Bear in mind they were a .500 (fourth place) team in the Patriot league and were simply destroyed by the only two teams they played - Kansas and West Virginia. I don't think whoever they play they can put out a total too big.
Texas Southern: The best team in the worst Conference.They have a ton of experience and play THE best non-conference schedule in the nation - so it's no surprise they're here. They actually beat Michigan State and Kansas State, score inside and get to the line a TON. And they're very well coached by Mike Davis - the same one that was at Indiana and unceremoniously dumped by UAB. Don't take them lightly.
New Mexico State: A huge team that does well in a terrible (WAC) Conference. They may fare well against a slower team that just wants to play inside - but against an athletic team with any size they may be in trouble. They DID play some excellent teams in the non-conference schedule - but allowing Wyoming 75 points is a red flag. They played Baylor and Colorado State pretty tough - and they took SDSU to overtime in the Tournament last season. They potential is there.
UC Irvine: Another dangerous team with a ton of size and even more experience. They'll play super-solid defense and played Oregon and St. Marys to the bitter end. My biggest issue with them is for all the length they have they don't get to the free throw line much - but, after losing last season's Conference Tournament to Cal Poly they did get some experience playing at SMU - so this will be a hard team to fade, and I will look hard an any under they throw out.
SMU: A team I have tried to fade, and did against UConn, forever. The just get it done and Larry Brown is still a very good coach. I do wonder if they didn't expend too much energy winning their Conference Tournament and also playing on Sunday - hence less rest. I go back to the fact that they haven't really beaten elite teams - and were crushed by Gonzaga and lost to Indiana and Arkansas, two teams that can't play any defense. What that does tell me is that is exactly the type of team that will give them trouble.
Georgia State: Too much was made of this team when Kevin Ware transferred in from L'ville - hence the expectations were too high. The fact that they only scored 38 points on Sunday against Georgia Southern is the red flag. They've got experience, but not a lot of size - they're not going to overwhelm anyone - most of their losses have been to teams that run - which makes sense.
LSU: People are higher on this team than I am. Let's not forget how bad the SEC really is this season. This is a team that lost to Auburn, twice, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Tennessee (badly) at home. Late. They play defense, but they're super young and super short off the bench. They're not a team that's going to come back from deficits - a slow team that can shoot over them well trouble them. If Martin or Mickey get into any kind of foul trouble - LSU is IN trouble.
Oregon: I can't ever bet against a well-coached team, and Dana Altman is a great coach. They're perhaps under valued by some because people remember what they see last and that was the ass-kicking by Arizona. However, aside from a loss at UCLA the Ducks haven't lost to anyone BUT Arizona since January 18th. They're small, but they can shoot - but don't get inside enough. Biggest drawback here is that they are not a great ATS road team (5-4) and didn't play many. Because of a softer schedule and the Pac-12 being down - Oregon's defense will let them down - best bet may be an over.
North Dakota State: Well, about here is where they were announcing brackets. So, I do know they play Gonzaga. Last years' NDSU team was very good - now they're here by default, winning the Summit League. They lost a ton from last year. They'll play slow and shoot three's - but they won't make many against Gonzaga. The total might be too high - and this could be a great 1H bet on Gonzaga. In tournaments if and when teams get big leads they rest for the next game.
Georgia: They're finally healthy and have no suspensions - but they totally let me down against Arkansas. Great defense but a suspect offense at times - even against the Hogs who can't PLAY defense. Almost every team they lost to was an up tempo team. They'll get to the line a lot, but even last year were run out of the post-season by La Tech, another quick team. So, against Michigan State they may have a chance.
Providence: I've been high on them all season. They play in a very tough conference and played a very good non-conference schedule that included Kentucky - so they won't be fazed. They're big, experienced, play a great pace, get to the line a lot - and they almost beat North Carolina in the first round last year. They're 4-0 ATS in neutral site games this season and they're a 62% ATS team this season.
NC State: One of my least favorite big-game coaches. But, playing well down the stretch, beating L'ville and North Carolina on the road. Very balanced scoring - so can match up with anyone. As a much less experienced team last year they beat Xavier badly and almost beat St. Louis in the Tournament. Losing badly and early to Duke might serve them well. Both a wake up call and something to build on, and rest. They're 8-2 on 3+ days rest.
San Diego State: Hard to say how they react to losing to Wyoming. Aztecs one of the best defensive teams in the nation and perhaps one of the worst offenses in the Tournament. Most people know this, so often times their totals are TOO low. They don't get to the line and are not very good when they do. They have to win playing defense. This is a team that can easily get beaten by a diverse offensive teams (see Florida Gulf Coast) and can lose focus easily. A team like St. Johns that has a ton of experience and plays some sick defensive teams (Villanova, Butler, G-Town) might give them trouble, especially with their Seniors.
St. Johns: These guys more or less re-dedicated themselves at the beginning of the season as a team that had all been together under Lavin for four years. The one thing that always scares me about St. Johns is that they can be a horrible rebounding team, and not making the first shot against SDSU could be trouble. Lost first post-season game to Robert Morris last season so they don't have a lot of "confidence" things to draw on. This game against SDSU may be the least pretty to watch - and the more I talk this through the more I think SDSU may win this game.
Butler: People thought when Brad Stevens left that the program would fall apart, but that hasn't been the case. People thought when they left the Horizon for the A-10 they'd fall apart. People thought when they left the A-10 for the Big East they'd fall apart. None of the above were true. What does concern me is their relatively short bench and especially against teams that will run. That would make a ton of sense, since most of their losses were to 'Nova, Xavier, Indiana, and Oklahoma, all teams that run. Texas doesn't.
Buffalo: Buffalo is another school that's very well coached - Bobby Hurley - the same on who played four years (remember when that actually happened) under Coach K. They played Kentucky AND Wisconsin before the MAC season started, so playing ANYONE is not going to be intimidating. They had one bad loss at Ohio. They don't have the experience they had last season, but they've got that one more year of good coaching. They get inside and to the line - held Kentucky to 71 points - and another team that won't beat themselves.
Oklahoma State: Tough ending for their season, and down the stretch, so it may be a tough team to bet ON. The only team they've beaten in the last month is TCU. They're a terrible rebounding team at both ends of the floor. They can play defense, but live and seem to die by the three on offense. I'd have to think that a team that I don't think should be here can be beaten by Dana Altman and the Ducks. Perhaps a bad matchup for them, and maybe the committee knows that.
Wofford: The Terriers are a slow and tiny team that just doesn't make mistakes. Although the SoCon isn't very good, Wofford played Duke and West Virginia, and beat Sam Houston State, NC State, and Iona. Don't sleep on them. As a less experience team they played Michigan in Milwaukee last year (in the Tournament) and only let the much more powerful Spartans put up 57. Hard not to like an under in one of their games.
West Virginia: Obviously a very well coached team with Huggins whose record may not reflect how good they really are. Playing in the Big-12 - since the beginning of February the worst team they've played was K-State. What's tended to happen is that they've lost to the running teams (like they are) with just more talent, really. If they get matched up against a team that doesn't want to run and can't protect the ball - they'll advance. Buffalo is not one of those teams, and nearly every year a #12 seed beats a #5 seed. IMO WVU is good, but doesn't deserve to be a #5 seed.
Georgetown: My problem with the Hoyas is "lately". Since they beat Villanova in the middle of January they really haven't had a great win. Yes, they've beaten Butler, but that's a very favorable matchup for them. It's the running teams they've had trouble with, and they lost to Kansas and Wisconsin earlier in the year. Kansas because they run and Wisconsin because the Badgers are just that much more talented. That's why EWU could well give them a game.
Xavier:The Musketeers are great at home (13-2) and not so much away from Cincinnati (5-7). Clearly they're ranked where they are because of their Conference/schedule, but I don't see the marquee wins other than beating G-Town twice, who I just said (the Hoyas) don't like running teams so that's just a great matchup for the Musketeers. For a big team, their interior defense isn't as solid as you'd expect. And since Tu Holloway left, their post season play hasn't been that stellar. They'll beat those teams that want to bump and grind - they'll struggle against the athletic teams that can shoot.
Davidson: No surprise who they are or what they do. Another team like Butler that people wrote off when they went to the A-10 - and of course promptly ran through it. They'll score, in a given game, 40% of their points from behind the arc, and for a smaller team, they defend the arc pretty well. They were probably simply outclassed and outcoached by VCU and Shaka Smart - but that may give us more value. They don't turn the ball over as you'd think an up-tempo team might - in fact they are the second best team in the NCAA at protecting the ball. Richmond shut them down -the Spiders have the best three point defense in the Conference. Iowa does, too.
Iowa: As I just said, a great defensive team with a ton of size and experience, but will the size matter on defense if Davidson just shoots over them - the size may matter much more on offense, which leads me to think this game is even higher scoring than people think. Iowa gets to the line a ton and shoot well over 72%. Big red flag for me is that Iowa is now 0-4 this season in neutral site games. The problem for Iowa is a classic one - they just don't see team like Davidson in Conference play.
Cincinnati: As most know, I consider them a weaker version of Louisville, a team that can play defense and has trouble scoring. So the Bearcats lose to Uconn who essentially gets hammered by SMU and they're in. They did beat the Mustangs twice - but IMO it's their defense that does that. Same reason the beat San Diego State early in the season. But, "lately" the best team they beat was Tulsa. They turn the ball over a ton - so a pressure defense will disrupt them. They are what they are, but the one glaring thing I did see is that they're 9-3 on 1/2 days rest, so if they can get by the first round they may be a great second round bet.
Purdue: Clearly their early season wins over NC State and BYU, coupled with their SOS, are what got them here. Looking at their schedule, I don't see the big Conference win(s). Late in the season they did go on a winning run, but beat Rutgers twice, Northwestern, and Illinois (at home). But, over the course of the season they are 20-9-1 ATS. They're young and have zero post season experience. Because of their sheer length they do have a great interior defense, so the first look at their game with Cincinnati has under written on it, IMO. The issue with unders in this tournament is that if the game is at all close, which more of them are than aren't, there's the late free throws. In these games, this one for example, 1H unders are a great bet. Feeling out process is lengthy, and especially with one or both team not being very experienced.
UCLA-People think they shouldn't be here, but IMO this matchup with SMU is a good one for them. For one, SMU has very little rest playing Sunday, and the teams that play SMU tough are exactly like UCLA. The Bruins are big and the run. With that in mind, they're young and short off the bench - so one or two and done for them, perhaps. Interesting fact here is that the Bruins are 17-2 SU as a favorite and 3-11 (SU) as an underdog.
UAB: One of my favorite teams to bet on the second half of the season. They're super young but just got better and better as the season went along - probably due in large part to the fact that they played every good team there was before C-USA play started. They're fairly big and they WILL play inside - the ONLY downside to the Blazers is their youth. They're actually bigger than Iowa State - so if ISU isn't making their outside shots, UAB WILL run and can defend the perimeter. This game could be much closer than a #3 and #14 seed would lead you to believe.
Kentucky: There only weakness might be youth, and every team that wins this thing has that ONE game every year that they ALMOST lose. They are beatable ATS - they failed to cover five straight games in SEC play, most all by just a bucket or two.
Arizona: The only teams that have either beaten them or given them close games are team that have been big and been successful slowing the game down. Every team that's played up-tempo or even tried has been destroyed. This goes back more than this season - as they eventually lost last year to Wisconsin - a big/slow team that can play defense.
Wisconsin: Kaminsky didn't play in their loss to Rutgers - they were only 8-11 ATS in Conference play. It's very tough for the Badgers to cover double-digit numbers against reasonable teams simply because their style is so slow they rarely score 70 points - although headed in the Michigan State game they DID score 70 four of five games. They're exactly the type of team that could challenge the Wildcats - both the Arizona ones and the Kentucky ones.
Virginia:The exact opposite of Arizona - they'll struggle with teams that can speed them up - losing only to Duke, L'ville, an and the Tar Heels - all quick teams. In their three losses - Gill got to the line 6 or less times - and even in their three point win over V-Tech he played with four fouls. Stop him -stop Virginia. Anderson has played 26 minutes in two games since February 7th. Game shape - perhaps not -see quick team beats UVA.
Villanova: Probably the team in the Tournament that scores the highest percentage of their points from behind the arc - over 35%. They've covered ATS 13 of the last 15 games - a team that's just not going to make mistakes and beat themselves - almost all the core players from last years' team are back and their defense has less holes than last year. The only way they get beat is to miss their shots.
Gonzaga: Behind Kentucky the biggest team in the Tournament (not THAT much bigger than Wisconsin) - perhaps a big weakness is not getting to the FT line - so maybe softer than we think - in their loss to BYU they only took 21 free throws on 41 "inside" shot attempts. VERY similar numbers in their loss to Arizona. In fact, knocked out last season by Arizona - so if they struggle it will be against a team that has bigs and can shoot over their interior defense (Wisconsin - theme here).
Duke: For all the "talk" this season about Duke - let's not forget they're one of the youngest teams in the nation. Perhaps a play-on team early since Cook and Coach K clearly remember losing in the first round (essentially at home) to Mercer last season. A great play-on team in the middle rounds perhaps since they were an underdog four times this season and won (SU) all four games.
Utah: Six of their seven losses this season were on the road - perhaps one of the biggest HC advantages in CBB. Since they won't be playing in SLC - look for them to struggle against a quick team - every one of their losses, and they caome line losing five of the last eight - was to a team that sped them up. Delon Wright has played a TON of minutes down the stretch - and the MORE points he scores the WORSE Utah seems to do. He needs help he doesn't have and Poeltl is only a Freshman. Early exit, perhaps.
Oklahoma: The Sooners failed to cover seven of the last eight games they've played this season. They're at their best on 3+ days rest - going 12-4 SU - and that's clearly evidenced by their short bench - one of the shortest in the nation, not just the Tournament. Look for an early win and an auto-fade ATS in the second round.
Notre Dame: The Irish's stock has probably never been higher, after beating Duke and the Heels very publicly and in North Carolina to boot. They're actually 7-2 SU on the road - which is surprising because they didn't even PLAY a road game until Conference play started. They're not going to beat themselves - they've played six games on 0/1 days rest and won five of them. A team that's built for the long haul - as much as they will be expensive early.
Kansas: Super inexperienced - everywhere - but especially in the back court. A sold back court can carry a team a long ways - go all the way back to Dwyane Wade. They'll play quick but seemed to struggle down the stretch with teams that would run with them. All six regular season losses were on the road and that season ending loss "almost home" to ISU could be the beginning of the end here. With plenty of rest they're great - but with 0/1 day off they've lost four times. Another team that may do well and then get bounced.
Northern Iowa: A team that's just never going to beat themselves and is super-experienced. They'll milk the clock and shoot threes - but they hit almost 40% of them as a team. A much better than average defense that only lost three times this season, all to quick teams. 6-0 in neutral site games. Their weakness is length - so against a team that'll pound it inside all night and can defend the perimeter they may struggle - otherwise - a super solid bet.
Iowa State: The public team everyone loves to take "overs" with simply because they shoot well and play fast. But, in neutral site games they've play to one over and six unders. Big weakness is offensive rebounding, in part due to missed three's (nobody rebounds them well) and their size. Very suspect defense and a team that really struggles against the slower/less fluid teams. Could be a sleeper team. Won last years' Conference tournament and won a couple before losing to UConn (everyone did) as they're much more seasoned TY.
Baylor: The Bears didn't have any really bad losses this season - and you usually know what you're getting with them. A tremendous offensive rebounding team that defends the perimeter extremely well. Losing early in the B-12 Tournament with extra rest should serve them well - they're 14-3 with 3+ days rest. They've won at least two post-season games for three straight years - they're undoing could come at the hands of a smaller school that'll run them into the ground and has some size - someone like perhaps Iona.
Witchita State: An uber-public team that's probably not as solid as they were the last couple of years. Their issue is length. they're a small team whose four losses all came to bigger teams - Utah, Illinois State, G-Wash, and of course Northern Iowa - a lot of ways to score and not one-dimensional - 72% of their road games went over - played a great non-conference schedule. Certainly not a dark horse - but perhaps under valued after losing to Illinois State. The early MVC Tournament and exit give them (and NI) tons of rest.
North Carolina: They did what may sharps expected them to do, which was lose to Notre Dame. Any team that plays that fast and has to play four straight days is going to struggle. Their biggest Achilles may be that they don't shoot well (or much) from behind the arc. You can't win one dimensional forever. A great offensive rebounding team - will get beat by a bigger team that gets Paige in foul trouble. Like several other teams - the more Paige scores the worse for the Heels. Look at the "other" mathcups for this team.
Michigan State: I told out long term clients we couldn't fade Tom Izzo this time of year down the stretch and in the B-10 Tournament - but failed to bet ON them. The problem there is jumping back ON them too late when they've over valued. I really wonder if just making the Tournament to keep their streak alive takes it's toll - especially seeing as how playing Wisconsin on Sunday also gives them less rest. Huge factor there.
Louisville: Their offensive struggles have been well documented, and their defensive prowess has too, so look at "other" stuff. Plenty of rest and a coach you really don't want to bet against too often. ALWAYS paying a premium for this team as evidenced by their 22-4 record SU as a favorite, yet 9-16-1 ATS in those games. Will get beat by a team that can protect the ball (experienced) and has the length to keep Harrell at bay.
Texas: Probably the best team they've brought to the Dance in some time - but a ton of this is coaching and preparation and that's not something I trust Rick Barnes with. If I did he'd still be in Clemson. They cannot be beat inside - but they can be beaten by teams that shoot over their defense/length. See Iowa State three times. Probably a better team than their record indicates - but will lose to the shooting team with length. Maybe a team like UCLA if UCLA is rested.
Ohio State: All year long we've faded them simply because they are soft. They just don't get to the free throw line and played a horrible non-conference schedule. They didn't really have a signature win all year and only played ten road games (4-6) all season. A dangerous team (ATS) against inferior competition but as soon as they get matched up against a team with substance they'll get embarrassed, if not sooner.
Wyoming: A very dangerous team for anyone to have to play. A super-slow team that's just NEVER going to shoot with more than 10 seconds on the shot clock. They struggled with some injuries/suspensions late in the regular season, but are healthy. They've got experience and length - so playing quick-turnaround games is no problem for them given that slow pace. They can be beaten on the road - and this is rare air for them - but they're SMART and on borrowed time - which is always a dangerous team to play.
Harvard: A well-coached team with Tommy Amaker, but they just are not as good as they've been in recent history. Defensively they may be better but they don't have the shooters/offense. I'd look hard at an under early. What they'll do is try and score inside, and they get to the line - but their season-long FG% is only 45 %. Not good enough. They haven't traveled out of their little corner of the world since going to Arizona over the Holidays. They won't beat themselves but don't have the talent to beat many other teams.
Albany: Nice team that gets to the FT line a ton - but the American East Conference provides little competition nor did they play anyone good in the non-conference schedule. They play v-e-r-y slow - and don't defend the perimeter all that well. Could, because they play slow - get an ATS win early especially if they play another slow-paced team. They've got some experience - beat Mt. St. Mary's to get in LY and played Florida tough before losing.
Belmont: The team everyone hates to play. They'll run up and down the court and fire three's til there are no more basketballs left. They did win the OVC - but the Tournament was essentially at home. Over looked fact - their three losses before Conference play to E'ville, Wright State, and VCU where when Craig Bradshaw did not play. A tough out for almost anyone - especially a slow down team.
Coastal Carolina: A very sound and well-coached team that played UCLA and Mississippi tough on the road - so don't over look the third placed team in the Big South. They'll play a mediocre pace and don't have much size - but won't beat themselves. They'll get to the free throw line and defend the perimeter - so they'll eventually lose to a team that just towers over them and runs them into the ground - but ATS in an early game I wouldn't bet against them.
Northeastern: A very dangerous team that won at Florida State and at Richmond, and lost in OT to St. Marys - so don't fade these kids. Biggest shortcoming is the lack of depth - but in one game anything is possible. They can get sloppy with the ball - so an unfavorable matchup would be against a pressure defense that's quick, like L'ville. But, they can shoot/score with anyone in the country.
Eastern Washington: I'm still mad at them for covering on a missed FT offensive rebound against Idaho! They cannot play ANY defense.The Big Sky Conference is just not very good - but they can shoot - they won't do well against a team that WANTS to play defense and take them seriously - but against some teams that don't - they may give them trouble - as they did in Bloomington when the beat Indiana (who refuses to play defense) outright.
Valpo: This is yet another team not to underestimate. They can play defense and have some size. The issue I might have trying to back them is that they just didn't play anyone, and the Horizon League wasn't very good this season. Even Cleveland State had their injuries. They are, if nothing else, consistent. They didn't make this tournament last season, but two years ago were beaten by Michigan State in the first round - but not badly.
Lafayette: If only the Leopards (yes) could play defense. They're big, they're experienced, and they can score. And they've got some size. They are the second bets three point shooting team in the nation, and take a lot of them, not getting to the line much - which is a shame because they shoot well from the stripe when they do. Bear in mind they were a .500 (fourth place) team in the Patriot league and were simply destroyed by the only two teams they played - Kansas and West Virginia. I don't think whoever they play they can put out a total too big.
Texas Southern: The best team in the worst Conference.They have a ton of experience and play THE best non-conference schedule in the nation - so it's no surprise they're here. They actually beat Michigan State and Kansas State, score inside and get to the line a TON. And they're very well coached by Mike Davis - the same one that was at Indiana and unceremoniously dumped by UAB. Don't take them lightly.
New Mexico State: A huge team that does well in a terrible (WAC) Conference. They may fare well against a slower team that just wants to play inside - but against an athletic team with any size they may be in trouble. They DID play some excellent teams in the non-conference schedule - but allowing Wyoming 75 points is a red flag. They played Baylor and Colorado State pretty tough - and they took SDSU to overtime in the Tournament last season. They potential is there.
UC Irvine: Another dangerous team with a ton of size and even more experience. They'll play super-solid defense and played Oregon and St. Marys to the bitter end. My biggest issue with them is for all the length they have they don't get to the free throw line much - but, after losing last season's Conference Tournament to Cal Poly they did get some experience playing at SMU - so this will be a hard team to fade, and I will look hard an any under they throw out.
SMU: A team I have tried to fade, and did against UConn, forever. The just get it done and Larry Brown is still a very good coach. I do wonder if they didn't expend too much energy winning their Conference Tournament and also playing on Sunday - hence less rest. I go back to the fact that they haven't really beaten elite teams - and were crushed by Gonzaga and lost to Indiana and Arkansas, two teams that can't play any defense. What that does tell me is that is exactly the type of team that will give them trouble.
Georgia State: Too much was made of this team when Kevin Ware transferred in from L'ville - hence the expectations were too high. The fact that they only scored 38 points on Sunday against Georgia Southern is the red flag. They've got experience, but not a lot of size - they're not going to overwhelm anyone - most of their losses have been to teams that run - which makes sense.
LSU: People are higher on this team than I am. Let's not forget how bad the SEC really is this season. This is a team that lost to Auburn, twice, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Tennessee (badly) at home. Late. They play defense, but they're super young and super short off the bench. They're not a team that's going to come back from deficits - a slow team that can shoot over them well trouble them. If Martin or Mickey get into any kind of foul trouble - LSU is IN trouble.
Oregon: I can't ever bet against a well-coached team, and Dana Altman is a great coach. They're perhaps under valued by some because people remember what they see last and that was the ass-kicking by Arizona. However, aside from a loss at UCLA the Ducks haven't lost to anyone BUT Arizona since January 18th. They're small, but they can shoot - but don't get inside enough. Biggest drawback here is that they are not a great ATS road team (5-4) and didn't play many. Because of a softer schedule and the Pac-12 being down - Oregon's defense will let them down - best bet may be an over.
North Dakota State: Well, about here is where they were announcing brackets. So, I do know they play Gonzaga. Last years' NDSU team was very good - now they're here by default, winning the Summit League. They lost a ton from last year. They'll play slow and shoot three's - but they won't make many against Gonzaga. The total might be too high - and this could be a great 1H bet on Gonzaga. In tournaments if and when teams get big leads they rest for the next game.
Georgia: They're finally healthy and have no suspensions - but they totally let me down against Arkansas. Great defense but a suspect offense at times - even against the Hogs who can't PLAY defense. Almost every team they lost to was an up tempo team. They'll get to the line a lot, but even last year were run out of the post-season by La Tech, another quick team. So, against Michigan State they may have a chance.
Providence: I've been high on them all season. They play in a very tough conference and played a very good non-conference schedule that included Kentucky - so they won't be fazed. They're big, experienced, play a great pace, get to the line a lot - and they almost beat North Carolina in the first round last year. They're 4-0 ATS in neutral site games this season and they're a 62% ATS team this season.
NC State: One of my least favorite big-game coaches. But, playing well down the stretch, beating L'ville and North Carolina on the road. Very balanced scoring - so can match up with anyone. As a much less experienced team last year they beat Xavier badly and almost beat St. Louis in the Tournament. Losing badly and early to Duke might serve them well. Both a wake up call and something to build on, and rest. They're 8-2 on 3+ days rest.
San Diego State: Hard to say how they react to losing to Wyoming. Aztecs one of the best defensive teams in the nation and perhaps one of the worst offenses in the Tournament. Most people know this, so often times their totals are TOO low. They don't get to the line and are not very good when they do. They have to win playing defense. This is a team that can easily get beaten by a diverse offensive teams (see Florida Gulf Coast) and can lose focus easily. A team like St. Johns that has a ton of experience and plays some sick defensive teams (Villanova, Butler, G-Town) might give them trouble, especially with their Seniors.
St. Johns: These guys more or less re-dedicated themselves at the beginning of the season as a team that had all been together under Lavin for four years. The one thing that always scares me about St. Johns is that they can be a horrible rebounding team, and not making the first shot against SDSU could be trouble. Lost first post-season game to Robert Morris last season so they don't have a lot of "confidence" things to draw on. This game against SDSU may be the least pretty to watch - and the more I talk this through the more I think SDSU may win this game.
Butler: People thought when Brad Stevens left that the program would fall apart, but that hasn't been the case. People thought when they left the Horizon for the A-10 they'd fall apart. People thought when they left the A-10 for the Big East they'd fall apart. None of the above were true. What does concern me is their relatively short bench and especially against teams that will run. That would make a ton of sense, since most of their losses were to 'Nova, Xavier, Indiana, and Oklahoma, all teams that run. Texas doesn't.
Buffalo: Buffalo is another school that's very well coached - Bobby Hurley - the same on who played four years (remember when that actually happened) under Coach K. They played Kentucky AND Wisconsin before the MAC season started, so playing ANYONE is not going to be intimidating. They had one bad loss at Ohio. They don't have the experience they had last season, but they've got that one more year of good coaching. They get inside and to the line - held Kentucky to 71 points - and another team that won't beat themselves.
Oklahoma State: Tough ending for their season, and down the stretch, so it may be a tough team to bet ON. The only team they've beaten in the last month is TCU. They're a terrible rebounding team at both ends of the floor. They can play defense, but live and seem to die by the three on offense. I'd have to think that a team that I don't think should be here can be beaten by Dana Altman and the Ducks. Perhaps a bad matchup for them, and maybe the committee knows that.
Wofford: The Terriers are a slow and tiny team that just doesn't make mistakes. Although the SoCon isn't very good, Wofford played Duke and West Virginia, and beat Sam Houston State, NC State, and Iona. Don't sleep on them. As a less experience team they played Michigan in Milwaukee last year (in the Tournament) and only let the much more powerful Spartans put up 57. Hard not to like an under in one of their games.
West Virginia: Obviously a very well coached team with Huggins whose record may not reflect how good they really are. Playing in the Big-12 - since the beginning of February the worst team they've played was K-State. What's tended to happen is that they've lost to the running teams (like they are) with just more talent, really. If they get matched up against a team that doesn't want to run and can't protect the ball - they'll advance. Buffalo is not one of those teams, and nearly every year a #12 seed beats a #5 seed. IMO WVU is good, but doesn't deserve to be a #5 seed.
Georgetown: My problem with the Hoyas is "lately". Since they beat Villanova in the middle of January they really haven't had a great win. Yes, they've beaten Butler, but that's a very favorable matchup for them. It's the running teams they've had trouble with, and they lost to Kansas and Wisconsin earlier in the year. Kansas because they run and Wisconsin because the Badgers are just that much more talented. That's why EWU could well give them a game.
Xavier:The Musketeers are great at home (13-2) and not so much away from Cincinnati (5-7). Clearly they're ranked where they are because of their Conference/schedule, but I don't see the marquee wins other than beating G-Town twice, who I just said (the Hoyas) don't like running teams so that's just a great matchup for the Musketeers. For a big team, their interior defense isn't as solid as you'd expect. And since Tu Holloway left, their post season play hasn't been that stellar. They'll beat those teams that want to bump and grind - they'll struggle against the athletic teams that can shoot.
Davidson: No surprise who they are or what they do. Another team like Butler that people wrote off when they went to the A-10 - and of course promptly ran through it. They'll score, in a given game, 40% of their points from behind the arc, and for a smaller team, they defend the arc pretty well. They were probably simply outclassed and outcoached by VCU and Shaka Smart - but that may give us more value. They don't turn the ball over as you'd think an up-tempo team might - in fact they are the second best team in the NCAA at protecting the ball. Richmond shut them down -the Spiders have the best three point defense in the Conference. Iowa does, too.
Iowa: As I just said, a great defensive team with a ton of size and experience, but will the size matter on defense if Davidson just shoots over them - the size may matter much more on offense, which leads me to think this game is even higher scoring than people think. Iowa gets to the line a ton and shoot well over 72%. Big red flag for me is that Iowa is now 0-4 this season in neutral site games. The problem for Iowa is a classic one - they just don't see team like Davidson in Conference play.
Cincinnati: As most know, I consider them a weaker version of Louisville, a team that can play defense and has trouble scoring. So the Bearcats lose to Uconn who essentially gets hammered by SMU and they're in. They did beat the Mustangs twice - but IMO it's their defense that does that. Same reason the beat San Diego State early in the season. But, "lately" the best team they beat was Tulsa. They turn the ball over a ton - so a pressure defense will disrupt them. They are what they are, but the one glaring thing I did see is that they're 9-3 on 1/2 days rest, so if they can get by the first round they may be a great second round bet.
Purdue: Clearly their early season wins over NC State and BYU, coupled with their SOS, are what got them here. Looking at their schedule, I don't see the big Conference win(s). Late in the season they did go on a winning run, but beat Rutgers twice, Northwestern, and Illinois (at home). But, over the course of the season they are 20-9-1 ATS. They're young and have zero post season experience. Because of their sheer length they do have a great interior defense, so the first look at their game with Cincinnati has under written on it, IMO. The issue with unders in this tournament is that if the game is at all close, which more of them are than aren't, there's the late free throws. In these games, this one for example, 1H unders are a great bet. Feeling out process is lengthy, and especially with one or both team not being very experienced.
UCLA-People think they shouldn't be here, but IMO this matchup with SMU is a good one for them. For one, SMU has very little rest playing Sunday, and the teams that play SMU tough are exactly like UCLA. The Bruins are big and the run. With that in mind, they're young and short off the bench - so one or two and done for them, perhaps. Interesting fact here is that the Bruins are 17-2 SU as a favorite and 3-11 (SU) as an underdog.
UAB: One of my favorite teams to bet on the second half of the season. They're super young but just got better and better as the season went along - probably due in large part to the fact that they played every good team there was before C-USA play started. They're fairly big and they WILL play inside - the ONLY downside to the Blazers is their youth. They're actually bigger than Iowa State - so if ISU isn't making their outside shots, UAB WILL run and can defend the perimeter. This game could be much closer than a #3 and #14 seed would lead you to believe.
