ncaa tourney projections

[papicker]

Monday edition

hello all this will be kinda lengthy. i wont update this until the completion of wednesdays games again but i will come back to this post in order to do so. i will be picking a field of 65 bracketology style, no seedings just in or it. this is a little different, i will have a tangible result for each team to make the tournament if they havent already did so. an example would be:

georgetown is in if they beat st johns (not happening just an example!) im not guessing who wins the smaller conferences for those i will just put the winner of an already completed tournament or it will say "1" if only the conference tournament winner advances.

here we go with the one bid leagues:

america east -- 1
a-sun -- ETSU
big sky -- 1
big south -- radford
big west -- 1
colonial --1 (better win tonight vcu!)
cusa -- memphis (im gonna assume they win this, if they dont 2 bids)
horizon -- butler (cleveland st and butler if upset tomorrow)
ivy -- cornell
maac -- 1 (siena wont get at large)
mac -- 1
meac -- 1
mvc -- UNI (crieghton played way out with blowout loss)
nec -- 1
ovc -- morehead
patriot -- 1
southern -- 1 (NIT for davidson)
southland -- 1
swac -- 1
summit -- 1
sun belt -- 1

i have 21 bids from these leagues possibly 23 if memphis or butler are upset.

acc tournament up next

 

[papicker]

acc tournament

locks (6) -- unc, duke, wake, fsu, clemson, bc

bubbles (3): maryland -- must make title game, absolute killer loss at uva, would probably have to beat nc st, wake, then duke as well and they would get a spot.
vtech and miami -- the winner of their playout game essentially must beat unc, would give both of their resumes some kinda clout.

most likely 6 bids here with a possibility of 8 (miami and vtech both cant make it!) also would watch out for georgia tech in this tournament as funny as that sounds, its at the georgia dome maybe they can do like their rival georgia did last year!

a-10 tournament up next

 

[papicker]

a10

lock (1) -- xavier

bubbles (2): dayton -- win their game thursday they dont want to give the committee a reason to be left out
temple -- make title game (win would be over likely xavier in semis) i really think this would be enough because they play a tough outofconference schedule and committee would reward them for this.

rhode island shot themselves in the foot with umass loss must win this tournament now, although that could very well happen.

1-3 bids coming from here (probably 2)

big east tournament up next

 

[papicker]

big east

locks (7) -- ville, pitt, uconn, nova, quette, cuse, wvu

bubbles (1) -- providence (1 win, over cincinnati or depaul)

amazing thats it for the bubble a whole one team, im not completely sure providence is deserving but the committee not looking at conferences and teams is a flat out lie. theyll do everything they can to get 8 big easters in. i cant even see anyone making a run here because the bottom 8 teams would have to win 5 striaght days.

7-8 bids from this conference

big 10 up next very interesting tourney!

 

[papicker]

big 10

locks (5) -- michst, purdue, illy, wisky, ohiost

bubbles (4) -- psu (beat indiana, they cant have back to back bad losses)
michigan (beat iowa)
minnesota (beat northwestern)
northwestern (make title game)

ohio st catches a big break in my eyes since they get wisky and a loss there wouldnt look that bad at all, hard for them to miss out now. amazingly we could have 8 from the big 10. northwestern would have probably only need 1 win if they had beat ohio st yesterday.

5-8 bids from here (nw and minny both cant make it)

big 12 up next another big tourney!

 

[papicker]

big 12

locks (4) -- kansas, oklahoma, missouri, texas

bubbles (3): kansas st -- very interesting case, terrible rpi, nothing out of the conference, i think they must make the title game to be in, a win likely over texas in the qtrs wont be enough
tamu -- very hot team, beat texas tech and they get in
oklahoma st -- another very hot team, beat iowa st and you get in

kansas st just had a terrible nonconference schedule that included a loss to oregon, tamu ok st and them have all been so hot lately, although i really have to doubt the strength of this conference since missouri was embarrassed by illinois, kansas by arizona and michigan st, and oklahoma lost to arkanas outta conference so did texas.

4-7 bids from here (likely 6)

my favorite conference the mountain west up next!

 

[bigtendominator]

As an OSU fan, I have no idea how you have them ahead of PSU.

I think PSU a lock. 2 wins over Illinois, and a win at MSU, I don't remember if they beat Purdue at home.

I think are in before OSU.

 

[bigtendominator]

Pac 10
4 locks
1 bubble

Cal, UCLA, UW and ASU (Who I think is gone in the 1st round)

 

[papicker]

mwc

locks (2) -- byu, utah

bubbles (3) -- new mexico (make title game)
san diego st (beat unlv)
unlv (make title game)

a lot of eyes on this conference, new mexico has did nothing out of the conference and a tie with utah and byu says something but i feel like they need a good run here to seal the deal. i think the sd st unlv game is possibly the most meaningful game on thursday.

2-4 bids from here (either sd st or unlv will be out)

pac 10 conference next

 

[papicker]

As an OSU fan, I have no idea how you have them ahead of PSU.

I think PSU a lock. 2 wins over Illinois, and a win at MSU, I don't remember if they beat Purdue at home.

I think are in before OSU.

i think psu is a better team then osu but how bad would a loss to indiana look after you lose to iowa. psu just gotta beat one sorry team and they get in. ohio st caught a break because a wisconsin loss wouldnt be bad like a loss to indiana would. if the seedings were switched then the teams would be switched as well.

 

[papicker]

pac 10

locks (4) -- washington, ucla, asu, cal

bubbles (1) -- arizona (beat asu)

arizona finds themselves in a tight position yet again but i think they beat asu they will be in, whether the committee admits it or not names do matter. i looked at usc but they have nothing to speak of out of the conference and went 2-7 on the road in it, they were swept by washington and ucla as well.

4-5 bids from here

sec up next

 

[papicker]

sec

locks (3) -- ten, lsu, auburn

bubbles (2) -- south carolina (win 1 game) just think this team has to do a little more, lopsided home loss to tennessee looks terrible (everyone saw it because it was on espn)
florida (make title game) wins over arkansas and auburn wont be enough

i have to put auburn in because so many of these bubble teams have blown game after game and they have won every game down the stretch except a loss at lsu, i dont think they shoudl be penalized for losing to florida in their home state.

3-5 bids from here (probably 4)

wcc and wac double special to close it out!

 

[papicker]

wcc

locks (2) -- zags, st marys (enjoy the game tonight both of these teams are in)

wac

bubble (1) utah st -- make title game and lose to nevada on their home court i think they will be ok. 29-5 is still a ridiculously good record. rpi is 27 i believe right now.

1-2 bids here

final tally up shortly!

 

[papicker]

i have a total of 56 bids wrapped up for sure as of monday. some of these teams are right there (psu especially!) i will update this thread again thursday and not much will be happening until then. i will be answering questions if anyone wants to question my selections.

 

[papicker]

wow do i wanna move st marys out after that game, im pretty close to putting them outta the tournament! alright thats it i will be updating this on thursday morning or late wednesday night!

 

[papicker]

Thursday edition (will update every morning from now on!)

well a lot has happened in a few short days

here are the conferences with one bid or at least we thought!

america east -- 1
a-sun -- ETSU
big sky -- portland st
big south -- radford
big west -- 1
colonial -- vcu
cusa -- memphis (im gonna assume they win this, if they dont 2 bids)
horizon -- butler and cleveland st (2)
ivy -- cornell
maac -- siena
mac -- 1
meac -- 1
mvc -- UNI (crieghton played way out with blowout loss)
nec -- robby mo (my alma mater actually!)
ovc -- morehead
patriot -- 1
southern -- chattanooga
southland -- 1
swac -- 1
summit -- nd state
sun belt -- west ky

22 or 23 bids from here, i will not update the conferences that havent started yet or have had no change to the bubble so i will skip the acc and a10 today, onto the big east.

 

[papicker]

big east

locks (7) -- ville, pitt, uconn, nova, quette, cuse, wvu

bubbles (1) -- providence (beat louisville)

i screwed up on monday i admit i didnt give depaul a chance to win against cincy (why should i have they were 0-18) and figured a providence win against cincy would be enough. unfortunately for them depaul got the win and they got a who cares win yesterday. its gonna be close for providence either way.

7-8 bids from this conference

skipping big 10 big 12 up next

 

[papicker]

big 12

locks (5) -- kansas, oklahoma, missouri, texas, ok st

bubbles (1): kansas st -- i dont think a win against texas would be enough, would like to see another win after that
tamu -- CHOKE! OUT!


texas am choked they are out for now, ok st got the job done they are in. k st we are waiting on.

5-7 bids from here

actually that is it for today not any changes in the other conferences (st marys in but on very dicey ground)

will be back with finally tally in a little.

 

[papicker]

oklahoma st and cleveland st earned bids so now 58 teams are in the dance for sure, 7 spots still left. fridays update will be major im sure.

 

[papicker]

friday edition lotta big happenings on thursday! (one bid leagues no changes) starting with acc:

acc tournament

locks (6) -- unc, duke, wake, fsu, clemson, bc

bubbles (3): maryland -- beat wake and win another
vtech -- beat unc today
miamis goose is cooked.

6-8 teams i warned about gtech on monday, i think they have a decent shot at the surprise today.

a-10 up next