#706 Syracuse -3 -110 (2)
Florida St at 16-7 (6-5) and 9-9-1 ats scoring 79.0 ppg giving up 72.6 ppg for a diff of 6.4
Syracuse at 16-8 (6-5) and 11-12 ats scoring 70.3 ppg giving up 64.2 ppg for a diff of 6.1
Line is close. I have Cuse worth 4 at home. Both teams tied at 6-5 in conf play and jockeying for position. They have only played twice and Cuse won last year at home by 13 and they year before at FS by 16. FS have been playing well and away from home and are riding a 4 game winning streak. Their road w's in the streak were over WF and BC. I'll give them those two w's, but they are going to have to prove it to me at the Cuse. And yes, the famous 2-3 zone. Cuse have won 3 straight games and this will be their 4th straight game at home. You talk about being well rested and ready to get back out on the court in a game situation, they last played Feb. 2nd. Florida St definitely has the talent to pull the upset, but I'm going to have to see it to believe it.
#742 Valpo -19 -110 (2)
N. Kentucky at 9-14 (5-7) and 8-11 ats scoring 71.9 ppg giving up 74.2 ppg for a diff of -2.3
Valpo at 20-4 (10-1) and 13-8 scoring 75.8 ppg giving up 59.8 ppg for a diff of 16.0
Diff of 18, Valpo worth 3-4 at home. The line is right considering Valpo has Wright St on (who beat Valpo) deck Sat. That is my biggest worry in this game. But there are just so many reasons why I like Valpo I have to go for them in this one. Valpo beat them on Jan 24 at their place 71-46. They held them to 30% fg in that meeting. That is nothing new for Valpo. Valpo is 4th in the nation in def scoring at 59.8 and 3rd in the nation in fg% holding opponents to 36.9%.
Valpo's other really strong stat is their rebounding. They are 6thin the nation with a +10 1/2 rebounding margin, and a even better +16.5 in league play. That is dominance.
When you control the boards like that you get the 2nd chance points on offense whole limiting you opponents 2nd chance opportunities on offense.
They have a player in Ferdanez who just broke the all time block record for Valpo. Can you imagine how many shots that he didn't block but still altered?
All this leads up to the ft discrepancy that they have have their opponents. In this matchup Valpo has attempted 108 more ft's than their opponent and made 84 more than NK.
Valpo does hit at a 72.5 clip.
The other thing I like about this Valpo team besides their 13-8 ats and 6-3 ats at home, is the way they have been just smoking conf opponents. % times they have won conf games over 25 or more. In theirr last 4 games they have won by margins of 18, 29, 25, and 25.
I guess will see if they take care of business at home against the conf newbie.
#756 Indiana -1 (2)
Iowa at 19-4 (10-1) and 13-7 ats scoring 80.7 ppg giving up 67.4 ppg for a diff of 13.3
Indiana at 19-5 (9-2) and 12-12 ats scoring 84.1 ppg giving up 68.5 ppg for a diff of 15.6
A diff of 2, IU worth 4 at home, line should be 5-6 points imo. You can't do that. You just can't give this #3, #4 team in the nation that many points. I would think everyone and their brother would be on Iowa and could easily take home the troph. Afterall, they beat both Purdue and Mich St twice and took care of them at home. They are 13-7 ats and 5-3 ats away. They are well coached and have some players on that team that play at the same speed every game. IU can't even beat Penn St. (last game everyone remembers) Some of a gun, it's just to easy to play Iowa. In the last 10 games in this series Iowa are 6-4 and 8-2 ats. Some would argue that they have the smarter coach, no argument here on that.
Why did I play Indiana?
That place will be rocking and loud tonight. Iowa may have won 6 out of the last 10 in this series, but IU have won the last 3 straight at home in this series by 7, 13, and 14. So the IU teams are much better than they were 4 years ago. Shooting stats are close between the two teams, but at home IU seems to be in a different zone. If and hopefully when the 3's start falling IU can go on some incredible runs at home.
Guard play: Both teams have some fine guards but Indiana's Yogi Ferrell will be the best one out there on the court. You play up on him and he'll go around you and either score, dump it off to a big for easy score, or kick out to a wide open 3 point shooter and believe me, Indiana has some 3 pt shooters.
Higher ranked: How has that been going this year in college hoop? It's a crap shoot. It just doesn't stop and most of the so called upsets are happening on friendly turf. There is no place like home, just ask Dorothy. Bad attempt at humor but have to at least amuse myself.
At home IU are undefeated in conf play with margins of: 6, 32, 34, 25, and 1.
You know what? If they lose I pay up and give Iowa even more credit.
#744 Ark St/ULL under 157 -110 (1)
Ark St at 11-12 (7-5) and 8-10 ats scoring 75.1 ppg giving up 74.5 ppg for a diff of 0.6
ULL at 13-8 (9-3) and 8-9 ats scoring 82.1 ppg giving up 73.5 ppg for a diff of 8.6
I have the total coming in around 152-153. The first game at Ark St the score was 71-69 and the lien was at 164. They obviously adjusted but I still don;t think they have adjusted enough. Shooting % are not very good for either team. I know anyone can get hot and that's hoops but still like playing the %.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arkansas State's last 10 games when playing on the road against Louisiana-Lafayet (like it and they are on the road)
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games when playing Arkansas State (they go at it)
This line is at 157.
The last 10 games that I see, the total scores came in at: 140, 138, 155, 153, 152, 117, 157, 133,153, 225.
So, I may go down but under it is.
#750 L. Tech -2 1/2 -110 (1)
MTS at 17-6 (9-2) and 10-11-1 ats scoring 72.5 ppg giving up 68.6 ppg for a diff of 4.0
LA. tech at 17-6 (6-4) and 6-9 ats scoring 79.0 ppg giving up 70.2 ppg for a diff of 8.8
Diff of 5, I value LT at auto 2 maybe 3 at home. Line of 6-7. it looks like some value at home for this one. Most of the stats fav LT in this one. I really like the Ft% in favor of LT. MTS shooting 60.9 from the line. They must have the athletes to keep winning games and have a 9-2 conf record.
Middle Tennessee is 8-15-2 ATS in its last 25 games on the road (road game here against a decent team)
Louisiana Tech is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home (just win) by enough that is.
LT are 3-0 and 2-1 ats in this series and have won by a average score of 67.7 to 56.3. (margins of 11, 7, 16,)
I'll risk it and take them at home and hope they can at least win by the fg.
#784 Citadel/Furman over 167 1/2 -110 (1)
Citadel at 10-15 and 8-9 ats scoring 88.6 ppg giving up 93.0 ppg for a diff of -4.4
Furman at 15-11 and 10-7 ats scoring 69.7 ppg giving up 64.2 ppg for a diff of 5.5
Citadel at 12-5 on the o/u and 7-2 on the o/u away.
Furman at 9-8 on the o/u and 4-3 on the o/u at home.
I get 157-158 on the math line. I still like the over in a revenge mode for Furman.
Citadel on Jan 16 beat Furman at home 89-86 for a total of 175, the line was 166.
Not much of a line adjustment for this game. If you think Furman def will slow them down at home that is possible. But then in turn, Furman offense score 86 at Citadel. I would think that they can score more than that at home against a team that gives up 93 ppg. It's going to happen. They are 13 point fav's for a reason. Citadel doesn't give a shit about any of that stuff. I've been through it before with their coach who had these high scoring teams that did not play def at VMI. Their totals should never be taken for granted though, as they are usually higher than they should be. What I think happens (Citadel at 7-2 o/u away) to cause this is the home teams and the fans get caught up in this hectic style and it's exciting. Players want to score points and raise their averages. Games like this are fun and far and few between for them. So going to take a chance and play the over and hope Furman can hit a 100.
#Denver -3 1/2 -110 (1)
W.Ill at 8-13 (1-9) and 8-9 ats scoring 70.9 ppg giving up 70.0 ppg for a diff of 1.0
Denver at 13-11 (5-6) and 9-14 ats scoring 64.3 ppg giving up 64.9 ppg for a diff of -0.6
Line is on spot. I thought it might be a point higher at the most. The once Denver dominance at home has been missing this season. They are a miserable 4-9 ats at home. What they are is a very young team that is finally starting to get used to the system and in the past always give to many points at home because of their reputation and the travel mostly. They have the advantage in all shooting stats in this game. W. Ill have a strong rebounding advantage.
Denver won back in Jan at WI by a score of 76-69 as a 4 point dog. I really see no reason why they can't win at home. One of their starters Fr G Rosga is listed as ? for the game. He does average, (can't read my writing, I think 10 or 11 ppg). I'm not a doctor but hope he plays.
Denver is 6-0 and 5-1 ats the 6 games in this series with the average score of 70 to 56.5. ( Like it)
Denver 3-0 at home in this series with margins of 14, 8, and 27. (like it)
I know it's a young Denver team but going to risk it at home that they an cover this number.
Good luck everyone, and please bet reasonably, and if you play any of my games it's because you can make your own decisions on who you play and what you bet.
