So i have used Ken Pom for capping, but recently started to notice 2 trends in their "fan match" section where they have prediction of the game, along w other things.
1) When the predicted score has the higher ranked team winning by one point and the % for that outcome is less than 55%, more often than not (not every time) the lower seed won. The rankings or seeds are Ken Poms own statistical rankings. Usually when you get a low %, the teams are pretty closely ranked. But sometimes there is a bigger difference in rankings and those lower seeds actually seemed even more likely to cover or win.
2) The second trend, which was rarer, is when the lower seeded team is just outright predicted to win. In those cases, Ken Pom was correct and the lower seed would actually win or at least cover.
I just wanted to keep track of this and see if it is anything, maybe to late in the season to be starting it, and probably better to do this starting in January or something. But I'm curious to see...
I'm not playing many of these, if I do I will note it or a personal play, but this is just looking at a number it doesn't really take into account how a team is playing at present, which as we know is huge, especially this time of year.
I'll post the ones for today in a second...
1) When the predicted score has the higher ranked team winning by one point and the % for that outcome is less than 55%, more often than not (not every time) the lower seed won. The rankings or seeds are Ken Poms own statistical rankings. Usually when you get a low %, the teams are pretty closely ranked. But sometimes there is a bigger difference in rankings and those lower seeds actually seemed even more likely to cover or win.
2) The second trend, which was rarer, is when the lower seeded team is just outright predicted to win. In those cases, Ken Pom was correct and the lower seed would actually win or at least cover.
I just wanted to keep track of this and see if it is anything, maybe to late in the season to be starting it, and probably better to do this starting in January or something. But I'm curious to see...
I'm not playing many of these, if I do I will note it or a personal play, but this is just looking at a number it doesn't really take into account how a team is playing at present, which as we know is huge, especially this time of year.
I'll post the ones for today in a second...
