Like I said I won’t post my record here since it was all posted on covers but for those that would like to know I am sitting up 41.75 units so far on the season. GL to you all this weekend!
MISSOURI VS TEXAS –13.5 (-117) (7 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
People will look at last weeks score and just think that the Horns have no offense and can’t move the ball. The fact is Stoops owns UT offensive coordinator Greg Davis and to think Mizzu will have the same success could be costly. Mizzu has no where near the athletes on defense that OU has. Mack Brown has a tendency after the OU game to go on great runs through the conference and I expect the same this year.
The Tigers just aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home the last couple of years. They lost at Troy this year, and struggled at woeful Baylor in the first half. The Tigers only led 6-3 with under 2 minutes to play until an interception taken down all the way down inside the ten led to a touchdown to put them up 13-3 at half-time.
Now they have to play at Texas where the home crowd and players should be fired up after yet another loss to the Sooners. The coaching staff is under some heat right now especially Greg Davis, so I’m sure he will be opening up the playbook to try and pad the statistics.
Vince Young and Cedric Benson running behind one of the top offensive lines in the country have already combined for 1,120 rushing yards. You can say that Mizzu will load the box like OU and stop the run, but everyone including Arkansas has done that this year and the Horns still got their yards. OU was the only team to shut down the Horns rushing attack, and Mizzu isn’t even in the same class as OU.
The Mizzu offense lives and dies by the dual threat of QB Brad Smith. While Benson may have loss the Heisman last week, LB Derrick Johnson all but one the Butkis and any other defensive trophy out there. Johnson had a pick, and forced his 7<SUP>th</SUP> fumble of the season and mind you he has only played two full games. DJ will be the main spy on Brad Smith, and will be all over him when he leaves the pocket.
The poor road record and the recent success of Mack Brown after the OU game leads me to believe Texas will win this game very comfortably.
OKLAHOMA –19.5 (-119) AT KSU (7 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
OKLAHOMA –11 1H (3 UNITS) (5 DIMES)
Revenge, Revenge, Revenge. Those that know Bob Stoops knows when he has a chip on his shoulder or has been embarrassed by a team he will seek payback with a vengeance. For those that don’t know the story when Texas was looking to replace Mackovic, Stoops lobbied for the position pretty hard while he was DC at Florida. Darrell Royal basically told him he was too young and wasn’t good enough material to coach at Texas. Well, we all have seen for the last 5 years the drive and passion he has in kicking the Longhorns butts all over the field. You can also look at the A&M game last year, as Stoops seeked to revenge a loss from the year before, 77-0 was the final outcome.
Now we have KSU, who seemingly ended OU season by supposedly coming up with the blueprint plan to defeat the Sooners that was eventually used by LSU as well in the Sugar Bowl. Its payback time, and with a struggling KSU squad I expect this game to be a complete blowout.
Statistically speaking this has been the worst KSU defense in 13 years in scoring defense. And they haven’t even played Texas or OU yet. Giving up around 30 points a game and ranking 85<SUP>th</SUP> in the country.
Some other glaring statistics stick out when looking at the Cats. Teams have just as many punts (21), as they so touchdowns. 7 of those touchdowns have started inside the red zone due to turnovers or poor special teams coverage. 11 turnovers have resulted in 45 points for the opposition. Out of 62 possessions by the opponent, they have scored 37% of the time.
Now they face a Sooner offense that ranks 17<SUP>th</SUP> nationally in scoring, 8<SUP>th</SUP> in rushing, 16<SUP>th</SUP> in pass efficiency, and 14<SUP>th</SUP> overall. The Sooners now have Adrian Peterson at RB, a threat they didn’t have in last years title game.
Everyone was talking about Darren Sproels before the season started and a run for the Heisman trophy. I knew he wasn’t going to have near the success as in years past due to the absence of QB Ell Roberson. Just like Cedric Benson didn’t "arrive" on the national scene until running QB Vince Young took over, these running QBs make life a little easier for the RBs. Teams couldn’t just key on Sproels in the run game with the threat of Roberson back there last year. Now with Meier at QB teams are keying in on Sproels and successfully taking him out of the offense. Sproels also has 6 turnovers so far this season.
NOTRE DAME VS NAVY +7 (-108) (4 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
The Midshipmen will have had 16 days between games. A well rested Navy squad, having two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, as this is their best chance to end the 40 game losing streak.
Navy ranks sixth nationally in rushing offense averaging 267.4 yards per game on the ground. The Midshipmen also rank among the country's most efficient passing offenses (sixth, 165.70 rating). Quarterback Aaron Polanco ranks among the top 50 in total offense at 205.4 ypg. Another important stat is the discipline shown by Navy in being one of the least penalized teams in the country (6<SUP>th</SUP>).
You can break down the stats anyway you like for or against as both teams are pretty much even on paper. This is more of a gut play then anything for me, as seven points is too much for me to pass on what should be a close hard-fought battle.
TEXAS A&M AT OKLAHOMA ST. –6.5 (-119) (7 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I think the Aggie hype machine ends here. After being embarrassed by Utah on the road this year, A&M has reeled off a four game winning streak. Wyoming, Clemson, and KSU are decent teams but those where all games played in friendly Kyle Field. Seemingly those teams are not having very good seasons either.
There have been two situations to always play against the Aggies, on the road, or as an underdog. In the past three seasons the Aggies have been 2-11 ATS as a dog, and 3-9 ATS on the road. This won’t be any ordinary road test either as Stillwater is a tough place to go in and get a win. OSU is 15-2 SU, and 11-4 ATS at home the last three seasons with their only losses coming from top 5 squads in Texas and OU. OSU is 15-0 SU, and 11-3 ATS the last three seasons as the favorite.
Aggies have seen a rushing attack like this all year, and probably won’t until they face Texas. I like OSU at home in this match-up fellas.
BC –9 (-115) AT PITT (6 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I actually got BC at –7 when the line opened at pinnacle Sunday evening, but since I’m late posting I’ll go ahead and post the current line. Seriously doubt it’s going to matter. Pitt is horrible.
A week off should help the Eagles get healthy as they were banged up with numerous injuries. They face a Pitt squad that can’t run the ball (2.7 ypc), and a QB in Tyler Palko who is really struggling (5 INTS). Pitt had to use two trick plays in its comeback win vs Temple, a halfback pass, and a flea flicker.
How are they going to manufacture points against a BC defense that ranks 6<SUP>th</SUP> in scoring defense, 8<SUP>th</SUP> in rushing defense, and 14<SUP>th</SUP> overall?
Look at Pitt’s last three games and you’ll notice they have given up an average of 425 yards to a Div II school in Furman, Connecticut, and woeful Temple.
I think BC shuts down the Pitt offense, and easily wins this game.
VIRGINIA +3 (-108) AT FSU (5 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
Virginia leads the ACC in scoring, rushing, passing, and total offense. UVA is only one of three teams in the country to rank in the top 10 in both total defense and offense. Favorite stat regarding Virginia is they’ve only turned the ball over two times this season 2<SUP>nd</SUP> best in the country.
The question is these stats have been racked up against sub-par teams, and how will they fare on the road? But which FSU team will show? They looked awful last week against a sad Cuse team, and couldn’t move the ball what-so-ever against Miami’s defense. The Noles have had more injuries then any team in college football this year, and that gives me even more confidence to play Virginia.
Wyatt Sexston hasn’t blown me away in his first two starts and he’ll be facing a much tougher defense in the Al Groh led Cavs. This game is going to come down to a field goal IMO, and I’ll gladly be on the team getting three points.
HAWAII AT UTEP –3 (-132) (6 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I usually buy the hook down on 3,7, and 10. It seems to always bite me in the butt when I don’t.
Mike Price has definitely made an impact on the Miners as they have won 3 out of its last four games including the shocker over Fresno St. Price who has always been a defensive minded coach will try to confuse Timmy Change much like he did Paul Pinegar last week. UTEP held Pinegar to just 126 yards on 20 completed passes, sacked him three times and picked off a pair of passes as well.
On paper once again this game looks fairly even. With Hawaii having to go on the road for just the second time this season, and the way UTEP is playing I’ll give it a shot.
UCLA AT CAL –14 (-114) (5 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
How impressed were you with Cal last week despite the loss? Once again Cal dominated the stat sheet but couldn’t pull it out in the end thanks to some costly miscues.
Cal may be the most complete team in college football right now boasting the second ranked offense and the 5<SUP>th</SUP> ranked defense in the country. I know all about the injury to Lyman but does it really matter who head coach Jeff Tedford puts in this system with a QB like Aaron Rodgers slinging it around?
Cal boasts the 11<SUP>th</SUP> ranked rushing attack in the country and will exploit the Bruins front seven all day long. The Bruins are one of the worst run defenses in the country and I’m sorry but if Arizona can pile up 258 yards rushing what do you think J.J Arrington and his 578 yards (7.7 ypc) is going to do?
Pick your poison because once Arrington starts finding the holes much like OSU did early this year, Rodgers will go up top and beat you with his arm.
I have a feeling this game could get ugly, especially at home with a Cal team that is just stinging right now from its missed opportunity last week.
ASU +10.5 AT USC (-115) (4 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I just don’t see what the hoop-la is regarding USC right now. They should’ve lost that game last week hands down but were fortunate to capitalize on some Cal miscues on special teams. USC has looked beatable in almost every game they’ve played this year, and getting 10.5 here should be a gift.
If losing their first and third best receivers, mike Williams and Whitney Lewis before the season started didn’t hurt it will hurt even more so now with the loss of this years go-to-guy Steve Smith. USC had trouble with the blitz from Cal last week, and you can bet ASU will continue to throw the same blitz package that frustrated the Ducks in Eugene.
They face an ASU defense that has so far looked good early on in the season. They rank 23<SUP>rd</SUP> overall in total defense and rushing defense.
ASU will also have QB Andrew Walter to fall on as he’s only thrown for 1,249 yards and a 15/1 TD to INT ratio. He will have to be the man though because ASU has some major injuries at the running back position.
With the issues of USC at wide-out and the arm of Walter I think ASU can at least hang within 10.5 points of SC.
MISSOURI VS TEXAS –13.5 (-117) (7 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
People will look at last weeks score and just think that the Horns have no offense and can’t move the ball. The fact is Stoops owns UT offensive coordinator Greg Davis and to think Mizzu will have the same success could be costly. Mizzu has no where near the athletes on defense that OU has. Mack Brown has a tendency after the OU game to go on great runs through the conference and I expect the same this year.
The Tigers just aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home the last couple of years. They lost at Troy this year, and struggled at woeful Baylor in the first half. The Tigers only led 6-3 with under 2 minutes to play until an interception taken down all the way down inside the ten led to a touchdown to put them up 13-3 at half-time.
Now they have to play at Texas where the home crowd and players should be fired up after yet another loss to the Sooners. The coaching staff is under some heat right now especially Greg Davis, so I’m sure he will be opening up the playbook to try and pad the statistics.
Vince Young and Cedric Benson running behind one of the top offensive lines in the country have already combined for 1,120 rushing yards. You can say that Mizzu will load the box like OU and stop the run, but everyone including Arkansas has done that this year and the Horns still got their yards. OU was the only team to shut down the Horns rushing attack, and Mizzu isn’t even in the same class as OU.
The Mizzu offense lives and dies by the dual threat of QB Brad Smith. While Benson may have loss the Heisman last week, LB Derrick Johnson all but one the Butkis and any other defensive trophy out there. Johnson had a pick, and forced his 7<SUP>th</SUP> fumble of the season and mind you he has only played two full games. DJ will be the main spy on Brad Smith, and will be all over him when he leaves the pocket.
The poor road record and the recent success of Mack Brown after the OU game leads me to believe Texas will win this game very comfortably.
OKLAHOMA –19.5 (-119) AT KSU (7 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
OKLAHOMA –11 1H (3 UNITS) (5 DIMES)
Revenge, Revenge, Revenge. Those that know Bob Stoops knows when he has a chip on his shoulder or has been embarrassed by a team he will seek payback with a vengeance. For those that don’t know the story when Texas was looking to replace Mackovic, Stoops lobbied for the position pretty hard while he was DC at Florida. Darrell Royal basically told him he was too young and wasn’t good enough material to coach at Texas. Well, we all have seen for the last 5 years the drive and passion he has in kicking the Longhorns butts all over the field. You can also look at the A&M game last year, as Stoops seeked to revenge a loss from the year before, 77-0 was the final outcome.
Now we have KSU, who seemingly ended OU season by supposedly coming up with the blueprint plan to defeat the Sooners that was eventually used by LSU as well in the Sugar Bowl. Its payback time, and with a struggling KSU squad I expect this game to be a complete blowout.
Statistically speaking this has been the worst KSU defense in 13 years in scoring defense. And they haven’t even played Texas or OU yet. Giving up around 30 points a game and ranking 85<SUP>th</SUP> in the country.
Some other glaring statistics stick out when looking at the Cats. Teams have just as many punts (21), as they so touchdowns. 7 of those touchdowns have started inside the red zone due to turnovers or poor special teams coverage. 11 turnovers have resulted in 45 points for the opposition. Out of 62 possessions by the opponent, they have scored 37% of the time.
Now they face a Sooner offense that ranks 17<SUP>th</SUP> nationally in scoring, 8<SUP>th</SUP> in rushing, 16<SUP>th</SUP> in pass efficiency, and 14<SUP>th</SUP> overall. The Sooners now have Adrian Peterson at RB, a threat they didn’t have in last years title game.
Everyone was talking about Darren Sproels before the season started and a run for the Heisman trophy. I knew he wasn’t going to have near the success as in years past due to the absence of QB Ell Roberson. Just like Cedric Benson didn’t "arrive" on the national scene until running QB Vince Young took over, these running QBs make life a little easier for the RBs. Teams couldn’t just key on Sproels in the run game with the threat of Roberson back there last year. Now with Meier at QB teams are keying in on Sproels and successfully taking him out of the offense. Sproels also has 6 turnovers so far this season.
NOTRE DAME VS NAVY +7 (-108) (4 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
The Midshipmen will have had 16 days between games. A well rested Navy squad, having two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, as this is their best chance to end the 40 game losing streak.
Navy ranks sixth nationally in rushing offense averaging 267.4 yards per game on the ground. The Midshipmen also rank among the country's most efficient passing offenses (sixth, 165.70 rating). Quarterback Aaron Polanco ranks among the top 50 in total offense at 205.4 ypg. Another important stat is the discipline shown by Navy in being one of the least penalized teams in the country (6<SUP>th</SUP>).
You can break down the stats anyway you like for or against as both teams are pretty much even on paper. This is more of a gut play then anything for me, as seven points is too much for me to pass on what should be a close hard-fought battle.
TEXAS A&M AT OKLAHOMA ST. –6.5 (-119) (7 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I think the Aggie hype machine ends here. After being embarrassed by Utah on the road this year, A&M has reeled off a four game winning streak. Wyoming, Clemson, and KSU are decent teams but those where all games played in friendly Kyle Field. Seemingly those teams are not having very good seasons either.
There have been two situations to always play against the Aggies, on the road, or as an underdog. In the past three seasons the Aggies have been 2-11 ATS as a dog, and 3-9 ATS on the road. This won’t be any ordinary road test either as Stillwater is a tough place to go in and get a win. OSU is 15-2 SU, and 11-4 ATS at home the last three seasons with their only losses coming from top 5 squads in Texas and OU. OSU is 15-0 SU, and 11-3 ATS the last three seasons as the favorite.
Aggies have seen a rushing attack like this all year, and probably won’t until they face Texas. I like OSU at home in this match-up fellas.
BC –9 (-115) AT PITT (6 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I actually got BC at –7 when the line opened at pinnacle Sunday evening, but since I’m late posting I’ll go ahead and post the current line. Seriously doubt it’s going to matter. Pitt is horrible.
A week off should help the Eagles get healthy as they were banged up with numerous injuries. They face a Pitt squad that can’t run the ball (2.7 ypc), and a QB in Tyler Palko who is really struggling (5 INTS). Pitt had to use two trick plays in its comeback win vs Temple, a halfback pass, and a flea flicker.
How are they going to manufacture points against a BC defense that ranks 6<SUP>th</SUP> in scoring defense, 8<SUP>th</SUP> in rushing defense, and 14<SUP>th</SUP> overall?
Look at Pitt’s last three games and you’ll notice they have given up an average of 425 yards to a Div II school in Furman, Connecticut, and woeful Temple.
I think BC shuts down the Pitt offense, and easily wins this game.
VIRGINIA +3 (-108) AT FSU (5 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
Virginia leads the ACC in scoring, rushing, passing, and total offense. UVA is only one of three teams in the country to rank in the top 10 in both total defense and offense. Favorite stat regarding Virginia is they’ve only turned the ball over two times this season 2<SUP>nd</SUP> best in the country.
The question is these stats have been racked up against sub-par teams, and how will they fare on the road? But which FSU team will show? They looked awful last week against a sad Cuse team, and couldn’t move the ball what-so-ever against Miami’s defense. The Noles have had more injuries then any team in college football this year, and that gives me even more confidence to play Virginia.
Wyatt Sexston hasn’t blown me away in his first two starts and he’ll be facing a much tougher defense in the Al Groh led Cavs. This game is going to come down to a field goal IMO, and I’ll gladly be on the team getting three points.
HAWAII AT UTEP –3 (-132) (6 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I usually buy the hook down on 3,7, and 10. It seems to always bite me in the butt when I don’t.
Mike Price has definitely made an impact on the Miners as they have won 3 out of its last four games including the shocker over Fresno St. Price who has always been a defensive minded coach will try to confuse Timmy Change much like he did Paul Pinegar last week. UTEP held Pinegar to just 126 yards on 20 completed passes, sacked him three times and picked off a pair of passes as well.
On paper once again this game looks fairly even. With Hawaii having to go on the road for just the second time this season, and the way UTEP is playing I’ll give it a shot.
UCLA AT CAL –14 (-114) (5 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
How impressed were you with Cal last week despite the loss? Once again Cal dominated the stat sheet but couldn’t pull it out in the end thanks to some costly miscues.
Cal may be the most complete team in college football right now boasting the second ranked offense and the 5<SUP>th</SUP> ranked defense in the country. I know all about the injury to Lyman but does it really matter who head coach Jeff Tedford puts in this system with a QB like Aaron Rodgers slinging it around?
Cal boasts the 11<SUP>th</SUP> ranked rushing attack in the country and will exploit the Bruins front seven all day long. The Bruins are one of the worst run defenses in the country and I’m sorry but if Arizona can pile up 258 yards rushing what do you think J.J Arrington and his 578 yards (7.7 ypc) is going to do?
Pick your poison because once Arrington starts finding the holes much like OSU did early this year, Rodgers will go up top and beat you with his arm.
I have a feeling this game could get ugly, especially at home with a Cal team that is just stinging right now from its missed opportunity last week.
ASU +10.5 AT USC (-115) (4 UNITS) (PINNACLE)
I just don’t see what the hoop-la is regarding USC right now. They should’ve lost that game last week hands down but were fortunate to capitalize on some Cal miscues on special teams. USC has looked beatable in almost every game they’ve played this year, and getting 10.5 here should be a gift.
If losing their first and third best receivers, mike Williams and Whitney Lewis before the season started didn’t hurt it will hurt even more so now with the loss of this years go-to-guy Steve Smith. USC had trouble with the blitz from Cal last week, and you can bet ASU will continue to throw the same blitz package that frustrated the Ducks in Eugene.
They face an ASU defense that has so far looked good early on in the season. They rank 23<SUP>rd</SUP> overall in total defense and rushing defense.
ASU will also have QB Andrew Walter to fall on as he’s only thrown for 1,249 yards and a 15/1 TD to INT ratio. He will have to be the man though because ASU has some major injuries at the running back position.
With the issues of USC at wide-out and the arm of Walter I think ASU can at least hang within 10.5 points of SC.
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