St Mary's (2)
St. Mary's at 12-2 and 4-6 ats and 3-0 away scoring 81.9 ppg giving up 66.9 ppg for a diff of 15
BYU at 12-2 and 5-6 ats and 7-1 at home scoring 76.5 ppg and giving up 66.0 ppg for a diff of 10.5
A diff of 5.5 and BYU strong at home worth 4, and the line is right on the mark! I guess but I don't think so.
St. Mary's played a bunch of people throughout the non conf season. They never poured it on teams like they could have. In this game the number is at a number where I'm hoping that doesn't even matter.
St. M are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. West Coast. (like it and take care of business)
BYU are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 home games. (usually because they are giving so many points)
Betting a (2) because I really like this St. Mary's team and their style of play. They have a boat load of experience and shoot the ball really well in all phases of the game. They usually take really good care of the basketball and are a very unselfish team whereas any player can do damage at anytime on the court. I like the small spread as St. Mary's won 3 encounters with BYU last season.
St. M took them down in the conf tournament 81-50 (yes, revenge will be on BYU mind)
St Mary's beat them at home 70-57 (Revenge, will be on BYU mind)
St Mary's won at home 81-68
So, we know BYU will have that extra adrenalin going for this one, but I'm pretty sure they were fired up last year as every year for this game.
Once again, what a veteran and smart team, well coached, and at a very good number in my opinion. I compare it to the Kansas game last night when the line opened at 2 and then reached 4 or so.
The only thing stopping me from a (3) on this game is the power of the home court. I'm not sure how many students hang around during college break in that area.
San Diego St (2)
Utah St at 8-6 and 5-6 ats and 0-5 away scoring 74.9 ppg and giving up 69.1 ppg for a diff of 5.8
San Diego St at 8-4 and 6-4 ats and 5-1 home scoring 77.5 and giving up 66.2 ppg for a diff of 11.3
Diff of 5.5 and SDS worth 4 at home so line right on target. You can see it gets tougher to find the edges as the season goes on.
I've set this line for my own figuring at 16. A lot of it has to do with Utah St poor play on the road (0-5) where they seem to be a different team when at home.
• At home the Aztecs are averaging 77.2 scoring, and holding teams to 60.0 points scored on defense. (diff of 17.2)
• On the road, the Aggies are averaging 67.2 scoring, and holding teams to 75.2 points scored on defense. (diff of -8)
So you can kind of see why I like San Diego St chances at home in this one for a (2)
USU are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games. (like it a lot)
USU are 1-7-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. (love it)
Favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. (home court usually a factor in this series)
So San Diego St for a (2) and hopefully they can take care of business.
Wisconsin (2)
Mass Lowell at 6-6 and 0-0 ats and 0-4 away scoring 79.5 ppg giving up 77.6 ppg for a diff of 1.9
Wiscy at 7-7 and 4-8-1 ats and 6-3 home scoring 69.4 ppg giving up 66.3 ppg for a diff of 3.1
Diff of 1.2 and right now Wiscy only worth a 3-4 at home so line could be around 5. BUT, giving 19 points (wow)
The last thing I'm trying to do is convince fellow gamblers to follow me. I'm just trying to show you how I think sometimes, (wrong a lot).
My first impression of this line was WOW, way to many for a struggling Wiscy team to cover.
READ THIS: you will see why Wiscy has struggled so much)
Overall, it’s been a roller-coaster ride of a season for Wisconsin which started 2-0, then lost eight of its next 10 – including four defeats vs. ranked teams – before its current three-game win streak. Injuries, particularly to the backcourt, have played a major role as freshman Kobe King has been lost for the season with a knee injury and point guard D’Mitrik Trice is out indefinitely as he recovers from foot surgery. Meanwhile, fellow guard Brad Davison has been in and out, playing through an ailing shoulder, and taken together, it’s held back the development of a young team which entered the season with four new starters. “We haven’t become complete yet in terms of putting 40 solid minutes together,” Wisconsin coach Greg Gard said after Wednesday’s 82-70 win over visiting Chicago State.
TV: 4 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
So after reading this why would I even think about taking Wiscy and for a (2)?
First as always, I looked at past games and I see that the only really decent win for Lowell was in their opener to state rival UMASS by (5). May not be a rival for UMASS but you know that Lowell played like it was for the state championship.
Their other losses on the road were by 13, 18, and 14 to NJIT, Wagner, and Brown. So I'm thinking, Okay, I firmly believe Wiscy is better than any of these teams.
Coach Gard is aware of not putting 40 minutes together. I''m pretty sure that he wants a big win heading into conf. AMryland crunched UMBC by 20 and that team is predicted to finish high in their conf while Lowell will be in their 2nd year of conf play.
I don't advise anyone to play this game unless you strongly like it your self. I'm going on Iowa crunching, Mich St crunching, Indiana crunching, these big 10 teams are putting the finishing touches on non conf teams that they should be putting on them to end the year and head into the REAL season.
If you look closely at the scores since finals. you will notice a lot of that.
So once again this play not based on hard core numbers for me, or trends, more of a feeling, and I hate to admit this, but it's a dew factor and hopefully the coach is on board!
Sure coach was embarrassed and let the team know how embarrassing it was to only beat Chicago St by 12! This one is on the Big 10 network to.
I just expect an all out effort by Wiscy and hopefully some awe by the visitors by playing at the Kohl Center!
Good luck everyone and Happy Holidays!
