#544 Miami -3 -110 (1)
Louisville at 22-6 (11-4) and 12-11-1 ats scoring 77.0 ppg giving up 60.8 ppg for a diff of 16.3
Miami at 22-5 (11-4) and 16-9-1 ats scoring 76.3 ppg giving up 66.3 ppg for a diff of 10.0
Diff of 6, MF worth 4-5 at home, line is close, a lot on the line as both teams are tied for 2nd a game behind NC who stands a good chance at a loss at Virginia. The first meeting was a dog fight at Louis 55-53. This one most likely the same. I like the home team battling for first and they have places to go and Louis doesn't. Of course Louis will play hard and tough, but it's just not the same anymore. Advantage to Louis on the boards but they striggle at the ft line and that's where MF has its best shot at winning this game. They shoot 74.6% form the line and get to the line a lot. Call them fouls ref, and then hopefully things will work out.
MF 16-9-1 ats and more important 11-3-1 ats at home. (like it a lot)
Louis is 2-7 ats away from home. (they just don't seem to be as tough on the road)
Louisville is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road (same)
Just like the home team at home in this big conf game.
A couple of MF players are banged up but said the were probable for this game. (a little scary, but most players are banged up or nursing injuries this time of year)
#556 Aces -4 -110 (1)
N. Iowa at 18-12 (10-7) and 16-13 ats scoring 69.3 ppg giving up 64.0 ppg for a diff of 5.3
Evansville at 23-7 (12-5) and 11-13-1 ats scoring 76.2 ppg giving up 67.1 ppg for a diff of 9.1
Diff of 4, Aces worth 4 at home, I like the line and think it should be at least 6. It's the last home game for 4 seniors that have been a major part of this team for 4 years. I just got a gut feeling that they will go out in style. Not to mention that 2nd place is online in the valley. That is big as you wouldn't have to play Wichita until the championship game if it came down to that scenario.
N. Iowa won by 3 at their place in a close one. Aces blew that game.
Northern Iowa is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road (good)
Northern Iowa is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road (a little struggle)
Northern Iowa is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Evansville (even better)
Northern Iowa is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Evansville (just don't see them winning this one either)
#580 Ohio -3 1/2 -110 (1)
Buff at 16-12 (9-6) and 13-11-2 ats scoring 76.8 ppg giving up 74.5 ppg for a diff of 2.3
Ohio at 18-9 (9-6) and 15-8 ats scoring 78.1 ppg giving up 73.4 ppg for a diff of 4.7
Diff of 3, Ohio worth 3-4 at home, line is off imo, should be at least 5. Both teams are battling it out and still trying to catch Akron who won Friday. Ohio has always been a tough out at home.
Ohio are 8-3 ats at home. (like it)
They lead in every stat but steals. They shoot to 75.3 % from the ft line.
Ohio beat Buff 94-75 at Buff (19)
Buffalo is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Ohio (I like it)
Ohio is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home (tough out at home)
Ohio is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Buffalo (good and the line is reasonable)
Just following a strong trend with the home team.
#600 Purdue -3 1/2 -110 (1)
Maryland at 23-5 (11-4) and 12-14-1 ats scoring 76.1 ppg giving up 65.0 ppg for a diff of 11.1
Purdue at 21-7 (9-6) and 13-11 ats scoring 77.2 ppg giving up 64.0 ppg for a diff of 13.2
Diff of 2, Purdue worth 5 at home, Hmmm, line should be higher imho, Purdue is a different creature at home.
Purdue is 6-1 in conf play at home with margins of 10, 1, 15, 11, 17, 17, and a -7 loss to Iowa (who was beating everyone back then)
Maryland beat Purdue at Maryland 72-61 a couple of weeks back. I watched that one and Purdue got some bad breaks in that game. They are home now. Maryland has been very vulnerable on the road where they are 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games away. No doubt both teams are going dancing but there is a lot on the line for both teams. Maryland only a game behind Indiana in conf play and time is getting short. Purdue all the way back in 7th in conf play and would like nothing more to move up and it's bunched.
Both teams shoot the ball well and the Boilers have the big advantage on the boards.
Just riding another home team with a reasonable spread that very seldom lose at Mackey.
#611 Notre Dame -2 -110 (1)
Notre Dame at 19-8 (10-5) and 12-12-1 ats scoring 77.7 ppg giving up 69.7 ppg for a diff of 8.0
Florida St at 16-12 (6-10) and 9-14-1 ats scoring 77.5 ppg giving up 73.9 ppg for a diff of 3.6
Diff of 4, FS worth 4 at home, yet we have a live home dog, I think the line is right considering Florida St would have to win the conf tournament to go dancing. Notre Dame tied for 4th with Duke, Virginia, and MF and Louis a game ahead and then NC. So it's big for the Irish, they need to climb higher in the standings, try to get a higher seed in their conf tournament, all could lead to a higher line in the NCAA.
Not to mention that ND has played pretty decent on the road and has been competitive in most of their games. I don't know what's happened to Florida St as they have really went down the hill fast.
Florida State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games (says a lot about their slide)
Florida State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games (struggling) 3 of those by DD's
Taking a rare visitor and hope they don't burn me like they did at GT game a couple of games ago.
#624 Boise/SDS under 129 1/2 -110 (1)
Boise at 18-10 (9-6) and 13-12-1 ats scoring 78.4 ppg giving up 70.4 ppg for a diff of 8.0
SD.ST at 21-7 (14-1) and 11-10-3 atrs scoring 67.0 ppg giving up 60.1 ppg for a diff of 6.9
Doesn't matter on the diff because I'm on the under. Bothe team around 500 on their totals this season. SDS may be 2 games more to the under. Can't read my scribs right now.
The only reason I played tis game was the strong trend between the two teams.
The O/U is 1-9 last 1o in this series: (automatic for me)
SDS just beat Boise at Boise 56-53 (109)in Jan.
the last 5 games in this series have totaled 109, 102, 107, 132. 135,
Played it and hope it's another grinder.
#652 Wichita St -15 1/2 -115 (1)
Ill St at 18-12 (12-5) and 14-14 ats scoring 67.8 ppg giving up 65.8 ppg for a diff 2.0
Wichita St at 22-7 (15-2) and 18-9 ats scoring 74.2 ppg giving up 59.5 ppg for a diff of 14.7
Diff of 13, Wichita worth 5 at home, line could be higher, and it should imo, but ISU did beat WS a couple of weeks ago by 5 points at home. This another one of those games that will be honoring their seniors and these guys are going to be missed big time. They want NOTHING else except to go out in style. it will be a bonus to whip up on Ill St who ahd the game of their lives when they pulled off the big upset at home.
Wichita State is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Illinois State (it will be 16-3 SU after this one)
I wrote all about Wichita St in their game at LC earlier this week. Just go back to that day if you want to read it again for a refresher. I'm getting tired so will make this quick.
Wichita St lost at home to N. Iowa by 3 points on Feb 6. (that must have turned on the lights)
Since that loss their margins of victory have been by 22, 34, 31 and 28. I think in my last write up they were like +17 in conf margin of victory.
Anyway, that's my action for Sat, or today now!
good luck everyone
