#524 WV -5 (2)
Iowa St at 19-8 (8-6) and 12-11-1 ats scoring 83.0 ppg giving up 75.1 ppg for a diff of 7.9
WV at 20-7 (9-5) and 14-10 ats scoring 79.3 ppg giving up 66.0 ppg for a diff of 13.3
Diff of 5, WV worth 4 to 5 at home, line is a couple points low, probably due to Miles still inures and listed as day to day, and Page did play last game all though not 100%. Throw in some revenge for Iowa St and this could be another close game in this conf. WV did get them 81-76 at Iowa St where they don't lose very often.
Iowa St at home averages: 86.2 ppg
Iowa St away averages: 78.1 ppg. (at WV where the defense have been know to be stingy, leads the conf in def scoring at 66 ppg and turnover margin at 4.5 per game. (like it)
Iowa St was out rebounded in its last game against TCU by 12, (TCU is last in the con in rebs) WV is first in rebs in conf with margin 0f +8.6 (like it)
WV tied for 2nd with a couple of other teams and two games behind Kansas. They have lost back to back games. I would be very surprised if a Huggins coached team loses its 3rd straight game.
In the stats I noticed that McKay (Iowa St) sat out the entire game even though he was available to play. Coach said he doesn't know if he will play him or not in this game. Obviously some distractions going on that team right now. Iowa St had 4 starters who played 34 minutes or more in their last game. WV will get to them if that's the case in this game.
So as always when I bet a WV game I have to sit there and cringe every time they go to the ft line. I guess that's the thrill of gambling that deep down we all get our kicks out of, or were just plain nuts anyway to bet on college kids.
#516 Miami F -1 -110 (1)
Virginia at 21-5 (10-4) and 12-12 ats scoring 71.1 ppg giving up 59.5 ppg for a diff of 11.6
Miami at 21-5 (10-4) and 15-9-1 ats scoring 76.8 ppg giving up 66.5 ppg for a diff of 10.
Diff of almost 2, MF worth 4 at home, I really think the line is in favor of MF. The line should be -3 imho. Virginia has really become a very popular betting team and their lines are almost always off in games. Probably why they are only 12-12 ats and 4-6 away ats. Meanwhile MF are 15-9 ats and 10-3-1 ats at home. Also, coming off the beating at NC most see them as not good as they thought. Once again it's that bounce around thing that is going on with most of the top teams this year. You can get caught up in listening to the media people who are really no different than me or you. These two teams are tied for 2nd place and only a game behind NC in conf play. This could and should be a game that determines the difference between #1 and # 3 seeds in the tournament.
Virginia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami (they can be beat, and this is one of the better MF teams)
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home (playing well at home)
Miami is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home (covering ats at home)
66-58 last time they played in Jan as Virginia took care of business at home. This game will hopefully show the power of playing at home at tough venues where the home team prfevails most of the time and this time they only have to win the game and we tie at worst then.
#518 Kansas St P -110 (1)
Texas at 17-10 (8-6) and 13-13 ats scoring 72.5 ppg giving up 67.9 ppg for a diff of 4.6
Kansas St at 15-12 (4-10) and 14-9-1 ats scoring 70.9 ppg giving up 67.0 ppg for a diff of 3.9
Diff is so close, KS worth 4 at home, should be 3 to 4 fav imo at home. I'll take may chances with the home team. KS has been very competitive this season. Probably why they are 14-9-1 ats. They have lost 8 games by 10 or less points and two of them in Double Over Time.
Texas is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas State (we have a shot at it at home)
Kansas State is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home (just win the game)
Texas has looked really good at times this year and quite frankly have been a very hard team for me to figure out. Last game at home against Baylor for example: Ok, maybe lose, but to get your ass handed to you at home against a rival that you already beat once this year. (goes to show you how crazy and tough it's getting to be this time of year in hoops)
Kansas St lost 60-57 back in Jan at Texas. That was ages ago, but yet they were right there and now they are at home. I really like the edge of home court in very small spreads between conf teams that know each other inside and out.
#520 Wisc GB -13 -105 (1)
Cleve St at 8-20 (3-12) and 9-16-1 ats scoring 61.4 ppg giving up 68.3 ppg for a diff of -6.9
WGB at 17-11 (9-6) and 14-10-1 ats scoring 85.9 ppg giving up 82.6 ppg for a diff of 3.3
Diff of 10, WGB worth 3 at home, line is right, I like the explosive home team at 85.9 ppg against a team that is only scoring 61.4 ppg. (diff of 24.5 ppg)
Cleveland State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Wisc-Green Bay (the way WGB plays the game the could win by 20+) I really don't think in a conf like this that you are overlooking anyone, especially when the season is winding down. Now I don't know if WGB is good enough to make a run and win their conf tourney or not (I doubt it) but I do think they want to continue to run and gun so that maybe come the conf tournament they can out last their opponents.
A lot of it has to with Cleve St. They lsot the kitchen sink to graduation and injuries and many other reasons have led to a pretty pathetic season for CS hoops this year. I really do think that they are playing for next year already. Zollo suspension ahs hurt them and they just don't have the bench in my opinion to hang in this game.
Margins of defeat on the road in conf play by: 34, 23 their last two without Zollo, 2, 15, 17, 8, 18
Wisc-Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Wisc-Green Bay is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Cleveland State
FT discrepancy:
WGB: FTA: 779 FTM: 508 WBB with 320 more attempts: WGB with 200 more made ft's: (that's a major difference) free points, gets your opponent in foul trouble,
Cleve: FTA : 459 FTM: 308
If I lose I lose.
#522 Wis Milw -16 1/2 -110 (1)
Youngstown at 10-18 (5-10) and 11-13 ats scoring 76.1 ppg giving up 83.6 ppg for a diff of -7.5
Wisc Mil at 17-11 (8-7) and 12-13-1 ats scoring 78.9 ppg giving up 72.7 ppg for a diff of 6.2
Diff of 13 or so, Milw worth 3, line is close, every stat except steals in fav of Milw in this matchup.
Milw are 2-8 ats at home this year; (don't like it at all but yet bet them at home)
Milw got them at their place 81-65 by 16 so there is a chance that they can get them at home even worse. As I explained in the other Horizon game it's time to strengthen your style of play for conf tournament. Valpo will go at large even if they lose the conf tourney. The other teams only prayer is to win conf tourney.
Milw returned home after 5 straight conf games on the road and pounded Cleve St 88-54. Their next 3 are also at home. They have Valpo on deck 4 days after this game and close with Ill Chi. I just think they will take advantage of YS who have been without their best player Hain most of the season and now have another good one in Umede listed with and ankle injury as out indefinitely.
Could lose this big spread by YS playing their hearts out, Milw looking forward to Valpo. or the subs blowing it at the end. Not the smartest play to make but I played it anyway as I really think Milw is trying to get ready for a run and YS is most likely going no where this season.
#528 Norfolk St -13 -110 (1)
Coppin St at 7-19 (5-8) and 1-1 ats scoring 70.8 ppg giving up 80.6 ppg for a diff of -9.8
Norfolk St at 13-14 (9-3) and 3-3 ats scoring 73.5 ppg giving up 74.0 ppg for a diff of -0.5
Diff of 10, don't know what their value is at home so I'll give the mandatory 3, which gives us the lien of -13, spot on I guess,
First of all, I wouldn't have even looked at this game on a busy day. You seldom get lines on teams like this.
A tell for me is the amount of lines games teams play: In this case Coppin ST have played (2) lined games and Norfork (6) What that tells me is Norfolk St played the tougher non conf schedule. So then I look at their schedules and records and hope that maybe I can find a live one.
Norfolk St will play anybody. Their non conf scheduled featured games away
away:
South Carolina (14)
Cincy (15)
Evansville (14)
Alabama (19)
UTEP (won 9)
DePaul (4)
also played ISU, Ohio
anyway I think this team has been tested and this schedule prepared them for conf play
They beat Coppin at Coppin 88-56 (32) back in December and I see no reason why they can't beat them at home by at least 14 and hopefully more.
Norfolk is a game behind Howard in the conf and this is a game that they can't afford to slip up on.
Norfolk leads in almost every stat.
Copp St shooting 37.5 fg% compared to 42.5 fg% for Norf St.
Nor ST shooting ft's at 77.3% (like it)
So you don't have to play this off the wall game, but the way the crap shoot has been working out in the big time d-1 games this stands as good as chance as any of those hitting.
Good luck everyone
Iowa St at 19-8 (8-6) and 12-11-1 ats scoring 83.0 ppg giving up 75.1 ppg for a diff of 7.9
WV at 20-7 (9-5) and 14-10 ats scoring 79.3 ppg giving up 66.0 ppg for a diff of 13.3
Diff of 5, WV worth 4 to 5 at home, line is a couple points low, probably due to Miles still inures and listed as day to day, and Page did play last game all though not 100%. Throw in some revenge for Iowa St and this could be another close game in this conf. WV did get them 81-76 at Iowa St where they don't lose very often.
Iowa St at home averages: 86.2 ppg
Iowa St away averages: 78.1 ppg. (at WV where the defense have been know to be stingy, leads the conf in def scoring at 66 ppg and turnover margin at 4.5 per game. (like it)
Iowa St was out rebounded in its last game against TCU by 12, (TCU is last in the con in rebs) WV is first in rebs in conf with margin 0f +8.6 (like it)
WV tied for 2nd with a couple of other teams and two games behind Kansas. They have lost back to back games. I would be very surprised if a Huggins coached team loses its 3rd straight game.
In the stats I noticed that McKay (Iowa St) sat out the entire game even though he was available to play. Coach said he doesn't know if he will play him or not in this game. Obviously some distractions going on that team right now. Iowa St had 4 starters who played 34 minutes or more in their last game. WV will get to them if that's the case in this game.
So as always when I bet a WV game I have to sit there and cringe every time they go to the ft line. I guess that's the thrill of gambling that deep down we all get our kicks out of, or were just plain nuts anyway to bet on college kids.
#516 Miami F -1 -110 (1)
Virginia at 21-5 (10-4) and 12-12 ats scoring 71.1 ppg giving up 59.5 ppg for a diff of 11.6
Miami at 21-5 (10-4) and 15-9-1 ats scoring 76.8 ppg giving up 66.5 ppg for a diff of 10.
Diff of almost 2, MF worth 4 at home, I really think the line is in favor of MF. The line should be -3 imho. Virginia has really become a very popular betting team and their lines are almost always off in games. Probably why they are only 12-12 ats and 4-6 away ats. Meanwhile MF are 15-9 ats and 10-3-1 ats at home. Also, coming off the beating at NC most see them as not good as they thought. Once again it's that bounce around thing that is going on with most of the top teams this year. You can get caught up in listening to the media people who are really no different than me or you. These two teams are tied for 2nd place and only a game behind NC in conf play. This could and should be a game that determines the difference between #1 and # 3 seeds in the tournament.
Virginia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami (they can be beat, and this is one of the better MF teams)
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home (playing well at home)
Miami is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home (covering ats at home)
66-58 last time they played in Jan as Virginia took care of business at home. This game will hopefully show the power of playing at home at tough venues where the home team prfevails most of the time and this time they only have to win the game and we tie at worst then.
#518 Kansas St P -110 (1)
Texas at 17-10 (8-6) and 13-13 ats scoring 72.5 ppg giving up 67.9 ppg for a diff of 4.6
Kansas St at 15-12 (4-10) and 14-9-1 ats scoring 70.9 ppg giving up 67.0 ppg for a diff of 3.9
Diff is so close, KS worth 4 at home, should be 3 to 4 fav imo at home. I'll take may chances with the home team. KS has been very competitive this season. Probably why they are 14-9-1 ats. They have lost 8 games by 10 or less points and two of them in Double Over Time.
Texas is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas State (we have a shot at it at home)
Kansas State is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home (just win the game)
Texas has looked really good at times this year and quite frankly have been a very hard team for me to figure out. Last game at home against Baylor for example: Ok, maybe lose, but to get your ass handed to you at home against a rival that you already beat once this year. (goes to show you how crazy and tough it's getting to be this time of year in hoops)
Kansas St lost 60-57 back in Jan at Texas. That was ages ago, but yet they were right there and now they are at home. I really like the edge of home court in very small spreads between conf teams that know each other inside and out.
#520 Wisc GB -13 -105 (1)
Cleve St at 8-20 (3-12) and 9-16-1 ats scoring 61.4 ppg giving up 68.3 ppg for a diff of -6.9
WGB at 17-11 (9-6) and 14-10-1 ats scoring 85.9 ppg giving up 82.6 ppg for a diff of 3.3
Diff of 10, WGB worth 3 at home, line is right, I like the explosive home team at 85.9 ppg against a team that is only scoring 61.4 ppg. (diff of 24.5 ppg)
Cleveland State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Wisc-Green Bay (the way WGB plays the game the could win by 20+) I really don't think in a conf like this that you are overlooking anyone, especially when the season is winding down. Now I don't know if WGB is good enough to make a run and win their conf tourney or not (I doubt it) but I do think they want to continue to run and gun so that maybe come the conf tournament they can out last their opponents.
A lot of it has to with Cleve St. They lsot the kitchen sink to graduation and injuries and many other reasons have led to a pretty pathetic season for CS hoops this year. I really do think that they are playing for next year already. Zollo suspension ahs hurt them and they just don't have the bench in my opinion to hang in this game.
Margins of defeat on the road in conf play by: 34, 23 their last two without Zollo, 2, 15, 17, 8, 18
Wisc-Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Wisc-Green Bay is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Cleveland State
FT discrepancy:
WGB: FTA: 779 FTM: 508 WBB with 320 more attempts: WGB with 200 more made ft's: (that's a major difference) free points, gets your opponent in foul trouble,
Cleve: FTA : 459 FTM: 308
If I lose I lose.
#522 Wis Milw -16 1/2 -110 (1)
Youngstown at 10-18 (5-10) and 11-13 ats scoring 76.1 ppg giving up 83.6 ppg for a diff of -7.5
Wisc Mil at 17-11 (8-7) and 12-13-1 ats scoring 78.9 ppg giving up 72.7 ppg for a diff of 6.2
Diff of 13 or so, Milw worth 3, line is close, every stat except steals in fav of Milw in this matchup.
Milw are 2-8 ats at home this year; (don't like it at all but yet bet them at home)
Milw got them at their place 81-65 by 16 so there is a chance that they can get them at home even worse. As I explained in the other Horizon game it's time to strengthen your style of play for conf tournament. Valpo will go at large even if they lose the conf tourney. The other teams only prayer is to win conf tourney.
Milw returned home after 5 straight conf games on the road and pounded Cleve St 88-54. Their next 3 are also at home. They have Valpo on deck 4 days after this game and close with Ill Chi. I just think they will take advantage of YS who have been without their best player Hain most of the season and now have another good one in Umede listed with and ankle injury as out indefinitely.
Could lose this big spread by YS playing their hearts out, Milw looking forward to Valpo. or the subs blowing it at the end. Not the smartest play to make but I played it anyway as I really think Milw is trying to get ready for a run and YS is most likely going no where this season.
#528 Norfolk St -13 -110 (1)
Coppin St at 7-19 (5-8) and 1-1 ats scoring 70.8 ppg giving up 80.6 ppg for a diff of -9.8
Norfolk St at 13-14 (9-3) and 3-3 ats scoring 73.5 ppg giving up 74.0 ppg for a diff of -0.5
Diff of 10, don't know what their value is at home so I'll give the mandatory 3, which gives us the lien of -13, spot on I guess,
First of all, I wouldn't have even looked at this game on a busy day. You seldom get lines on teams like this.
A tell for me is the amount of lines games teams play: In this case Coppin ST have played (2) lined games and Norfork (6) What that tells me is Norfolk St played the tougher non conf schedule. So then I look at their schedules and records and hope that maybe I can find a live one.
Norfolk St will play anybody. Their non conf scheduled featured games away
away:
South Carolina (14)
Cincy (15)
Evansville (14)
Alabama (19)
UTEP (won 9)
DePaul (4)
also played ISU, Ohio
anyway I think this team has been tested and this schedule prepared them for conf play
They beat Coppin at Coppin 88-56 (32) back in December and I see no reason why they can't beat them at home by at least 14 and hopefully more.
Norfolk is a game behind Howard in the conf and this is a game that they can't afford to slip up on.
Norfolk leads in almost every stat.
Copp St shooting 37.5 fg% compared to 42.5 fg% for Norf St.
Nor ST shooting ft's at 77.3% (like it)
So you don't have to play this off the wall game, but the way the crap shoot has been working out in the big time d-1 games this stands as good as chance as any of those hitting.
Good luck everyone
Will take it. Could have been much better with a KS basket at the end of the game or a Iowa St basket at the end of the game for the 2nd half play.
recap: 4-3 +1.70
overall: 324-255 +56.90
1: 286-232 +31.85
2: 38-23 +25.05
#516 Miami F -1 -110 (1) W
#518 Kansas St P -110 (1) L
#520 Wisc GB -13 -105 (1) W
#522 Wis Milw -16 1/2 -110 (1) W
#528 Norfolk St -13 -110 (1) L
#524 WV -5 (2) W
Add:
2nd half: Iowa St +1 -110 (1) L
recap: 4-3 +1.70
overall: 324-255 +56.90
1: 286-232 +31.85
2: 38-23 +25.05
#516 Miami F -1 -110 (1) W
#518 Kansas St P -110 (1) L
#520 Wisc GB -13 -105 (1) W
#522 Wis Milw -16 1/2 -110 (1) W
#528 Norfolk St -13 -110 (1) L
#524 WV -5 (2) W
Add:
2nd half: Iowa St +1 -110 (1) L
Great day, United! Another + day is always NICE!k:
I did lean something, though. Norfolk State sucks badly.
Never will bet them again as a heavy favorite. If in same spot, I'll fade them.
See you on Tuesday! Continued success to you! :toast:
I hope to never see a line on them again. I thought I slipped one in there. They started out really bad and tied the thing up at half. They won the 2nd half by 8.
