#702 Virginia -12 -110
NCS at 13-12 (3-9) and 12-9-1 ats scoring 76.2 ppg giving up 73.2 ppg for a diff of 3.1
Virginia at 20-5 (9-4) and 11-12 ats scoring 71.0 ppg giving up 59.8 ppg for a diff of 11.2
Line is spot on with a diff of 8 and V worth another 4 at home. NCS has been a very good road team going 6-2-1 ats last 9 on the road. They have a big reb edge over Virginia and pound the offensive boards. They beat V last year by 4 at home. They have one heck of a player in Barber, 24 ppg and 4.5 rebs, and 4.5 assists a game. They aren't going dancing unless they would win the conf tournament.
Why V in tis game?
V is right in the hunt for the conf title. They are coming off a 1 point loss at Duke, where many thing they were screwed with Allen's shot counting at the end.(travel imo)
Virginia is 8-2 ats last 11 games following a straight up loss.(like the way they bounce back)
V shooting 49.4% fg, 75.3% ft, and 39.8 % from 3 pt land. V has the leading 3 pt shooter in the country.
NCS shoots 43.1% fg, 69.8% ft, and 34.6% from 3 pt land.
V riding a 17 game home winning streak, including 12-0 this year, and tied for 3rd in conf and still in the hunt for the title.
V ranks 3rd in the nation in scoring def (59.8) ppg, and their 49.4 % fg is ranks 8th and their 75.3% ft line is 16th.
I just think the will be ready at home here in conf crunch time and that superior half court D they play should help keep NCS score low enough to cover this dozen points a home.
#704 Wright St +1 -110
Oakland at 18-9 (10-4) and 16-5-1 ats scoring 87.1 ppg giving up 79.5 ppg for a diff of 7.6
Wright at 16-11 (10-4) and 11-13 ats scoring 67.9 ppg giving up 65.6 ppg for a diff of 2.3
A diff of 5, Wright St worth the mandatory 3 at home, the line could be Wright St +2. It's close anyway. Game is on ESPNU at 5:00 EST. I have no idea how many people attend wright St home games, and this really seems like a inconvenient time for Wright St fans that work. Almost everything points towards Oakland in this game. They have a 39.8 to 30.9 rebounding advantage over wright St. (big) They are 10-1-1 ats on the road, (amazing) On Jan they beat Wright St 89-63 at home. (smoked) Oakland 2nd in scoring 87.1 and 2nd in ftm at 545 for 77.3%. After I see all of this I wonder why Oakland is not a 5 point fav in this game. I alos wonder what the hell am I doing playing Wright St in this game.
Why Wright St for me?
Definitely against my principles on the rebs and ft shooting and Oakland lights up the score board and has played well away from home.
Wright St is a tough out at home. They are 7-0 i.n conf play at home with margins of 19, 1, 14, 11, 1, 36, and 17.
They are the only team to beat Valpo (twice now) in conf play this season.
Wright State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
I have a team that at least plays def (65.6) at home.
I like that Oak has Valpo on deck, maybe a little over look, I doubt it but I am liking the home team.
#708 Kansas -15 -110
Okl St at 12-13 (3-9) and 13-9-1 ats scoring 69.0 ppg giving up 65.9 ppg for a diff of 3.1
Kansas at 21-4 (9-3) and 15-8 ats scoring 82.7 ppg giving up 68.8 ppg for a diff of 13.8
Diff of 10-11, K worth 5 at home, line is right. That's certainly a hell of a lot of points to give a team that has already beaten you 86-67 back in Jan.
Okl St leads the conf in fg defense (39.8) and 2nd in def scoring at 65.9. Okl St in their last 4 games have held the opponent to 23 or less points in the 1st half.
Kansas averages 82.7 ppg. Kansas tied for the conf lead with WV. Kansas remembers the beating a couple of weeks back. I don't think Kansas will go into another rut like they did last time the beat Oklahoma (went 3-3 next 6 games)
Kansas has won 11 straight conf titles and are riding a 39 game winning streak at home, 37 of them at Allen field house, including 13-0 this year. They are 9-4 ats at home.
Okl St is still without Evans (who scored 22 points in Okl St last win over Kansas) that should help make a huge diff in this one at Kansas.
A lot of points to cover in a conf game, but I'm really thinking this has the potential to be a 20 point Kansas win. I will be ready for a half time play if I think it's warranted.
#720 Wichita St -15 -110
NMS at 18-8 (9-1) and 4-4 ats scoring 73.7 ppg giving up 64.5 ppg for a diff of 9.2
Wichita St at 18-7 (12-2) and 14-9 ats scoring 72.8 ppg giving up 60.4 ppg for a diff of 12.5
Diff of 3, Wichita St worth 4 at home, line should be 7-8 points. Or should it? NMS only has had 8 lined games, That in itself always makes me wonder about the schedule. This WAC conf has NMS at 9-1 and two other teams Grand Canyon and Cal-Baker at 8-2 in conf play. The other teams in that conf records are a combined 42-84. The point I'm getting at is that it's probably been awhile since NMS has played a very good basketball team on the road. This game is a make up from that snow storm a few weeks back. NMS just played St, and had to head out for this game on Sunday, and play again Thursday against 2nd place conf opponent Bakersfield. At least Wichita St should have gotten a lot more rest.
Wichita St beat them last year 71-54. Wichita St has lost 2 out of their last 3 games and had a record 43 game home streak broken by N. Iowa by 3.
Wichita St #21 in sos out of 351 teams.
WS 6th in scoring def at 60.4 ppg.
I would not trade WS two Senior guards (Vanvleet and Baker) for any other teams two guards in the country.
NMS has a player, a 6'9 soph (25 years old) from some country who is a tear on the boards and averages a double double.
NMS riding a 9 game winning streak, (weak conf) but still tough to do anytime.
I see two possible scenarios for this game: ONE, a slow half court grind game, witch would favor NMS and help to take the crowd out of the game, TWO: Wichita St comes out after losing at home and playing sluggish their last two games and just jumps all over NMS from start to finish. I'm going with #2. Although WS has a two game conf lead, they could get beat in the conf tourney. WS right now is no guarantee to get an out large bid because of their major early struggles in non-conf play. A loss here would hurt them a lot more if they were to lose their conf tournament. Now I really do think they would get a at large bid anyway, no guarantees, and If I were their coach that is what I would be telling them.
#706 WGB -1 1/2 -110
Wisc Milw at 16-10 (7-6) and 11-13 ats scoring 79.0 ppg giving up 73.5 ppg for a diff of 5.5
Wisc GB at 15-11 (7-6) and 13-10 ats scoring 85.7 ppg giving up 82.9 ppg for a diff of 2.8
Line is close, was hoping for a pick but still will play the home team in this one. Speaking of the home team, do they have a home? Their last game at home was Jan 25. 5 straight conf road games, who in the hell makes out their schedule. That's brutal! Wait a minute! Is this right? Wisc Milw will be playing their 5 th straight conf road game. That is brutal!
GB went 2-3 in that stretch with the opening loss of that brutal stretch of conf at Milw by a point.
Wilw are 1-3 with this game left in their brutal stretch.
Anyway, on to the game.
Wisc-Green Bay is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home (play well at home)
Wisc-Green Bay is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Wisc-Milwaukee (wish it was stronger but just win)
I'll probably wish I just would have played the over in this game, but I didn't so be it.
GB have won 6 out of the last 9 in this series.
GB finally home, as they have played 17 road games this season already.
GB 3rd in the NCAA in steals. (I like the aggressiveness of this team)
GB have attempted an NCCA best (760 ft and have hit 496) to bad the only shoot 65.3% form the line, hoping that will be better at home instead of on the road.
Point is: they get to the ft line for free points. Their guard draw fouls. Fouls get you in the bonus early. Fouls get players in foul trouble and then they lose playing time sitting on the bench. (like this advantage)
So whether it be a little revenge for a 1 point loss, finally at home, getting to the line, rival opponent, all of the combined have helped make my decision to go play GB in this one.
Good luck everyone
