I like to bet them against the really weak conferences. Players from the big fav teams (8-12) are usually just as good as starters from the weaker team. I also look at those teams past games from the past 3 years to see how bad they get beat when they play a big name D-1 team. Knowing the coaches (which one's like to continue playing hard and which ones call off the dogs and just run set plays after they get out to a big lead)
As far as your question on my success rate with teams 20 + spreads: I have no exact records on that. Heck, I'm lucky if I can get through a full slate of games with all I have going on and trying to keep a updated posting record is tough enough. This year I'm not posting the -105 through -115. I'm just using -110 to make it easier on myself.
I always try to tell posters to always bet reasonably. I'm very streaky in hoops and that's the chance you take when you choose to follow someone else's plays.
I hope that helped a little.
