Anytime I think it can't get worse....I get 2.5 points of line value and still lose. Might be time to shut it down. Let's see how this week goes.
10/11/2019 (27-35-3, -10.75)
Wake Forest -7 (-105), 1 unit: Demon Deacon pass offense is too much for the Cardinals. Wake has been bad off a bye. I trust Clawson to make the adjustments to figure it out.
Texas Longhorns +11, 2 units: This game is usually close. Herman as a DD underdog? Yes, please.
Ole Miss Rebels +12.5, 1 unit: The QB change has the Rebels offense running nicely. They won't win this one but they will test a good Tigers D.
Tennessee Volunteers +7 (-115), 1 unit: Finally a winnable game for the Vols. QB change has given them a spark and this is a back against the wall game for Pruitt.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +11, 1 unit: Both teams coming off good wins. Double digits in a game where both teams can score at will? Sure.
LSU Tigers -13.5, 1 unit: Asking Trask to go into Death Valley and win off a huge win over Auburn is too much. Tigers won't turn the ball over like Auburn did.
USC Trojans +10.5, 1 unit: Slovis being back is a difference maker. Irish will score but Trojans will get theirs as well. Bye week and Michigan on tap for ND.
Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5, 2 units: Kinnick. At night. Getting points. Off an embarassing loss. Nittany Lions are yet to be tested against a good team.
San Diego State Aztecs -4, 1 unit: Cowboys are 4-1 and have given up more yards than they've gained. Tough Aztec D wins this one.
10/11/2019 (27-35-3, -10.75)
Wake Forest -7 (-105), 1 unit: Demon Deacon pass offense is too much for the Cardinals. Wake has been bad off a bye. I trust Clawson to make the adjustments to figure it out.
Texas Longhorns +11, 2 units: This game is usually close. Herman as a DD underdog? Yes, please.
Ole Miss Rebels +12.5, 1 unit: The QB change has the Rebels offense running nicely. They won't win this one but they will test a good Tigers D.
Tennessee Volunteers +7 (-115), 1 unit: Finally a winnable game for the Vols. QB change has given them a spark and this is a back against the wall game for Pruitt.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +11, 1 unit: Both teams coming off good wins. Double digits in a game where both teams can score at will? Sure.
LSU Tigers -13.5, 1 unit: Asking Trask to go into Death Valley and win off a huge win over Auburn is too much. Tigers won't turn the ball over like Auburn did.
USC Trojans +10.5, 1 unit: Slovis being back is a difference maker. Irish will score but Trojans will get theirs as well. Bye week and Michigan on tap for ND.
Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5, 2 units: Kinnick. At night. Getting points. Off an embarassing loss. Nittany Lions are yet to be tested against a good team.
San Diego State Aztecs -4, 1 unit: Cowboys are 4-1 and have given up more yards than they've gained. Tough Aztec D wins this one.
10/19/2019 (35-38-4, -5.10)
Tulane Green Wave +3.5, 2 units
Oklahoma State Cowboys -4, 2 units
Virginia Cavaliers -3 (-120), 1 unit
Washington Huskies +2.5 (+100), 1 unit
Florida Gators -4.5, 1 unit
Rice Owls -4.5, 1 unit
Ole Miss Rebels +6, 1 unit
North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5, 1 unit
SMU Mustangs -9, 1 unit
Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5, 1 unit
Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5, 1 unit
Tulane Green Wave +3.5, 2 units
Oklahoma State Cowboys -4, 2 units
Virginia Cavaliers -3 (-120), 1 unit
Washington Huskies +2.5 (+100), 1 unit
Florida Gators -4.5, 1 unit
Rice Owls -4.5, 1 unit
Ole Miss Rebels +6, 1 unit
North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5, 1 unit
SMU Mustangs -9, 1 unit
Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5, 1 unit
Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5, 1 unit
Thanks indy.....just an awful season so far. Hopefully the turn around starts now.
10/26/2019 (38-45-4, -13.00)
Wisconsin Badgers +14, 1 unit: Getting a little value after the Badger disaster last week. Best team the Buckeyes have played. Bad weather expected.
Army Black Knights -9.5, 1 unit: Spartans come east for an early start against an option team. They can't stop the run and I look for the Black Knights to control the clock and have their way with San Jose State.
Northwestern Wildcats +8.5, 1 unit: Hawkeyes dealing with a lot of injuries. If Wildcats have any pride it will show against a team they usually play very close.
Utah State Aggies +3 (-105), 1 unit: Aggies are strong and disciplined against the run. Their offense will be a huge challenge for the Falcons as Love is the best QB the Falcons have seen this year.
Michigan State Spartans +5, 1 unit: Potential let down for the Nittany Lions after a big win last week. Spartans coming off an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin and a bye to think about it. Max effort from Michigan State here.
Kansas State Wildcats +22.5, 1 unit: Sooners are going to win this one but this is a lot of points to give a ball control team with a good defense in a tough home environment.
Maryland Terrapins +16, 1 unit: Gophers are smoke and mirrors and now the pressure is on them to win the B10W. Line isn't taking the return of Terrapins QB and starting RB into account.
Pittsburgh Panthers -5, 1 unit: Two teams moving in different directions. Panthers have tough D and Hurricane QB Perry is not healthy. Panthers with extra rest as well.
Kansas Jayhawks +5, 1 unit: Impressed with the change in the Jayhawks offense. Red Raiders have played 4 big games in a row. Great place for a let down.
Auburn Tigers +10, 1 unit: The home town Tigers are the better team but they have not faced a D like the visiting Tigers. If Nix protects the football Auburn will be in the number the whole game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish PK, 1 unit: Still no reason to believe in the Wolverines. Another heartbreaker for Michigan last week while the Fighting Irish rested and game planned. Huge coaching and QB advantages as well.
10/26/2019 (38-45-4, -13.00)
Wisconsin Badgers +14, 1 unit: Getting a little value after the Badger disaster last week. Best team the Buckeyes have played. Bad weather expected.
Army Black Knights -9.5, 1 unit: Spartans come east for an early start against an option team. They can't stop the run and I look for the Black Knights to control the clock and have their way with San Jose State.
Northwestern Wildcats +8.5, 1 unit: Hawkeyes dealing with a lot of injuries. If Wildcats have any pride it will show against a team they usually play very close.
Utah State Aggies +3 (-105), 1 unit: Aggies are strong and disciplined against the run. Their offense will be a huge challenge for the Falcons as Love is the best QB the Falcons have seen this year.
Michigan State Spartans +5, 1 unit: Potential let down for the Nittany Lions after a big win last week. Spartans coming off an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin and a bye to think about it. Max effort from Michigan State here.
Kansas State Wildcats +22.5, 1 unit: Sooners are going to win this one but this is a lot of points to give a ball control team with a good defense in a tough home environment.
Maryland Terrapins +16, 1 unit: Gophers are smoke and mirrors and now the pressure is on them to win the B10W. Line isn't taking the return of Terrapins QB and starting RB into account.
Pittsburgh Panthers -5, 1 unit: Two teams moving in different directions. Panthers have tough D and Hurricane QB Perry is not healthy. Panthers with extra rest as well.
Kansas Jayhawks +5, 1 unit: Impressed with the change in the Jayhawks offense. Red Raiders have played 4 big games in a row. Great place for a let down.
Auburn Tigers +10, 1 unit: The home town Tigers are the better team but they have not faced a D like the visiting Tigers. If Nix protects the football Auburn will be in the number the whole game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish PK, 1 unit: Still no reason to believe in the Wolverines. Another heartbreaker for Michigan last week while the Fighting Irish rested and game planned. Huge coaching and QB advantages as well.
Made some changes to the model. Let's see if it helps.
11/2/2019 (41-53-4, -18.75)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.5, 1 unit
Boston College +3.5, 1 unit
USC Trojans +5, 1 unit
Colorado Buffaloes +7 (-120), 1 unit
Kansas Jayhawks +6, 1 unit
Memphis Tigers -5.5, 1 unit
Tennessee Volunteers -12 (-115), 1 unit
Georgia Bulldogs -6, 1 unit
Miami Hurricanes +3, 1 unit
Utah Utes -3 (-115), 1 unit
11/2/2019 (41-53-4, -18.75)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.5, 1 unit
Boston College +3.5, 1 unit
USC Trojans +5, 1 unit
Colorado Buffaloes +7 (-120), 1 unit
Kansas Jayhawks +6, 1 unit
Memphis Tigers -5.5, 1 unit
Tennessee Volunteers -12 (-115), 1 unit
Georgia Bulldogs -6, 1 unit
Miami Hurricanes +3, 1 unit
Utah Utes -3 (-115), 1 unit
11/7/2019 (48-57-4, -16.25)
South Florida Bulls +1.5, 1 unit
Oregon State Beavers +10, 1 unit
West Virginia Mountaineers +2.5 (-115), 1 unit
Louisville Cardinals +7, 1 unit
Appalachian State Mountaineers +6 (-105), 1 unit
Arizona State Sun Devils -1.5 (-115), 1 unit
Baylor Bears -2 (-115), 1 unit
Iowa State Cyclones +14.5, 1 unit
San Jose State Spartans +8, 1 unit
Penn State Nittany Lions/Alabama Crimson Tide (+104), 1 unit
South Florida Bulls +1.5, 1 unit
Oregon State Beavers +10, 1 unit
West Virginia Mountaineers +2.5 (-115), 1 unit
Louisville Cardinals +7, 1 unit
Appalachian State Mountaineers +6 (-105), 1 unit
Arizona State Sun Devils -1.5 (-115), 1 unit
Baylor Bears -2 (-115), 1 unit
Iowa State Cyclones +14.5, 1 unit
San Jose State Spartans +8, 1 unit
Penn State Nittany Lions/Alabama Crimson Tide (+104), 1 unit
11/23/2019 (58-67-4, -15.15)
(122) Indiana Hoosiers +9, 1 unit
(125) Texas A&M Aggies +13, 1 unit
(143) Illinois Fighting Illini +15, 2 units
(149) Minnesota Golden Gophers -13, 1 unit
(152) Arizona State Sun Devils +14, 1 unit
(178) Baylor Bears -6, 1 unit
(180) Tulane Green Wave +6 (-115), 1 unit
(194) Tulsa Golden Hurricane -3 (-105), 1 unit
(212) Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5, 1 unit
(214) Utah State Aggies +9.5, 1 unit
(122) Indiana Hoosiers +9, 1 unit
(125) Texas A&M Aggies +13, 1 unit
(143) Illinois Fighting Illini +15, 2 units
(149) Minnesota Golden Gophers -13, 1 unit
(152) Arizona State Sun Devils +14, 1 unit
(178) Baylor Bears -6, 1 unit
(180) Tulane Green Wave +6 (-115), 1 unit
(194) Tulsa Golden Hurricane -3 (-105), 1 unit
(212) Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5, 1 unit
(214) Utah State Aggies +9.5, 1 unit
11/29/2019 and 11/30/2019 (64-71-4, -12.50)
(316) Virginia Cavaliers +2, 1 unit
(328) Nebraska Cornhuskers +6 (-115), 1 unit
(332) Memphis Tigers -11, 1 unit
(339) Washington State Huskies +7.5, 1 unit
(349) Boston College Eagles +8 (+100), 1 unit
(377) Colorado Buffaloes +28, 1 unit
(393) Texas A&M Aggies +16.5, 1 unit
(395) Louisville Cardinals +3, 1 unit
(398) Auburn Tigers +3.5 (-115), 1 unit
(404) Illinois Fighting Illini -8, 1 unit
(414) SMU Mustangs -4, 1 unit
(433) Army Black Knights +2.5, 1 unit
(316) Virginia Cavaliers +2, 1 unit
(328) Nebraska Cornhuskers +6 (-115), 1 unit
(332) Memphis Tigers -11, 1 unit
(339) Washington State Huskies +7.5, 1 unit
(349) Boston College Eagles +8 (+100), 1 unit
(377) Colorado Buffaloes +28, 1 unit
(393) Texas A&M Aggies +16.5, 1 unit
(395) Louisville Cardinals +3, 1 unit
(398) Auburn Tigers +3.5 (-115), 1 unit
(404) Illinois Fighting Illini -8, 1 unit
(414) SMU Mustangs -4, 1 unit
(433) Army Black Knights +2.5, 1 unit
