NCAA CFB 0ct 21st - Oct 23rd

[SHSUHorn]

For those that have been asking my record over the years, these plays were all posted at covers in the last 3 years…

NCAA CFB 2002-2003 (1-5 unit plays)
118-88 +70.28 UNITS ($7,028)

NCAA CFB 2003-2004 (1-5 unit plays)
125-109 +85.42 UNITS ($8,542)

NCAA CFB 2004-2005 (1-8 unit plays, one ten unit play)
103-94 +30.08 UNITS ($3,008)

Plays include pleasers, parlays, props, sides, and totals…

1 unit for me equals $100…

Tough week last week for me. Went 6-8 and loss 11.37 units. Lets turn that around this week!

NEW MEXICO –4 (-114) (5 UNITS)

How will the Aztecs bounce back after being robbed against CSU on what was obvious not a fumble and cost them the ball game?

SDSU now goes on the road to face a Lobo team that is 12-5 ATS vs conference foes over the last three seasons. Also a Lobo team that has beaten them three years in a row.

With QB Kole McCamey and RB Dontrell Moore healthy for the first time in four games, New Mexico is reeled off a 284-yard rushing day at UNLV.

Freshman Kevin O’Connell gets the start at QB replacing the injured Matt Dlugoleki. While you can say O’Connell played well in the late comeback attempt by the Aztecs…CSU doesn’t have as good of a defense as the Lobos. Mind you the Lobos have faced Utah and Texas Tech, who usually help inflate your defensive statistics.

Another key match-up for this game will be how the Aztec offensive line holds up against the blitzing attacking style of Rocky Long. The Aztecs have had six injuries on the line so far, and have had a new starting lineup every week. Possibly three of the starters on the offensive line will be freshmen and two walk-on players that are backups to all of the positions.

Problems on the offensive line, a freshman QB starting his first, all on the road gives me the confidence that the Lobos will keep the Aztecs in check, and give a struggling offense enough field position to cover the low number.

More to come...

 

[WahooSports]

damn Horn, you beat me to the punch, this is my favorite on the board this week, we both have it, that means winner:aktion033

 

[Irishguy44]

GL with this play Horn! IMO, Moore is the key to this team so he needs to be healthy

 

[SHSUHorn]

irish, couldn't agree with you more. GL to you this weekend.

 

[Budworth22]

Horn, I considered the other side.

Remember, this SD State D-line dominated a talented Michigan Line. If they can stop the run with their line, it will be a long long day for the Lobo's. You listed several reasons for taking New Mexico, and they are legit. I just see this as a low scoring game, and Would sooner recieve than give points. That said, i will refrain from playing a side here, and I am considering the under. Remember NM hosting Wasu, they sat on the football, and didn't try to pass at all towards the end. I noted that they "Holtzed it" in my notebook. Good luck with this as always.

Horn, a nice teaser to start your weekend. Pinnacle, 3 team 10 Pt teaser. WVU -6.5, Louisville -19.5, and USF/LOU over 47. I'm playing them all anyways, and I really see value in this teaser. 6% of my account on it.

BTW, what is the story with Texas? I see them going and running the ball down TTech's throats. They have a NFL efensive coordinator, and theres a reason you don't see gimmick offense like Ttech's in the NFL. Why are they a FG favorite?

My FSU update- Players are healthier than last week. Travis Johnson and Sims are my players of the week on defense. Sexton who was 24-26 (4 horrible drops), is my offensive. He made only 3 incorect reads, completing 2 of them.

Bud.

 

[SHSUHorn]

NM has a pretty huge OL, and I'll take Dontrell Moore over any UM RB right now.

Just don't like what I see from the SDSU OL. Rocky Long throws alot of different looks at you on defense. Could be a lot of confusion on O with a FR QB and an OL that has had a different lineup every game so far this year.

Plus SDSU has only converted 28-100 3rd downs, and NM is ranked 17th in the country in turnover margin. Field position and turnovers are going to be huge in this contest.

Texas has the worst offensive coordinator in football and most Longhorn fans new that...now the national media has finally caught on. For years he's had the benefit of Roy Williams, BJ Johnson, and Sloan Thomas running his routes for him. Now they are all gone and the new WRs look horrible.

They loss thier top WR in spring ball due to injury. Tony Jeffrey the only senior and only player with any experince has a hurt shoulder. Eric Enard who was probably the most impressive WR in the spring left the team to focus on his engineering degree.

That leaves a RS FR, and a couple of other true freshman playing WR. Yeah, yeah Young looks like crap, but did you see when Chance Mock (the supposed way better passer) came in? HE ACTUALLY LOOKED WORSE THEN YOUNG THROWING THE BALL!

Recievers are running wrong routes, bad routes, and their timing with the QB is just horrible.

It all comes down to coaching...and the job is just not getting done.

 

[SHSUHorn]

***ADDING***

MISSOURI –3 (-119) (6 UNITS)

OSU IMO is a poor mans Texas right now. Texas and OSU look so much the same right now its scary. Both have a great offensive line up front and a talented tailback. Both teams have running QBs that are unproven in the passing department and even worse have unproven wideouts.

The only thing is Texas has better players on both sides of the ball then OSU. I was impressed by Mizzu and how they held the line of scrimmage and shut down for the most part the second-best rushing attack in the country. Look for Mizzu to use the same game plan it had against Texas against OSU and show that its #8 overall defensive ranking is legit.

If Texas doesn’t score 14 points off of turnovers Mizzu wins this game easily in Austin. Now the Tigers get the benefit of playing at home where they’ve been a totally different team. 12-3 SU at home the last three seasons under Brad Smith at QB.

Speaking of Brad Smith, he’s still one of the best dual QBs in the country and IMO better then Reggie McNeal at this point in their careers. With that being said McNeal did whatever he wanted passing for over two hundred yards and running for close to 100 yards vs OSU last week in Stillwater. The Aggies jumped out to a huge 27-6 halftime lead and never looked back.

I just think OSU one-dimensional offense will get exposed much like it did vs A&M last week, and much like Mizzu exposed Texas’. OSU couldn’t stop McNeil at home…could be the same story again this week against Brad Smith on his turf.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

Horn,

Good info. here, good luck this week...

 

[SHSUHorn]

Thanks pags. GL to you as well.

 

[charliepeete]

when does your final list come out?????

i was with u last week which started off great with three winners and then the wheels feel off, got even with the nfl, hard to believe, gl to u this weekend i am with you again

 

[SHSUHorn]

Charlie,

I should hopefully be done here shortly. Bad week last Saturday for many including myself (went 6-8). Then go figure I have my best day in the NFL this year going 5-1. The gambling gods act in mysterious ways sometimes...

 

[vegasjunkie]

Horn, I need a good 4 team parley. have you got 4 real good ones for me? GL this week, on both NMEX & MISSOURI. Who do you like Thur.? Vegasjunkie:aktion033

 

[SHSUHorn]

Vegas, I hate parlays man. Throwing your money away. I'd maybe do a teaser or play four plays straight up. Still looking at the weekday games, becuase the line moves were tremendous and I didn't get down on any of them. I like Wyoming against CSU for the Friday game.

 

[SHSUHorn]

**ADDING**

TEXAS A&M –19 (-112) (5 UNITS)

Actually pounded this line at 12.5 when it opened at Pinnacle for $500. Couldn’t believe they opened the line that low, but I’ll go ahead and use the current line because I really don’t think its going to matter. A&M is going to blow CU out of the water.

There may not be a hotter team or QB in the country then the Aggies and Reggie McNeal. Last week McNeal lit up OSU completing 19-25 and three of those incompletes hit the receivers dead in the chest, and two incompletes were from him throwing the ball away because he was outside the pocket. Only 1 bad throw all afternoon for McNeil. That was against a pretty good OSU defense and in Stillwater. Did I also mention that the kid nearly ran for over 100 yards in the game as well?

The Buffs now come to Kyle Field with the worst defense in the Big 12, and having just given up 403 total yards to Iowa St. Colorado has been good defensively in the red zone, but look for that to change as A&M has scored 16 TDs in its last 17 red zone attempts.

Another big reason the Aggies are hitting on all cylinders are because they are playing mistake free football right now. They only have 1 turnover in 6 games. Reggie McNeal is the only starting Div I QB who has not thrown an interception this year.

Just not sure how the Buffs are going to keep up with the Aggie offense in Kyle Field. They have a RB in Bobby Purify who has been banged up all year and may or may not get to play and a QB in Joel Klatt who’s just been awful this year. Partly because he has no WR with any big play potential, and partly because his confidence is shot. Klatt who has a 3 to 7 TD to INT ratio was benched last week and while he did come in late in the game to lead the Buffs to victory over woeful ISU, he threw 2 more interceptions.

A&M in a romp!

 

[Irishguy44]

I like A & M in this matchup but I always hate laying a ton of points, especially after the line moves that much. Horn, you know know of any stats on how well the Faves do when a line moves 3 or more points within days of the lines coming out? If you dont know, is there anybody who could find this information?

 

[vegasjunkie]

Horn, Thanks man. I usually play a parley and flat all games and throw in a teaser now and then. I'm usually good for 3out4. I'll try anything to win man! Thanks for the info Good Luck this week!! I need a good week myself, in a funk right now. Have a good one man.

 

[Budworth22]

Vegas

I know this isn't my thread, but what I usually do it I take and put 85% on the plays individually, and then I do 15% on them in 2's, and 4's (Usually about 12% on the 2's, and 3% on the 4's). I like the added juice, and I don't feel that I need to hit them all to win. I expect t have a winning record every week, and that's why I do it.
Bud

 

[vegasjunkie]

Thanks Bud. I'll try that this week. Appreciate the work. Vegas

 

[cha-ching]

HORN, followed over from covers,great write ups.. continue the good success

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Good luck this weekend, Erik. Anything stand out on Saturday yet? I think I'm on the other side of your boys this weekend in Lubbock.

GL!
:drink: