NCAA baskets for the week of 2/16

[ATX]

BC +9 for .4%

 

[Kojak]

I am with you on BC and best of luck.

 

[ATX]

ND +7 for .5%

 

[ATX]

canisius +6 for .6%

 

[Mookdog]

Joined you on Canisius - wish I'd waited for the move to 6. Also like BC, but not ND. Good luck.

 

[ATX]

good luck to ya

OU +2.5 for .6%
same at +2 but get 2, I feel the 2 is worth more than 10 cents here

 

[ATX]

Purdue +7 for .5%

 

[ATX]

tenn martin +10 for .3%

 

[ATX]

Kansas -24 for .6%

 

[jcambert]

Do you have, by an chance, a record YTD that you keep track of? Just curious. And, the percentages that you suggest are bankroll percentages?

JP

 

[ATX]

I dont keep records or ytd all the time

I track money

money is important win% is an afterthought and I play dog ml's so it's a little different

I updated my NBA since mid Jan and will post it when I have a chance, NCAA is good, maybe 60% this year, fwiw, my model is based on a return % per month/year at the same time reducing risk. Playoff subsets typically return 20% so that is something I also have configured.

ILL -4 for .6%

 

[jcambert]

Ok, what type of percentage of bankroll do you normally make on a per season, per sport basis? Just curious, as I like your conservative approach.
JP

 

[ATX]

I'll try to respond to this later on. There isnt a simple answer, but this is a very profitable market.

COL +1 or pk for .6%

 

[ATX]

UAB +4 or 3.5 for .5%

 

[jcambert]

I'm not sure I understand. If you say .6% and it loses, wouldn't you simply subract .66% from your running total and if it wins, add .6% to the running total? Surely you have records, if you know enough to say it's profitable. How do you know it's profitable if you don't have records?

 

[ATX]

everything is a percentage of bankroll, everything is risk...not "to win".

I have plenty of records, which is why I no longer feel compulsive about keeping them. It's no longer about if I win, but how much, and about diversifying risk such that during losing streaks I am not affected mentally.

marquette +5 for .5%

wake forest +4 for .5%

 

[ATX]

Hawaii +5.5 for .5%

 

[jcambert]

So, what is the number in your records, in terms of net bankroll percent won or lost?
JP

[This message was edited by jcambert on February 18, 2004 at 09:46 PM.]

 

[ATX]

J,

I prefer to focus more on what is in front of me than what has been accomplished

but to get a general perspective about what I refer to below, glance at previous playoff threads from MLB, NBA and NFL (2003, I wasnt around much this year during that time).

these subsets have totalled an average of more than 20% each. I also have angles and drunken LOCK wagers on which I wager more etc.

last year this was my model:

3000 wagers
54% win percentage (goal)
shopping for lines AND VIG

at -110 and an avg wager of 1% on each:

1620 wins to 1380 losses and 138 for vig
1620 minus 1518 equals 102 net wins and at 1% on each that was my goal last year. I also wager a variable percentage of each on the moneyline for dogs. I often lay less than -110 on bets. I dont count on playoff subsets and/or angles or drunken LOCKS. I sometimes will wager up to 5% of BR on a game usually in the playoffs, for a good reason, and after I am ahead for that subset.

some days I bet on 1 game, on others I will take more than 20. any wager I feel has a 53% chance of winning I take. I dont care about thumping my chest too much, I expect to win. After a playoff run, and the end of a season I reflect and celebrate. baseball, baskets, football, hockey and a planned attack on soccer (where I have an incredible 2-0 lifetime record

). There is always room for improvement. The forums are entertaining.

 

[ATX]

MD -2 -117 for .6%