10* Clemson/UNC over 11.5 (Lock of Millenium)
5* Clemson -165
2* Clemson -1.5 +109
First of all, relax. I'm not a fortune-teller. I don't have a crystal ball, and there are no guarantees. I'm just a guy who knows the game playing percentages. And percentages and analysis and more is telling me that 9 times out of 10 this matchup goes over the total, and 7 times out of 10, Clemson wins this baseball game tonight. I'm up over 65 units in this post-season of college ball and I'm putting roughly 20 of them at risk on this game. Even if all of these plays lose tonight, and we have a terrible night, you should still be up big around 40 units for college ball. If you havn't been following along with all of my plays, I suggest lowering your unit amount. Clemson side should be played about half of the Clemson total, IMO. And a small stab on that runline, because I don't think we've seen any 1-run games in awhile. Please bet within your limits, anything can lose. I have no inside information, the game is not fixed, and Skip Bertman didnt visit me in my dreams last night.
Let's write this thing up.
Clemson with a major advantage at starting pitching tonight, IMO, AND bullpen. Clemson also with a nice defensive advantage as North Carolina is the 2nd most erratic defense behind GA Tech in this thing. North Carolina is capable of blowing up like Tech's 8 run 8th at any moment with their pen and defense. Both teams with outstanding offense that needs good pitchers to hold them down.
Clemson has won 25 of their past 26 games, and I don't see that slowing down tonight. Plus, this team has heart, and they have a "we can't lose" mentality. They battled back with a bottom of 9 grand slam in the supers to win it, and they battled back down 4-0 in the 8th.
Now, Clemson as I mentioned in the past has solid starters, but not dominant starters. Faris, is one of those. Faris and Cribb are Clemson's "aces", ace1a and ace 1b. Neither are dominant. Faris goes tonight. RHP. Throws 3 good pitches, but no overpowering fastball. North Carolina should have an easier time with Faris after facing a guy like Roemer. I was impressed with NC's offense after putting up runs so fast on Roemer. And I think they'll be able to put up at least 4-6 runs tonight on Clemson. I think Clemson will be able to put up 7+. Woodard is nothing special, and UNCs pen gets even worse outside of their closer Carginan.
Faris is better than his opposition though. North Carolina starts Woodard, sort of by default because of how bad Bard can be. Woodard is steady, but nothing special. He's not going to walk people, he throws strikes, nothing over-powering. They have Andrew Miller #1 pick, and then it's up for grabs. They have Bard and Woodard behind Miller, Bard was a 1st rounder, but he's so erratic they dont even want to pitch him, and they gave the steady Woodard the nod.
Woodard 6-1, 3.48 ERA, 95 IP, 98 hits, opp bat .267 off him. Clemson isnt your average offense.
Important stat about Woodard: only 47 K's in 95 IP. He's not striking guys out. That might be ok for some guys in the bigs, but with the metal bats, you need to miss barrels and get critical strikeouts when you are in these bases loaded no out jams. Woodard relies too much on hitters getting themselves out, and Clemson is an offense where if they put the bat on the ball, they sting it hard.
Woodard doesnt have a good defense behind him. UNC makes 2-4 errors a game. And if you have a guy like Woodard who relies on defense, it can get ugly.
Now, I thought UNC played the game of their life the other night, holding Fullerton in check throughout that game. And I really dont think they can pull that off two games in a row. Also, you have an UNC team that played the late-game, went deep into extra innings, and on the flip side you have a well-rested Clemson team that played the day-game, and is focused, rested and ready to go. Is UNC happy just to get by Fullerton in that extra inning marathon?
Clemson is the better team here, they have won their last 25 of 26 for a reason, they are the higher national seed, with the better pitcher, better defense, and better bullpen.